Perego, A., Giussani, A., Sanna, M., Fumagalli, M., Carozzi, M., Alfieri, L., et al. (2013). The ARMOSA simulation crop model: overall features, calibration and validation results. Italian Journal of Agrometeorology, 3, 23–38.
Abstract: ARMOSA is a dynamic simulation model which was developed to simulate crop growth and development, water and nitrogen dynamics under different pedoclimatic conditions and cropping systems in the arable land. The model is meant to be a tool for the evaluation of the impact of different crop management practices on soil nitrogen and carbon cycles and groundwater nitrate pollution. A large data set collected over three to six years from six monitoring sites in Lombardia plain was used to calibrate and validate the model parameters. Measured meteorological data, soil chemical and physical characterizations, crop-related data of different cropping systems allowed for a proper parameterization. Fit indexes showed the reliability of the model in adequately predicting crop-related variables, such as above ground biomass (RRMSE=11.18, EF=0.94, r=0.97), Leaf Area Index maximum value (RRMSE=8.24, EF=0.37, r=0.72), harvest index (RRMSE=19.4, EF=0.32, r=0.74), and crop N uptake (RRMSE=20.25, EF=0.69, r=0.85). Using two different one-year data set from each monitoring site, the model was calibrated and validated, getting to encouraging results: RRMSE=6.28, EF=0.52, r=0.68 for soil water content at different depths, and RRMSE=34.89, EF=0.59, r=0.75 for soil NO3-N content along soil profile. The simulated N leaching was in full agreement with measured data (RRMSE=26.62, EF=0.88, r=0.98).
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Nieróbca, A., Kozyra, J., Doroszewski, A., & Zylowska, K. (2014). The agro-meteorological model for yields of winter triticale..
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Rosenzweig, C., Jones, J. W., Hatfield, J. L., Ruane, A. C., Boote, K. J., Thorburn, P., et al. (2013). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, 166–182.
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Dono, G., Cortignani, R., Doro, L., & Roggero, P. P. (2014). The adaptation of farm and awareness of ongoing climate change (CC). FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Farm planning is based on awareness of climate variability, here assumed to depend on experience gained over the years, and to generate expectations on climatic variables. Expectations are based on probability distributions (pdfs) estimated on climate data and used to generate managing choices by means of Discrete Stochastic Programming. The model simulates the income losses in case farmers do not recognize the ongoing CC, and continue to plan assuming climate stability. In particular, the use of resources in 2010 is simulated based on the pdfs of the early 2000s, despite CC has changed the probabilities of the various states of nature. The model, calibrated with Positive Mathematical Programming, generates a 0.9% income increase when is allowed to adapt to 2010 climate pdfs. The model is also calibrated according to pdfs of 2010, i.e. recognizing CC: in this case income falls of 0.7% when farmers are simulated to use their soil mistakenly based of the 2000 pdfs. Given the short period of CC, the differences represent an appreciable error that farmers may be already committing. Properly specifying with the CC at local level can help building farmers’ awareness on it, and to properly manage their resources, recovering profitability.
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Jennings, S., Koehler, A. - K., Sait, S., & Challinor, A. (2016). The abiotic and biotic impacts of climate change on potato agriculture.. Berlin (Germany).
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