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Author |
Sakschewski, B.; von Bloh, W.; Huber, V.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A. |
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Title  |
Feeding 10 billion people under climate change: How large is the production gap of current agricultural systems |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Ecological Modelling |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Model. |
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Volume |
288 |
Issue |
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Pages |
103-111 |
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Keywords |
Population growth; Food production; Dynamic global vegetation model; Climate change; LPJmL; stomatal conductance; population-growth; food-production; co2; enrichment; model; photosynthesis; scenarios; leaves; plants; yield |
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Abstract |
The human population is projected to reach more than 10 billion in the year 2100. Together with changing consumption pattern, population growth will lead to increasing food demand. The question arises whether or not the Earth is capable of fulfilling this demand. In this study, we approach this question by estimating the carrying capacity of current agricultural systems (K-C), which does not measure the maximum number of people the Earth is likely to feed in the future, but rather allows for an indirect assessment of the increases in agricultural productivity required to meet demands. We project agricultural food production under progressing climate change using the state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL, and input data of 3 climate models. For 1990 to 2100 the worldwide annual caloric yield of the most important 11 crop types is simulated. Model runs with and without elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are performed in order to investigate CO2 fertilization effects. Country-specific per-capita caloric demands fixed at current levels and changing demands based on future GDP projections are considered to assess the role of future dietary shifts. Our results indicate that current population projections may considerably exceed the maximum number of people that can be fed globally if climate change is not accompanied by significant changes in land use, agricultural efficiencies and/or consumption pathways. We estimate the gap between projected population size and K-C to reach 2 to 6.8 billion people by 2100. We also present possible caloric self-supply changes between 2000 and 2100 for all countries included in this study. The results show that predominantly developing countries in tropical and subtropical regions will experience vast decreases of self-supply. Therefore, this study is important for planning future large-scale agricultural management, as well as the critical assessment of population projections, which should take food-mediated climate change feedbacks into account |
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2016-10-31 |
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English |
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ISSN |
0304-3800 |
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CropM |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4806 |
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Author |
Lizaso, J.I.; Ruiz-Rarnos, M.; Rodriguez, L.; Gabaldon-Leal, C.; Oliveira, J.A.; Lorite, I.J.; Sanchez, D.; Garcia, E.; Rodriguez, A. |
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Title |
Impact of high temperatures in maize: Phenology and yield components |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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Volume |
216 |
Issue |
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Pages |
129-140 |
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Keywords |
Heat stress; Maize; Kernel number; Anthesis, Beta function; Vapor-Pressure Deficit; Heat-Stress; Transpiration Response; Pollen; Viability; Leaf Appearance; Climate-Change; Kernel Number; Grain-Yield; Growth; Plants |
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Abstract |
Heat stress is a main threat to current and future global maize production. Adaptation of maize to future warmer conditions requires improving our understanding of crop responses to elevated temperatures. For this purpose, the same short-season (FAO 300) maize hybrid PR37N01 was grown over three years of field experiments on three contrasting Spanish locations in terms of temperature regime. The information complemented three years of greenhouse experiments with the same hybrid, applying heat treatments at various critical moments of the crop cycle. Crop phenology, growth, grain yield, and yield components were monitored. An optimized beta function improved the calculation of thermal time compared to the linear-cutoff estimator with base and optimum temperatures of 8 and 34 degrees C, respectively. Our results showed that warmer temperatures accelerate development rate resulting in shorter vegetative and reproductive phases (ca. 30 days for the whole cycle). Heat stress did not cause silking delay in relation to anthesis (extended anthesis-silking interval), at least in the range of temperatures (maximum temperature up to 42.9 degrees C in the field and up to 52.5 degrees C in the greenhouse) considered in this study. Our results indicated that maize grain yield is reduced under heat stress mainly via pollen viability that in turn determines kernel number, although a smaller but significant effect of the female component has been also detected. |
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2018-02-19 |
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English |
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0378-4290 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5190 |
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Author |
Dáder, B.; Gwynn-Jones, D.; Moreno, A.; Winters, A.; Fereres, A. |
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Title |
Impact of UV-A radiation on the performance of aphids and whiteflies and on the leaf chemistry of their host plants |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology B: Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Photochem. Photobiol. B |
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Volume |
138 |
Issue |
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Pages |
307-316 |
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Keywords |
Amino Acids/analysis; Animals; Aphids/*radiation effects; Capsicum/metabolism/parasitology/radiation effects; Carbohydrates/analysis; Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid; Female; Fertility/radiation effects; Hemiptera/*radiation effects; Mass Spectrometry; Phenols/analysis/chemistry; Plant Leaves/metabolism/parasitology/radiation effects; Plants/parasitology/*radiation effects; Proteins/analysis; Solanum melongena/metabolism/parasitology/radiation effects; Time Factors; *Ultraviolet Rays; Eggplant; Insect pests; Pepper; Plant-insect interactions; UV-blocking covers |
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Abstract |
Ultraviolet (UV) radiation directly regulates a multitude of herbivore life processes, in addition to indirectly affecting insect success via changes in plant chemistry and morphogenesis. Here we looked at plant and insect (aphid and whitefly) exposure to supplemental UV-A radiation in the glasshouse environment and investigated effects on insect population growth. Glasshouse grown peppers and eggplants were grown from seed inside cages covered by novel plastic filters, one transparent and the other opaque to UV-A radiation. At a 10-true leaf stage for peppers (53 days) and 4-true leaf stage for eggplants (34 days), plants were harvested for chemical analysis and infested by aphids and whiteflies, respectively. Clip-cages were used to introduce and monitor the insect fitness and populations of the pests studied. Insect pre-reproductive period, fecundity, fertility and intrinsic rate of natural increase were assessed. Crop growth was monitored weekly for 7 and 12 weeks throughout the crop cycle of peppers and eggplants, respectively. At the end of the insect fitness experiment, plants were harvested (68 days and 18-true leaf stage for peppers, and 104 days and 12-true leaf stage for eggplants) and leaves analysed for secondary metabolites, soluble carbohydrates, amino acids, total proteins and photosynthetic pigments. Our results demonstrate for the first time, that UV-A modulates plant chemistry with implications for insect pests. Both plant species responded directly to UV-A by producing shorter stems but this effect was only significant in pepper whilst UV-A did not affect the leaf area of either species. Importantly, in pepper, the UV-A treated plants contained higher contents of secondary metabolites, leaf soluble carbohydrates, free amino acids and total content of protein. Such changes in tissue chemistry may have indirectly promoted aphid performance. For eggplants, chlorophylls a and b, and carotenoid levels decreased with supplemental UV-A over the entire crop cycle but UV-A exposure did not affect leaf secondary metabolites. However, exposure to supplemental UV-A had a detrimental effect on whitefly development, fecundity and fertility presumably not mediated by plant cues as compounds implied in pest nutrition – proteins and sugars – were unaltered. |
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ISSN |
1011-1344 |
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CropM |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4517 |
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Author |
Dockter, C.; Hansson, M. |
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Title |
Improving barley culm robustness for secured crop yield in a changing climate |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
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Volume |
66 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
3499-3509 |
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Keywords |
Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural/*anatomy & histology/genetics/*growth & development; Edible Grain/anatomy & histology/genetics/growth & development; Genes, Plant; Hordeum/*anatomy & histology/genetics/*growth & development; Phenotype; Barley (Hordeum vulgare); Green Revolution; brassinosteroid; gibberellin; lodging; plant architecture; short culm |
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Abstract |
The Green Revolution combined advancements in breeding and agricultural practice, and provided food security to millions of people. Daily food supply is still a major issue in many parts of the world and is further challenged by future climate change. Fortunately, life science research is currently making huge progress, and the development of future crop plants will be explored. Today, plant breeding typically follows one gene per trait. However, new scientific achievements have revealed that many of these traits depend on different genes and complex interactions of proteins reacting to various external stimuli. These findings open up new possibilities for breeding where variations in several genes can be combined to enhance productivity and quality. In this review we present an overview of genes determining plant architecture in barley, with a special focus on culm length. Many genes are currently known only through their mutant phenotypes, but emerging genomic sequence information will accelerate their identification. More than 1000 different short-culm barley mutants have been isolated and classified in different phenotypic groups according to culm length and additional pleiotropic characters. Some mutants have been connected to deficiencies in biosynthesis and reception of brassinosteroids and gibberellic acids. Still other mutants are unlikely to be connected to these hormones. The genes and corresponding mutations are of potential interest for development of stiff-straw crop plants tolerant to lodging, which occurs in extreme weather conditions with strong winds and heavy precipitation. |
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0022-0957 1460-2431 |
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Review |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4556 |
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Author |
Martre, P.; He, J.; Le Gouis, J.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Title |
In silico system analysis of physiological traits determining grain yield and protein concentration for wheat as influenced by climate and crop management |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
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Volume |
66 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
3581-3598 |
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Keywords |
Climate; *Computer Simulation; Crops, Agricultural/*growth & development/physiology; Edible Grain/*growth & development; Models, Biological; Nitrogen/metabolism; Plant Proteins/*metabolism; Plant Transpiration; Probability; *Quantitative Trait, Heritable; Soil/chemistry; Triticum/growth & development/metabolism/*physiology; Water/chemistry; Crop growth model; genetic adaptation; grain protein concentration; grain yield; interannual variability; sensitivity analysis; wheat (Triticum aestivum L.); yield stability |
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Genetic improvement of grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC) is impeded by large genotype×environment×management interactions and by compensatory effects between traits. Here global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of the process-based wheat model SiriusQuality2 were conducted with the aim of identifying candidate traits to increase GY and GPC. Three contrasted European sites were selected and simulations were performed using long-term weather data and two nitrogen (N) treatments in order to quantify the effect of parameter uncertainty on GY and GPC under variable environments. The overall influence of all 75 plant parameters of SiriusQuality2 was first analysed using the Morris method. Forty-one influential parameters were identified and their individual (first-order) and total effects on the model outputs were investigated using the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test. The overall effect of the parameters was dominated by their interactions with other parameters. Under high N supply, a few influential parameters with respect to GY were identified (e.g. radiation use efficiency, potential duration of grain filling, and phyllochron). However, under low N, >10 parameters showed similar effects on GY and GPC. All parameters had opposite effects on GY and GPC, but leaf and stem N storage capacity appeared as good candidate traits to change the intercept of the negative relationship between GY and GPC. This study provides a system analysis of traits determining GY and GPC under variable environments and delivers valuable information to prioritize model development and experimental work. |
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1460-2431 (Electronic) 0022-0957 (Linking) |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4567 |
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