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Biewald, A.; Sinabell, F.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Zimmermann, A.; Lehtonen, H. |
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Global Representative Agricultural Pathways for Europe |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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10 |
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T1.2-XC16.2 |
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Agricultural elements have been covered in the scenario process on shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) incompletely and pathways have not been specified for the future development of the European Union. We will therefore devise a general framework on European Representative Agricultural Pathways (EU-RAPs), where we cover different aspects of agricultural development, as for example European and domestic agricultural and environmental policies, or different livestock and crop management systems, and describe future developments of the confederation of the countries of the European Union. For the agricultural elements we distinguish between elements that can be derived from the definitions in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, as for example irrigation efficiencies which are linked to technological development, and elements that have to be newly devised such as the development of the Common Agricultural Policy. For the future of the European Union we develop five different worlds which correspond to the SSPs. Finally both frameworks are combined. |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5034 |
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Siebert, S.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Ewert, F.; Siebert, S.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Heat stress is overestimated in climate impact studies for irrigated agriculture |
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2017 |
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Environmental Research Letters |
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Environ. Res. Lett. |
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12 |
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5 |
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054023 |
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heat stress; climate change impact assessment; irrigation; canopy temperature; CANOPY TEMPERATURE; WINTER-WHEAT; WATER-STRESS; CROP YIELDS; GROWTH; MAIZE; DROUGHT; UNCERTAINTY; ENVIRONMENT; PHENOLOGY |
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Climate change will increase the number and severity of heat waves, and is expected to negatively affect crop yields. Here we show for wheat and maize across Europe that heat stress is considerably reduced by irrigation due to surface cooling for both current and projected future climate. We demonstrate that crop heat stress impact assessments should be based on canopy temperature because simulations with air temperatures measured at standard weather stations cannot reproduce differences in crop heat stress between irrigated and rainfed conditions. Crop heat stress was overestimated on irrigated land when air temperature was used with errors becoming larger with projected climate change. Corresponding errors in mean crop yield calculated across Europe for baseline climate 1984-2013 of 0.2 Mg yr(-1) (2%) and 0.6 Mg yr(-1) (5%) for irrigated winter wheat and irrigated grain maize, respectively, would increase to up to 1.5 Mg yr (1) (16%) for irrigated winter wheat and 4.1 Mg yr (1) (39%) for irrigated grain maize, depending on the climate change projection/GCM combination considered. We conclude that climate change impact assessments for crop heat stress need to account explicitly for the impact of irrigation. |
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2017-06-22 |
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1748-9326 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5035 |
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Schmid, E. |
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Integrated land use modelling — a course for doctoral students |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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10 |
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T4.1-4.2-XC4.3-4.4-D |
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TradeM |
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The course on “Integrated land use modelling” took place at BOKU Vienna between 24. – 28. April 2017. It was a five-days course capturing many aspects in quantitative integrated land use modelling using GAMS (see course outline). 10 students have participated the course coming from several countries. Students finishing the course have received 3 ECTS points. The course was offered by BOKU and the Doctoral Certificate Program in Agricultural Economics (https://www.agraroekonomik.de/index.html ). |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5036 |
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Janssen, S. |
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Title |
Open data journal as a publishing and data sharing mechanism |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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10 |
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C2.3-D |
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This deliverable lays out the work as done as part of MACSUR CropM on data publishing, with the focus on improving data sharing and discovery and have shared data curation for future use. As part of the first phase MACSUR, The Open Data Journal for Agricultural Research (www.odjar.org) was started and documented in Deliverable C2.2 as part of Crop M. Odjar.org mainly focuses on long term data archival and citation of data sets, as input and outputs to the modelling work, as part of MACSUR, lead by Wageningen UR This deliverable is a short update on the process of creating such a data journal by demonstrating a set of articles published through the journal, some of which are based on MACSUR results, as well as related networks. The deliverable does not further explain what the journal is, as this is part of the previous deliverable. |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5169 |
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Zhang, S.; Tao, F.; Zhang, Z. |
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Uncertainty from model structure is larger than that from model parameters in simulating rice phenology in China |
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2017 |
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European Journal of Agronomy |
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Europ. J. Agron. |
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87 |
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30-39 |
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Crop model, Extreme weather, Impacts, Rice development rate, Uncertainty; Climate-Change; Growth Duration; Crop Model; Ceres-Rice; Wheat; Temperature; Impact; Yield; Optimization; Performance |
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Rice models have been widely used in simulating and predicting rice phenology in contrasting climate zones, however the uncertainties from model structure (different equations or models) and/or model parameters were rarely investigated. Here, five rice phenological models/modules (Le., CERES-Rice, ORYZA2000, RCM, Beta Model and SIMRIW) were applied to simulate rice phenology at 23 experimental stations from 1992 to 2009 in two major rice cultivation regions of China: the northeastern China and the southwestern China. To investigate the uncertainties from model biophysical parameters, each model was run with randomly perturbed 50 sets of parameters. The results showed that the median of ensemble simulations were better than the simulation by most models. Models couldn’t simulate well in some specific years despite of parameters optimization, suggesting model structure limit model performance in some cases. The models adopting accumulative thermal time function (e.g., CERES-Rice and ORYZA2000) had better performance in the southwestern China, in contrast, those adopting exponential function (e.g., Beta model and RCM model) had better performance in the northeastern China. In northeastern China, the contribution of model structure and model parameters to model total variance was, respectively, about 55.90% and 44.10% in simulating heading date, and about 75.43% and 24.57% in simulating maturity date. In the southwestern China, the contribution of model structure and model parameters to model total variance was, respectively, about 79.97% and 27.03% in simulating heading date, about 92.15% and 7.85% in simulating maturity date. Uncertainty from model structure was the most relevant source. The results highlight that the temperature response functions of rice development rate under extreme climate conditions should be improved based on environment-controlled experimental data. |
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2017-08-07 |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5170 |
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