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Rötter, R.P.; Palosuo, T.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Angulo, C.; Bindi, M.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; Hlavinka, P.; Moriondo, M.; Olesen, J.E.; Takáč, J.; Trnka, M. |
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Title |
Simulation of spring barley yield in different climatic zones of Northern and Central Europe: A comparison of nine crop models |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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Volume |
133 |
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23-36 |
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Keywords |
Climate; Crop growth simulation; Model comparison; Spring barley; Yield variability; Uncertainty; change impacts; nitrogen dynamics; high-temperature; soil-moisture; elevated co2; ceres-wheat; data set; growth; drought; sensitivity |
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► We compared nine crop simulation models for spring barley at seven sites in Europe. ► Applying crop models with restricted calibration leads to high uncertainties. ► Multi-crop model mean yield estimates were in good agreement with observations. ► The degree of uncertainty for simulated grain yield of barley was similar to winter wheat. ► We need more suitable data enabling us to verify different processes in the models. In this study, the performance of nine widely used and accessible crop growth simulation models (APES-ACE, CROPSYST, DAISY, DSSAT-CERES, FASSET, HERMES, MONICA, STICS and WOFOST) was compared during 44 growing seasons of spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L) at seven sites in Northern and Central Europe. The aims of this model comparison were to examine how different process-based crop models perform at multiple sites across Europe when applied with minimal information for model calibration of spring barley at field scale, whether individual models perform better than the multi-model mean, and what the uncertainty ranges are in simulated grain yields. The reasons for differences among the models and how results for barley compare to winter wheat are discussed. Regarding yield estimation, best performing based on the root mean square error (RMSE) were models HERMES, MONICA and WOFOST with lowest values of 1124, 1282 and 1325 (kg ha(-1)), respectively. Applying the index of agreement (IA), models WOFOST, DAISY and HERMES scored best having highest values (0.632, 0.631 and 0.585, respectively). Most models systematically underestimated yields, whereby CROPSYST showed the highest deviation as indicated by the mean bias error (MBE) (-1159 kg ha(-1)). While the wide range of simulated yields across all sites and years shows the high uncertainties in model estimates with only restricted calibration, mean predictions from the nine models agreed well with observations. Results of this paper also show that models that were more accurate in predicting phenology were not necessarily the ones better estimating grain yields. Total above-ground biomass estimates often did not follow the patterns of grain yield estimates and, thus, harvest indices were also different. Estimates of soil moisture dynamics varied greatly. In comparison, even though the growing cycle for winter wheat is several months longer than for spring barley, using RMSE and IA as indicators, models performed slightly, but not significantly, better in predicting wheat yields. Errors in reproducing crop phenology were similar, which in conjunction with the shorter growth cycle of barley has higher effects on accuracy in yield prediction. |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4592 |
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Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.; Trnka, M.; Fronzek, S.; Carter, T.R.; Kahiluoto, H. |
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Title |
Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
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Ecology and Evolution |
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Ecol. Evol. |
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3 |
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12 |
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4197-4214 |
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Adaptation; agroclimatic indicator; barley; crop simulation model; cultivar response diversity |
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THIS PAPER AIMS: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections. |
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2045-7758 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4576 |
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Jabloun, M.; Schelde, K.; Tao, F.; Olesen, J.E. |
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Effect of temperature and precipitation on nitrate leaching from organic cereal cropping systems in Denmark |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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European Journal of Agronomy |
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European Journal of Agronomy |
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62 |
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55-64 |
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nitrogen; leaching; organic farming; wheat; barley; climate-change; catch crops; nitrogen mineralization; winter-wheat; arable crop; european agriculture; farming systems; spring barley; cover crops; soil |
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The effect of variation in seasonal temperature and precipitation on soil water nitrate (NO3-N) concentration and leaching from winter and spring cereals cropping systems was investigated over three consecutive four-year crop rotation cycles from 1997 to 2008 in an organic farming crop rotation experiment in Denmark. Three experimental sites, varying in climate and soil type from coarse sand to sandy loam, were investigated. The experiment included experimental treatments with different rotations, manure rate and cover crop, and soil nitrate concentrations was monitored using suction cups. The effects of climate, soil and management were examined in a linear mixed model, and only parameters with significant effect (P < 0.05) were included in the final model. The model explained 61% and 47% of the variation in the square root transform of flow-weighted annual NO3-N concentration for winter and spring cereals, respectively, and 68% and 77% of the variation in the square root transform of annual NO3-N leaching for winter and spring cereals, respectively. Nitrate concentration and leaching were shown to be site specific and driven by climatic factors and crop management. There were significant effects on annual N concentration and NO3-N leaching of location, rotation, previous crop and crop cover during autumn and winter. The relative effects of temperature and precipitation differed between seasons and cropping systems. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the predicted N concentration and leaching increased with increases in temperature and precipitation. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4562 |
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Frederiks, T.M.; Christopher, J.T.; Sutherland, M.W.; Borrell, A.K. |
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Post-head-emergence frost in wheat and barley: defining the problem, assessing the damage, and identifying resistance |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
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66 |
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12 |
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3487-3498 |
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Adaptation, Physiological; Environment; *Freezing; Hordeum/*physiology; Stress, Physiological; Triticum/*physiology; Barley; frost; reproductive frost; spring radiant frost; wheat |
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Radiant frost is a significant production constraint to wheat (Triticum aestivum) and barley (Hordeum vulgare), particularly in regions where spring-habit cereals are grown through winter, maturing in spring. However, damage to winter-habit cereals in reproductive stages is also reported. Crops are particularly susceptible to frost once awns or spikes emerge from the protection of the flag leaf sheath. Post-head-emergence frost (PHEF) is a problem distinct from other cold-mediated production constraints. To date, useful increased PHEF resistance in cereals has not been identified. Given the renewed interest in reproductive frost damage in cereals, it is timely to review the problem. Here we update the extent and impacts of PHEF and document current management options to combat this challenge. We clarify terminology useful for discussing PHEF in relation to chilling and other freezing stresses. We discuss problems characterizing radiant frost, the environmental conditions leading to PHEF damage, and the effects of frost at different growth stages. PHEF resistant cultivars would be highly desirable, to both reduce the incidence of direct frost damage and to allow the timing of crop maturity to be managed to maximize yield potential. A framework of potential adaptation mechanisms is outlined. Clarification of these critical issues will sharpen research focus, improving opportunities to identify genetic sources for improved PHEF resistance. |
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0022-0957 1460-2431 |
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Review |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4558 |
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Dockter, C.; Hansson, M. |
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Improving barley culm robustness for secured crop yield in a changing climate |
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2015 |
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Journal of Experimental Botany |
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J. Experim. Bot. |
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66 |
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12 |
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3499-3509 |
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Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural/*anatomy & histology/genetics/*growth & development; Edible Grain/anatomy & histology/genetics/growth & development; Genes, Plant; Hordeum/*anatomy & histology/genetics/*growth & development; Phenotype; Barley (Hordeum vulgare); Green Revolution; brassinosteroid; gibberellin; lodging; plant architecture; short culm |
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The Green Revolution combined advancements in breeding and agricultural practice, and provided food security to millions of people. Daily food supply is still a major issue in many parts of the world and is further challenged by future climate change. Fortunately, life science research is currently making huge progress, and the development of future crop plants will be explored. Today, plant breeding typically follows one gene per trait. However, new scientific achievements have revealed that many of these traits depend on different genes and complex interactions of proteins reacting to various external stimuli. These findings open up new possibilities for breeding where variations in several genes can be combined to enhance productivity and quality. In this review we present an overview of genes determining plant architecture in barley, with a special focus on culm length. Many genes are currently known only through their mutant phenotypes, but emerging genomic sequence information will accelerate their identification. More than 1000 different short-culm barley mutants have been isolated and classified in different phenotypic groups according to culm length and additional pleiotropic characters. Some mutants have been connected to deficiencies in biosynthesis and reception of brassinosteroids and gibberellic acids. Still other mutants are unlikely to be connected to these hormones. The genes and corresponding mutations are of potential interest for development of stiff-straw crop plants tolerant to lodging, which occurs in extreme weather conditions with strong winds and heavy precipitation. |
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0022-0957 1460-2431 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4556 |
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