Abstract: The primary objective of this study was to assess the status and priorities for future development in modelling of the impacts of animal health on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It also aimed to facilitate communication between experimental researchers and modellers by defining a list of parameters that are needed to model livestock health and disease, and the impact of health conditions on GHG emissions. The summary presented here provides a brief overview of ongoing work, which the L2.1/L2.2 partners, with support from the Global Research Alliance Animal Health Network (GRA AHN), is currently developing into a paper for publication in a peer reviewed journal.

Abstract: MACSUR provides an opportunity to connect disparate research groups and disciplines in livestock and grassland modelling.  Within the livestock theme (LiveM) of MACSUR, grassland modelling capabilities have been significantly improved through joint modelling exercises, and grassland modellers have exploited their methodological overlaps with CropM to make important contributions to regional pilot studies.  Animal health researchers have been contributing to the southern regional pilot, and modelling resources have been identified for livestock systems at the animal and farm-scales.  Here, the priorities for the next steps for livestock and grassland modelling are discussed, and for the role of MACSUR in addressing the challenges facing the sector.  While crop and grassland modelling deals with primary production, livestock modelling examines the complexity of secondary production. The unique position of livestock modelling presents challenges and opportunities.  The diversity of livestock models (in scale and approach) makes model inter-comparisons and collaborative work challenging, while the range of variables involved in livestock systems provide many opportunities for increasing systemic efficiency and robustness to the impacts of climate change.  Closer integration of experimental research and modelling teams also has the potential to increase the capability of livestock and grassland models to predict the impact of European adaptation strategies on livestock farming systems, and on the contribution of these systems to global food security.

Abstract: It is predicted that world population will reach nine billion by 2050 (Godfray et al., 2010) with the biggest increases occurring in the developing world (Guyomard et al., 2013, Thornton, 2010).  This growth is expected to dramatically increase the demand for meat and animal products (Tilman et al., 2002) with a requirement by 2050 for 73 % more meat and 58 % more milk than produced in 2010 (FAO, 2011).  In order to meet this growing demand, the supply of livestock products must rise to an extent comparable with that of the ‘Green Revolution’ (Tilman et al., 2002).  This must occur in the context of serious global challenges related to climate change, resource availability, inequality, and biodiversity loss.  At present many European livestock production systems are heavily reliant on a small number of feed products to provide protein, with imported soya accounting for 55 % of the 2.6 million tonnes of plant-derived protein fed to animals in the UK.  This reliance on a small number of imported products leaves supply vulnerable to economic and climatic change.  There is increased research into alternatives to South American soybean in the European feed supply chain, including improving the nutritional and agronomic characteristics of such alternatives, and exploring the use of new sources of potential feed material. This presents an opportunity for collaboration between experimental researchers and modellers to investigate the potential impacts of alternative feeds on livestock system productivity, robustness to climate change and levels of GHG emissions.