| Records |
| Author |
Wallach, D.; Thorburn, P.; Asseng, S.; Challinor, A.J.; Ewert, F.; Jones, J.W.; Rötter, R.; Ruane, A. |
| Title |
Overview paper on comprehensive framework for assessment of error and uncertainty in crop model predictions |
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Report |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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| Volume |
8 |
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Pages |
C4.1-D |
| Keywords |
MACSUR_ACK; CropM |
| Abstract |
Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. Several ways of quantifying prediction uncertainty have been explored in the literature, but there have been no studies of how the different approaches are related to one another, and how they are related to some overall measure of prediction uncertainty. Here we show that all the different approaches can be related to two different viewpoints about the model; either the model is treated as a fixed predictor with some average error, or the model can be treated as a random variable with uncertainty in one or more of model structure, model inputs and model parameters. We discuss the differences, and show how mean squared error of prediction can be estimated in both cases. The results can be used to put uncertainty estimates into a more general framework and to relate different uncertainty estimates to one another and to overall prediction uncertainty. This should lead to a better understanding of crop model prediction uncertainty and the underlying causes of that uncertainty. This study was published as (Wallach et al. 2016) |
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2954 |
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Reidsma, P.; Bakker, M.M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Alam, S.J.; Paas, W.; Kros, J.; W. de Vries, W. |
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Impacts of climate and socio-economic change at farm and landscape level in the Netherlands: climate smart agriculture |
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2015 |
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CropM |
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Climate-smart agriculture 2015. Global Science Conference. Montpellier, France, 2015-03-15 to 2015-03-18 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2745 |
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Rocca, A.; Bellocchi, G.; Giussani, A.; Sanna, M.; Perego, A.; Fumagalli, M.; Carozzi, M.; Chiodini, M.; Bregaglio, S.; Confalonieri, R.; Acutis, M. |
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Correlation between evaluation model indicators |
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2013 |
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CropM |
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XVI National congress of Agrometeorology. Firenze, Italy, 2013-06-04 to 2013-06-06 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2748 |
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Rodríguez-Carretero, T.; Lorite, J.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Dosio, A.; Gómez, J.A. |
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Impact of climate change on water balance components in Mediterranean rainfed olive orchards under tillage or cover crop soil management |
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2013 |
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European GeoSciences Union (EGU), General Assembly 2013, 2013-04-07 to 2013-04-12 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2749 |
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Rötter, R. |
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Improving capacity of current crop models for simulating impacts of climatic extremes |
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2013 |
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CropM |
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ISI-MIP side event at at the Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects, Potsdam, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-30 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2755 |
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