Dono, G., Cortignani, R., Doro, L., & Roggero, P. P. (2014). The adaptation of farm and awareness of ongoing climate change (CC). FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Farm planning is based on awareness of climate variability, here assumed to depend on experience gained over the years, and to generate expectations on climatic variables. Expectations are based on probability distributions (pdfs) estimated on climate data and used to generate managing choices by means of Discrete Stochastic Programming. The model simulates the income losses in case farmers do not recognize the ongoing CC, and continue to plan assuming climate stability. In particular, the use of resources in 2010 is simulated based on the pdfs of the early 2000s, despite CC has changed the probabilities of the various states of nature. The model, calibrated with Positive Mathematical Programming, generates a 0.9% income increase when is allowed to adapt to 2010 climate pdfs. The model is also calibrated according to pdfs of 2010, i.e. recognizing CC: in this case income falls of 0.7% when farmers are simulated to use their soil mistakenly based of the 2000 pdfs. Given the short period of CC, the differences represent an appreciable error that farmers may be already committing. Properly specifying with the CC at local level can help building farmers’ awareness on it, and to properly manage their resources, recovering profitability.
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Biewald, A. (2014). The development of cereals and oilseed production until 2050 under different socioeconomic conditions in Finland. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: We will use Finland as an example of a small, developed country with difficult climatic conditions to show how changes in global food consumption patterns and global population growth will influence local production. In order to do so we use two different models. First, an agricultural sector model for Finland, and second, a regionally adapted version of a global, spatially explicit agroeconomic land use model. We use both models to investigate how Finnish cereals and oilseed production develops under different socioeconomic conditions, as defined in the Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We find that without a major improvement of oilseed yields, oilseed production will be disrupted by 2050 and even with a major increase in oilseeds yields only in the SSP2 scenario production of oilseeds can be sustained. Cereal production on the other hand does not change in the simulations with the global model, but does almost decrease by half in the simulations with the national model. This shows that even with an enormous global population growth and reduced international trade, Finland will not become a major agricultural producer.
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Kauer, K., Tein, B., & Loit, E. (2014). The long-term trends in soil carbon stock and crop productivity depending on management in Estonia. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: The dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) content and crop productivity were studied on three still continuing field experiments situated at the experimental station of the Estonian University of Life Sciences in Tartu, Estonia. The first trial was established in 1964. The effect of mineral fertilizers and farmyard manure applied to barley and sward with different species composition on soil organic carbon content was studied. The second trial with 3-crop rotation (potato – spring wheat – spring barley) was established in 1989. Experimental factors were organic (without amendment, solid cattle manure and alternative organic fertilisers) and mineral fertilisers (0, 40, 80, 120 and 160 kg N ha-1). The third field experiment with 5-crop rotation experiment was established in 2008. Five different crops were following each other – barley undersown with red clover, red clover, winter wheat, pea and potato. Experimental factors were organic (catch crops as green manures, catch crops as green manures combined with composted cattle manure) and conventional farming systems. The conventional farming systems differed in the amounts of mineral fertilizers used: 0, 50, 100 and 150 kg N ha-1. The first goal of this research was to quantify plant C inputs to the soil in Estonian arable lands and the net primary production using crop-specific allometric relationships. Secondly, the impact of the different management scenarios on the changes in soil C stock was evaluated using plant C input data. The preliminary results of these data analysis will be presented.
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Angelova, D. (2014). The state-contingent approach to production and choice under uncertainty: usefulness as a basis for economic modeling. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: The state-contingent approach developed by Chambers and Quiggin (2000) constitutes an attractive blend of a theory of production analysis under uncertainty and a theory of decision-making under uncertainty. One of the goals of this contribution is to introduce the reader to the approach by outlining its contents while comparing and contrasting it to related theories. With respect to production analysis: an emphasis is made on the ability of the approach to deliver well defined cost functions corresponding to stochastic production technologies. With respect to decision-making under uncertainty: the comparison with other theories consistent with a rational agent emphasizes the production theoretical basis of the state-contingent approach. It is the author’s belief that appropriately categorizing the state-contingent approach serves the primary goal of this work: to explore its usefulness as a basis for economic modeling. Some challenges regarding an empirical implementation are discussed: challenges in estimating the parameters of a state-contingent technology representation in general, as well as challenges arising from the fact that the approach is constructed around the argument pioneered by Leonard J Savage: that probabilities underlying economic decision-making are inherently subjective.(The financial support of ScienceCampus Halle is gratefully acknowledged.)
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Brouwer, F., & Sinabell, F. (2014). TradeM planning session of pilot studies. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: TradeM will organise a session to plan for the three regional pilot studies. Focus will be on the expected outcomes until early 2015 (e.g. progress in farm modelling, and other scientific advancements – uncertainty, model integration). In addition to the planning of the regional pilot studies for the remaining year in MACSUR, we will also elaborate proposals for the years 2015-2017. Moreover, the session will enable research groups to present and discuss their plans for cross-theme investigations.
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