| Records |
| Author |
Maiorano, A.; Martre, P.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Müller, C.; Rötter, R.P.; Ruane, A.C.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Wang, E.; Alderman, P.D.; Kassie, B.T.; Biernath, C.; Basso, B.; Cammarano, D.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Dumont, B.; Rezaei, E.E.; Gayler, S.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kimball, B.A.; Koehler, A.-K.; Liu, B.; O’Leary, G.J.; Olesen, J.E.; Ottman, M.J.; Priesack, E.; Reynolds, M.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Thorburn, P.J.; Waha, K.; Wall, G.W.; White, J.W.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y. |
| Title |
Crop model improvement reduces the uncertainty of the response to temperature of multi-model ensembles |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
| Volume |
202 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
5-20 |
| Keywords |
Impact uncertainty; High temperature; Model improvement; Multi-model ensemble; Wheat crop model |
| Abstract |
To improve climate change impact estimates and to quantify their uncertainty, multi-model ensembles (MMEs) have been suggested. Model improvements can improve the accuracy of simulations and reduce the uncertainty of climate change impact assessments. Furthermore, they can reduce the number of models needed in a MME. Herein, 15 wheat growth models of a larger MME were improved through re-parameterization and/or incorporating or modifying heat stress effects on phenology, leaf growth and senescence, biomass growth, and grain number and size using detailed field experimental data from the USDA Hot Serial Cereal experiment (calibration data set). Simulation results from before and after model improvement were then evaluated with independent field experiments from a CIMMYT world-wide field trial network (evaluation data set). Model improvements decreased the variation (10th to 90th model ensemble percentile range) of grain yields simulated by the MME on average by 39% in the calibration data set and by 26% in the independent evaluation data set for crops grown in mean seasonal temperatures >24 °C. MME mean squared error in simulating grain yield decreased by 37%. A reduction in MME uncertainty range by 27% increased MME prediction skills by 47%. Results suggest that the mean level of variation observed in field experiments and used as a benchmark can be reached with half the number of models in the MME. Improving crop models is therefore important to increase the certainty of model-based impact assessments and allow more practical, i.e. smaller MMEs to be used effectively. |
| Address |
2016-09-13 |
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Summary Language |
Newsletter July 2016 |
Original Title |
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| Series Editor |
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Series Issue |
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| ISSN |
0378-4290 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Article |
| Area |
CropM |
Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropMwp;wos; ft=macsur; wsnot_yet; |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4776 |
| Permanent link to this record |
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| Author |
Liu, X.; Lehtonen, H.; Purola, T.; Pavlova, Y.; Rötter, R.P., T. |
| Title |
Dynamic economic modelling of crop rotation with adaptation practices |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Keywords |
TradeM |
| Abstract |
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Conference |
14th EAAE Congress, Ljubljana (Slovenia), 2014-08-26 to 2014-08-29 |
| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2604 |
| Permanent link to this record |
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| Author |
Lehtonen, H.; Rötter, R.; T., P. |
| Title |
Farm level analysis as a key to integrated regional case studies in Finland |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Keywords |
TradeM |
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MACSUR TradeM workshop: Exploring new ideas for trade and agriculture model integration for assessing the impacts of climate change on food security, The Natural Resource and Environmental Research Center (NRERC), University of Haifa, Israel, 2013-03-03 t |
| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2596 |
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| Author |
Lazar, C. |
| Title |
Modelling of crop growth and development as an instrument for analysis of orientations in agricultural research in the context of climate changes (context and opinions) In Romanian: Modelarea cresterii si dezvoltarii plantelor de cultura ca instrument de analiza a directiilor de cercetare agricola în contextul schimbarilor climatic) |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Keywords |
CropM |
| Abstract |
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Workshop on climate change organized by Romanian Academy of Sciences (Bucharest, Romania), 2012-11-23 to 2012-11-23 |
| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2587 |
| Permanent link to this record |
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| Author |
Schönhart, M.; Schauppenlehner, T.; Kuttner, M.; Kirchner, M.; Schmid, E. |
| Title |
Climate change impacts on farm production, landscape appearance, and the environment: Policy scenario results from an integrated field-farm-landscape model in Austria |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Systems |
| Volume |
145 |
Issue |
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Pages |
39-50 |
| Keywords |
Integrated land use modeling; Climate change impacts; Mitigation; Adaptation; Field-farm-landscape; Environment; agricultural landscapes; land-use; netherlands; adaptation; indicators; management; responses |
| Abstract |
Climate change is among the major drivers of agricultural land use change and demands autonomous farm adaptation as well as public mitigation and adaptation policies. In this article, we present an integrated land use model (ILM) mainly combining a bio-physical model and a bio-economic farm model at field, farm and landscape levels. The ILM is applied to a cropland dominated landscape in Austria to analyze impacts of climate change and mitigation and adaptation policy scenarios on farm production as well as on the abiotic environment and biotic environment. Changes in aggregated total farm gross margins from three climate change scenarios for 2040 range between + 1% and + 5% without policy intervention” and compared to a reference situation under the current climate. Changes in aggregated gross margins are even higher if adaptation policies are in place. However, increasing productivity from climate change leads to deteriorating environmental conditions such as declining plant species richness and landscape appearance. It has to be balanced by mitigation and adaptation policies taking into account effects from the considerable spatial heterogeneity such as revealed by the ILM. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0308-521x |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Article |
| Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4767 |
| Permanent link to this record |
