Zander, P., Schuler, J., Porwollik, V., & Hecker, J. - M. (2014). Modelling approach and first results on irrigation as climate change adaptation strategy of the project NaLaMa-nT. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: The project NaLaMa-nT examines in the context of climate change sustainable development paths of land use in four different rural districts in Northern Germany. These districts were chosen along a soil-climate gradient from west to east with increasing water deficit for plant growth caused by both: decreasing rain fall and decreasing soil quality. In front of this background different trends and developments of agricultural production can be derived from analysing, modelling and comparing existing production systems and conditions of the different regions. One assumption developed from existing climate projections is that climate change will cause increasing water deficits for plant growth – especially in the eastern part of Germany. An obvious solution is to intensify agricultural production using existing irrigation methods that can reduce the yield risk and thus stabilize income from agriculture by avoiding yield failures and increasing the overall yield level. Therefore we build a modelling approach which allows an economic analysis both on the crop production activity level as well on the farm level. The data base comprises data representing recent production techniques and added optional irrigation techniques. The yields and input level changes are derived from literature studies and expert interviews. The farm structure is represented and modeled based on typical farms chosen from an IACS-data farm typology with different production potentials and patterns. First results will be presented in April.
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Van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A., Evers, A., & De Haan, M. (2014). Modelling emissions of greenhouse gases from dairy farms in the Netherlands using DairyWise. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: The DairyWise model (Schils et al., 2007) is an empirical model that simulates technical, environmental, and financial processes on a dairy farm. The central component is the FeedSupply model that balances the herd requirements, as generated by the DairyHerd model, and the supply of home-grown feeds, as generated by the crop models for grassland and silage maize. The GrassGrowth model predicts the daily rate of DM accumulation of grass, including several feed quality parameters. Depending on (daily) grazing, the amount of grass silage is calculated which also leads to the purchase (or sale) of roughage. The final output is a farm plan describing cattle performance, crop yield, grazing, feeding, and nutrient flows and the consequences on the environment and economy. The capabilities of DairyWise will be illustrated at the MACSUR meeting in Sassari with results of dairy farming in the Netherlands: farm characteristics, economics, NPK balances and greenhouse gas emissions.
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Wilson, A. J., & Gubbins, S. (2014). Modelling interactions between climate and livestock pathogen transmission. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Climate affects the transmission of livestock pathogens via multiple direct and indirect pathways. The impact of climate change on livestock pathogens is therefore complex and difficult to predict. Recent improvements in the availability of climatic data, the accumulation of epidemiological data and the development of Bayesian methodologies allow improved inferences to be made about the responses of pathogens to climate change. We discuss recent studies demonstrating these principles and present a proposal for future work using an extensively validated model for the transmission of bluetongue virus to forecast the potential consequences of predicted environmental changes to the expected impact of the disease and efficacy of current control strategies under a range of incursion scenarios.
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Gøtke, N. (2014). Opening remarks by the chair of the FACCE JPI Governing Board. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
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König, H. J. (2014). Operationalising sustainability impact assessment of land use scenarios in developing countries: A stakeholder-based approach with case studies in China, India, Indonesia, Kenya, and Tunisia. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Growing populations, continued economic development, and limited natural resources are critical factors affecting sustainable development. Ex-ante impact assessment is an emerging field poised at the science-policy interface and is used to assess the potential impacts of policy while also exploring trade-offs between economic, social and environmental sustainability targets. The Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA) was selected for this study because it allows for the integration of various sustainability dimensions, the handling of complexity, and the incorporation of local stakeholder perceptions. FoPIA was adapted to the conditions of developing countries, and its implementation was demonstrated in five selected case studies. Based on the findings from the five case studies, FoPIA was found to be suitable for implementing the impact assessment at case study level while ensuring a high level of transparency. FoPIA supports the identification of causal relationships underlying regional land use problems, facilitates communication among stakeholders and illustrates the effects of alternative decision options with respect to all three dimensions of sustainable development.
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