toggle visibility Search & Display Options

Select All    Deselect All
 |   | 
Details
   print
  Records Links
Author Trnka, M.; Feng, S.; Semenov, M.A.; Olesen, J.E.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Roetter, R.P.; Semeradova, D.; Klem, K.; Huang, W.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Meitner, J.; Balek, J.; Havlik, P.; Buntgen, U. doi  openurl
  Title Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas Type Journal Article
  Year 2019 Publication Science Advances Abbreviated Journal Sci. Adv.  
  Volume 5 Issue 9 Pages eaau2406  
  Keywords climate-change impacts; sub-saharan africa; atmospheric co2; crop; yields; drought; agriculture; variability; irrigation; adaptation; carbon  
  Abstract Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near- simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas.  
  Address 2020-02-14  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume (up) Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2375-2548 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5227  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Tao, F.; Palosuo, T.; Roetter, R.P.; Hernandez Diaz-Ambrona, C.G.; Ines Minguez, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Cammarano, D.; Specka, X.; Nendel, C.; Srivastava, A.K.; Ewert, F.; Padovan, G.; Ferrise, R.; Martre, P.; Rodriguez, L.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Gaiser, T.; Hohn, J.G.; Salo, T.; Dibari, C.; Schulman, A.H. doi  openurl
  Title Why do crop models diverge substantially in climate impact projections? A comprehensive analysis based on eight barley crop models Type Journal Article
  Year 2020 Publication Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Abbreviated Journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology  
  Volume 281 Issue Pages 107851  
  Keywords agriculture; climate change; crop growth simulation; impact; model; improvement; uncertainty; air CO2 enrichment; elevated CO2; wheat growth; nitrogen dynamics; simulation-models; field experiment; atmospheric CO2; rice phenology; temperature; uncertainty  
  Abstract Robust projections of climate impact on crop growth and productivity by crop models are key to designing effective adaptations to cope with future climate risk. However, current crop models diverge strongly in their climate impact projections. Previous studies tried to compare or improve crop models regarding the impact of one single climate variable. However, this approach is insufficient, considering that crop growth and yield are affected by the interactive impacts of multiple climate change factors and multiple interrelated biophysical processes. Here, a new comprehensive analysis was conducted to look holistically at the reasons why crop models diverge substantially in climate impact projections and to investigate which biophysical processes and knowledge gaps are key factors affecting this uncertainty and should be given the highest priorities for improvement. First, eight barley models and eight climate projections for the 2050s were applied to investigate the uncertainty from crop model structure in climate impact projections for barley growth and yield at two sites: Jokioinen, Finland (Boreal) and Lleida, Spain (Mediterranean). Sensitivity analyses were then conducted on the responses of major crop processes to major climatic variables including temperature, precipitation, irradiation, and CO2, as well as their interactions, for each of the eight crop models. The results showed that the temperature and CO2 relationships in the models were the major sources of the large discrepancies among the models in climate impact projections. In particular, the impacts of increases in temperature and CO2 on leaf area development were identified as the major causes for the large uncertainty in simulating changes in evapotranspiration, above-ground biomass, and grain yield. Our findings highlight that advancements in understanding the basic processes and thresholds by which climate warming and CO2 increases will affect leaf area development, crop evapotranspiration, photosynthesis, and grain formation in contrasting environments are needed for modeling their impacts.  
  Address 2020-06-08  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume (up) Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN ISBN Medium article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5232  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Pasqui, M.; Primicerio, J.; Toscano, P.; Semenov, M.; Bindi, M. url  openurl
  Title Within-season predictions of durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin Type Conference Article
  Year 2014 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords  
  Abstract Crop yield is the result of the interactions between weather in the incoming season and how farmers decide to manage and protect their crops. According to Jones et al. (2000), uncertainties in the weather of the forthcoming season leads farmers to lose some productivity by taking management decisions based on their own experience of the climate or by adopting conservative strategies aimed at reducing the risks. Accordingly, predicting crop yield in advance, in response to different managements, environments and weathers would assist farm-management decisions(Lawless and Semenov, 2005). Following the approach described by Semenov and Doblas-Reyes (2007), this study aimed at assessing the utility of different seasonal forecasting methodologies in predicting durum wheat yield at 10 different sites across the Mediterranean Basin. The crop model, SiriusQuality (Martre et al., 2006), was used to compute wheat yield over a 10-years period. First, the model was run with a set of observed weather data to calculate the reference yield distributions. Then, starting from 1st January, yield predictions were produced at a monthly time-step using seasonal forecasts. The results were compared with the reference yields to assess the efficacy of the forecasting methodologies to estimate within-season yields. The results indicate that  durum wheat phenology and yield can be accurately predicted under Mediterranean conditions well before crop maturity, although some differences between the sites and the forecasting methodologies were revealed. Useful information can be thus provided for helping farmers to reduce negative impacts or take advantage from favorable conditions.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference  
  Series Volume (up) 3(S) Sassari, Italy Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5142  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Semenov, M.A.; Pilkington-Bennett, S. url  openurl
  Title Validation of ELPIS baseline scenarios using ECA&D observed data Type Conference Article
  Year 2012 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages 4151-4152  
  Keywords CropM  
  Abstract  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Geophysical Research Abstracts Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume (up) 14 Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference European GeoSciences Union (EGU), General Assembly 2012, 2012-04-22 to 2012-04-27  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2820  
Permanent link to this record
Select All    Deselect All
 |   | 
Details
   print

Save Citations:
Export Records: