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Schönhart, M., Schauppenlehner, T., & Schmid, E. (2014). Integrated land use modelling of climate change impacts – preliminary results from two Austrian case study landscapes. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: We present an integrated land use modelling framework (ILM) to analyze impacts of climate change and CAP reform as well as farm adaptation using economic, biotic and abiotic indicators at field, farm and landscape scales. The IML is applied on the two contrasting landscapes in the Austrian MACSUR regional pilot study. The scenarios cover climate and policy changes until 2040. The anticipated policy changes lead to declines in farm gross margins by -36% and -5% in the two landscapes, respectively. In contrast, climate change leads to higher gross margins, where farms can reach pre-reform levels on average. Environmental impacts such as removing of landscape elements and increasing fertilization can be moderated by an agri-environmental program, but the opportunity costs of program participation may increase.
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Sanna, M., Acutis, M., & Bellocchi, G. (2014). Interrelationship between evaluation metrics to assess agro-ecological models. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: When evaluating the performances of simulation models, the perception of the quality of the outputs may depend on the statistics used to compare simulated and observed data. In order to have a comprehensive understanding of model performance, the use of a variety of metrics is generally advocated. However, since they may be correlated, the use of two or more metrics may convey the same information, leading to redundancy. This study intends to investigate the interrelationship between evaluation metrics, with the aim of identifying the most useful set of indicators, for assessing simulation performance. Our focus is on agro-ecological modelling. Twenty-three performance indicators were selected to compare simulated and observed data of four agronomic and meteorological variables: above-ground biomass, leaf area index, hourly air relative humidity and daily solar radiation. Indicators were calculated on large data sets, collected to effectively apply correlation analysis techniques. For each variable, the interrelationship between each pair of indicators was evaluated, by computing the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. A definition of “stable correlation” was proposed, based on the test of heterogeneity, allowing to assess whether two or more correlation coefficients are equal. An optimal subset of indicators was identified, striking a balance between number of indicators, amount of provided information and information redundancy. They are: Index of Agreement, Squared Bias, Root Mean Squared Relative Error, Pattern Index, Persistence Model Efficiency and Spearman’s Correlation Coefficient. The present study was carried out in the context of CropM-LiveM cross-cutting activities of MACSUR knowledge hub.
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Camacho, C., & Perez-Barahona, A. (2014). Land use dynamics and the environment. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: This paper builds a benchmark framework to study optimal land use, encompassing land use activities and environmental degradation. We focus on the spatial externalities of land use as drivers of spatial patterns: land is immobile by nature, but location’s actions affect the whole space since pollution flows across locations resulting in both local and global damages. We prove that the decision maker problem has a solution, and characterize the corresponding social optimum trajectories by means of the Pontryagin conditions. We also show that the existence and uniqueness of steady-state solutions are not straightforward. Finally, a global dynamic algorithm is proposed in order to illustrate the spatial-dynamic richness of the model. We find that our simple set-up already reproduces a great variety of spatial patterns related to the interaction between land use activities and the environment. In particular, abatement technology turns out to play a central role as pollution stabilizer, allowing the economy to achieve stable steady-states that are spatially heterogeneous.
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Schneider, U. (2014). Land use science in the 21st century. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Political, technical, environmental, and scientific developments in the last decades have affected the aims and scope of modern land use research. Attention has shifted from a relatively narrow analysis of food and non-food production to more comprehensive studies of land based ecosystem services. A growing number of integrated assessments attempt to guide the future development of agricultural lands, managed forests, and terrestrial ecosystems in the coming decades towards efficiency and sustainability. The increasing links between distinct disciplines create many scientific opportunities but also new challenges. This talk will provide a brief summary of past achievements in integrated land use modeling and outline strategies for future development.
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Wolf, P., & Holz, K. (2014). LandPaKT. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: LandPaKT (agricultural techniques: potentials and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation) is a joint project of the Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering (ATB) and the Agricultural-Horticultural Faculty of the Humboldt University Berlin. Within the established graduate school LandPaKT, seven PhD students analyse the mitigation potentials and costs of greenhouse gas emissions systematically and merge them at the farm level. With the re-wetting of organic soils, the carbon sequestration in mineral soils depending on agricultural activities and the livestock husbandry, the most important sectors of agriculture are included in the analyses. With modelling and simulation approaches, single as well as combined measures are analysed with regard to their overall effect. Recommendations for the most-promising measures at farm level are deduced. Based on a farm model for water-use efficiency, developed within another ATB project (AgroHyd), LandPaKT aims to expand the model by greenhouse gas emissions. The graduate school started in May 2013.The increase of the global human population with the resulting increase in food demand accompanied by changed consumption patterns urgently calls for the exploitation of mitigation options in animal husbandry. Based on the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach, methodological recommendations for carbon footprint analyses for dairy farming will be developed. Furthermore, the influence of different feeds and feeding strategies on greenhouse gas emission from dairy farming will be investigated.
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