Camacho, C., & Perez-Barahona, A. (2014). Land use dynamics and the environment. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: This paper builds a benchmark framework to study optimal land use, encompassing land use activities and environmental degradation. We focus on the spatial externalities of land use as drivers of spatial patterns: land is immobile by nature, but location’s actions affect the whole space since pollution flows across locations resulting in both local and global damages. We prove that the decision maker problem has a solution, and characterize the corresponding social optimum trajectories by means of the Pontryagin conditions. We also show that the existence and uniqueness of steady-state solutions are not straightforward. Finally, a global dynamic algorithm is proposed in order to illustrate the spatial-dynamic richness of the model. We find that our simple set-up already reproduces a great variety of spatial patterns related to the interaction between land use activities and the environment. In particular, abatement technology turns out to play a central role as pollution stabilizer, allowing the economy to achieve stable steady-states that are spatially heterogeneous.
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Schneider, U. (2014). Land use science in the 21st century. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Political, technical, environmental, and scientific developments in the last decades have affected the aims and scope of modern land use research. Attention has shifted from a relatively narrow analysis of food and non-food production to more comprehensive studies of land based ecosystem services. A growing number of integrated assessments attempt to guide the future development of agricultural lands, managed forests, and terrestrial ecosystems in the coming decades towards efficiency and sustainability. The increasing links between distinct disciplines create many scientific opportunities but also new challenges. This talk will provide a brief summary of past achievements in integrated land use modeling and outline strategies for future development.
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Kipling, R. P., & Scollan, N. G. (2014). Livestock production and the feed challenge. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: It is predicted that world population will reach nine billion by 2050 (Godfray et al., 2010) with the biggest increases occurring in the developing world (Guyomard et al., 2013, Thornton, 2010). This growth is expected to dramatically increase the demand for meat and animal products (Tilman et al., 2002) with a requirement by 2050 for 73 % more meat and 58 % more milk than produced in 2010 (FAO, 2011). In order to meet this growing demand, the supply of livestock products must rise to an extent comparable with that of the ‘Green Revolution’ (Tilman et al., 2002). This must occur in the context of serious global challenges related to climate change, resource availability, inequality, and biodiversity loss. At present many European livestock production systems are heavily reliant on a small number of feed products to provide protein, with imported soya accounting for 55 % of the 2.6 million tonnes of plant-derived protein fed to animals in the UK. This reliance on a small number of imported products leaves supply vulnerable to economic and climatic change. There is increased research into alternatives to South American soybean in the European feed supply chain, including improving the nutritional and agronomic characteristics of such alternatives, and exploring the use of new sources of potential feed material. This presents an opportunity for collaboration between experimental researchers and modellers to investigate the potential impacts of alternative feeds on livestock system productivity, robustness to climate change and levels of GHG emissions.
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Spanna, F., Cassardo, C., Cavalletto, S., La Iacona, T., Vitali, M., & Balanzino, A. (2014). MACSUR Project – The case study of vineyards. Eco-physiological and biophysical modeling applied to the growth and productivity of vineyards in northwestern Italy. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Viticulture in Italy is one of the economically most important agricultural sectors. Recent research allows eco-physiological and biophysical models to develop tools able to provide support to the crop management, in terms of optimizing production performance and limiting environmental impacts. The ability to check on a daily basis the activities of vegetative and productive phases of vines is certainly a fundamental tool for the vineyard organization and management, and for linking the trends of growth and productivity with the quality of the final product: the wine. Since some years, some researches are taking place in the vineyards of northwestern Italy, with the aim of modeling the eco-physiological behavior of the vines, using and valorizing all available historical field data related to the vegetative and productive behavior of the vines, as well as laboratory qualitative data. At the same time, our team is evaluating two different modeling approaches: one biophysical, using the land surface scheme UTOPIA (University of TOrino land Process Interaction in Atmosphere), and another one eco-physiological. The case-study vineyards, referred to the northwestern Italian territory, is part of a wider working program involving several integrated teams from Italy, Spain and Germany. The objectives are: to improve the use of the models used by different groups; to compare the results obtained by different modeling tools; to create a common database of field measurements; to study the relationships between vegetative-productive behaviors and quality of productions.
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Curnel, Y. R. W. (2014). Meteorological risks as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: The extreme weather events, projected to increase both in frequency and magnitude with climate change have significant impact on agro-ecosystem services and pose severe limitations to sustainable agricultural land management. The proposed activities start from the hypothesis that these meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management. These activities deal with risks associated with extreme weather phenomena and with risks of biological origin (e.g. pests and diseases). In order to reach this objective, the following elements of the chain of risk should be considered: • Hazard (assessment of the likely frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological events)• Impact (analysis of the potential bio-physical and socio-economic impact of extreme weather events on agro-ecosystems)• Vulnerability (identification of the most vulnerable agro-ecosystems)• Risk Management (uncovering innovative risk management and adaptation options)These activities will concentrate on promoting a robust and flexible framework by demonstrating its performance across Belgian agro-ecosystems, and by ensuring its relevance to policy makers and practitioners. Impacts developed from physically based models will not only provide information on the state of the damage at any given time, but also assist in understanding the links between different factors causing damage and determining bio-physical vulnerability. Socio-economic impacts will enlarge the basis for vulnerability mapping, risk management and adaptation options. A strong expert and end-user network will be established to help exploiting project results to meet user needs
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