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Author |
Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, J.; Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R. |
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Title |
Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics – Czech |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Economics – Czech |
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Volume |
61 |
Issue |
11 |
Pages |
502-510 |
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Keywords |
climate changes; decision-making tools; estimation of parameters; forecasted outputs; gamma distribution; predicting yields; climate-change; emissions scenarios; impacts; potato; yield; growth; policy; scale; water |
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Abstract |
Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of our research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In this study, we analysed a non-standard mixture of gamma and one point distributions as the model of rainfall. On the basis of the rainfall data, one can estimate parameters of the distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed using a method of maximum likelihood. The obtained rainfall data allow confirming the hypothesis of the adequacy of the proposed rainfall models. Long series of droughts allow one to determine the probabilities of adverse phenomena in agriculture. Based on the model, yields of barley in the years 2030 and 2050 were forecasted which can be used for the assessment of other crops productivity. The results obtained with this approach can be used to predict decreases in agricultural production caused by prospective rainfall shortages. This will enable decision makers to shape effective agricultural policies in order to learn how to balance the food supplies and demands through an appropriate management of stored raw food materials and import/export policies. |
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English |
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0139-570x |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4644 |
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Author |
Galán, E.; Sanchis, E.; Estellés, F.; Calvet, S.; del Prado, A. |
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Title |
Heat stress effects in milk yield and milk traits at farm scale |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
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Volume |
7 |
Issue |
03 |
Pages |
238-239 |
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2040-4700 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4871 |
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Author |
Schönhart, M. |
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Title |
Heat stress impacts on cows in a case study landscape measured by an integrated modelling framework |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
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Volume |
7 |
Issue |
03 |
Pages |
235-237 |
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2040-4700 |
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LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4872 |
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Mendes, L.B.; Herrero, M.; Havlík, P.; Mosnier, A.; Balieiro, S.F.; Moreira, R.E.M.; Obersteiner, M. |
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Title |
Simulation of enteric methane emissions from individual beef cattle in tropical pastures of improving quality: a case study with the model RUMINANT |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
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Advances in Animal Biosciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
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Volume |
7 |
Issue |
03 |
Pages |
233-234 |
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2040-4700 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4873 |
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Author |
Calanca, P. |
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Title |
Modelling the impacts of seasonal drought on herbage growth under climate change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
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Volume |
7 |
Issue |
03 |
Pages |
231-232 |
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2040-4700 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4874 |
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