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Author |
Dono, G.; Cortignani, R.; Doro, L.; Giraldo, L.; Ledda, L.; Pasqui, M.; Roggero, P.P. |
Title |
An integrated assessment of the impacts of changing climate variability on agricultural productivity and profitability in an irrigated Mediterranean catchment |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Water Resource Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Water Resource Manage. |
Volume |
27 |
Issue |
10 |
Pages |
3607-3622 |
Keywords |
discrete stochastic programming; climate change variability; adaptation to climate change; net evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements; water availability; epic crops model; economic impact of climate change; precipitation; uncertainty; region; series; yield; model; scale; wheat; gis |
Abstract |
Climate change is likely to have a profound effect on many agricultural variables, although the extent of its influence will vary over the course of the annual farm management cycle. Consequently, the effect of different and interconnected physical, technical and economic factors must be modeled in order to estimate the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Such modeling commonly makes use of indicators that summarize the among environmental factors that are considered when farmers plan their activities. This study uses net evapotranspiration (ETN), estimated using EPIC, as a proxy index for the physical factors considered by farmers when managing irrigation. Recent trends suggest that the probability distribution function of ETN may continue to change in the near future due to changes in the irrigation needs of crops. Also, water availability may continue to vary due to changes in the rainfall regime. The impacts of the uncertainties related to these changes on costs are evaluated using a Discrete Stochastic Programming model representing an irrigable Mediterranean area where limited water is supplied from a reservoir. In this context, adaptation to climate change can be best supported by improvements to the collective irrigation systems, rather than by measures aimed at individual farms such as those contained within the rural development policy. |
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0920-4741 |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4487 |
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Author |
Conradt, T.; Wechsung, F.; Bronstert, A. |
Title |
Three perceptions of the evapotranspiration landscape: comparing spatial patterns from a distributed hydrological model, remotely sensed surface temperatures, and sub-basin water balances |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Hydrol. Earth System Sci. |
Volume |
17 |
Issue |
7 |
Pages |
2947-2966 |
Keywords |
senegal river-basin; data assimilation; sensing data; regional evapotranspiration; intercomparison project; environmental-models; oklahoma experiments; solar-radiation; satellite data; scale |
Abstract |
A problem encountered by many distributed hydrological modelling studies is high simulation errors at interior gauges when the model is only globally calibrated at the outlet. We simulated river runoff in the Elbe River basin in central Europe (148 268 km(2)) with the semi-distributed eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). While global parameter optimisation led to Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.9 at the main outlet gauge, comparisons with measured runoff series at interior points revealed large deviations. Therefore, we compared three different strategies for deriving sub-basin evapotranspiration: (1) modelled by SWIM without any spatial calibration, (2) derived from remotely sensed surface temperatures, and (3) calculated from long-term precipitation and discharge data. The results show certain consistencies between the modelled and the remote sensing based evapotranspiration rates, but there seems to be no correlation between remote sensing and water balance based estimations. Subsequent analyses for single sub-basins identify amongst others input weather data and systematic error amplification in inter-gauge discharge calculations as sources of uncertainty. The results encourage careful utilisation of different data sources for enhancements in distributed hydrological modelling. |
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1607-7938 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4485 |
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Bressan, R.A.; Park, H.C.; Orsini, F.; Oh, D.-ha; Dassanayake, M.; Inan, G.; Yun, D.-J.; Bohnert, H.J.; Maggio, A. |
Title |
Biotechnology for mechanisms that counteract salt stress in extremophile species: a genome-based view |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Plant Biotechnology Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
Plant Biotechnol. Rep. |
Volume |
7 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
27-37 |
Keywords |
Thellungiella; Extremophile species; Genome sequences; Abiotic stress; protection; Biotechnology potential; arabidopsis-thaliana; thellungiella-halophila; salinity stress; whole-genome; gene-expression; water-content; model system; tolerance; halophytes |
Abstract |
Molecular genetics has confirmed older research and generated new insights into the ways how plants deal with adverse conditions. This body of research is now being used to interpret stress behavior of plants in new ways, and to add results from most recent genomics-based studies. The new knowledge now includes genome sequences of species that show extreme abiotic stress tolerances, which enables new strategies for applications through either molecular breeding or transgenic engineering. We will highlight some physiological features of the extremophile lifestyle, outline emerging features about halophytism based on genomics, and discuss conclusions about underlying mechanisms. |
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1863-5466 1863-5474 |
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Review |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4483 |
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Author |
Calanca, P.; Semenov, M.A. |
Title |
Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database |
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Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Theoretical and Applied Climatology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Theor. Appl. Climatol. |
Volume |
113 |
Issue |
3-4 |
Pages |
445-455 |
Keywords |
stochastic weather generators; regional climate; lars-wg; daily; precipitation; models; simulation; europe; temperature; variability; heatwaves |
Abstract |
We present the integration of early 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to upgrade ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for use in impact studies and risk assessments that already included global projections from the CMIP3 ensemble and regional scenarios for Japan. To obtain a more reliable simulation of daily rainfall and extremes, changes in wet and dry series derived from daily ENSEMBLES outputs were taken into account. Kernel average smoothers were used to reduce noise arising from sampling artefacts. Examples of risk analyses based on 25-km climate projections from the ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional climate models illustrate the possibilities offered by the updated version of ELPIS. The results stress the importance of tailored information for local-scale impact assessments at the European level. |
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0177-798x 1434-4483 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4484 |
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Author |
Jing, Q.; Bélanger, G.; Baron, V.; Bonesmo, H.; Virkajärvi, P.; Young, D. |
Title |
Regrowth simulation of the perennial grass timothy |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Ecological Modelling |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Model. |
Volume |
232 |
Issue |
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Pages |
64-77 |
Keywords |
biomass; carbohydrate; leaf area index; n uptake; reserve-dependent growth; temperature; nutritive-value; carbohydrate reserves; phleum-pratense; catimo model; leaf-area; nitrogen-fertilization; spring harvest; meadow fescue; tall fescue; growth |
Abstract |
Several process-based models for simulating the growth of perennial grasses have been developed but few include the simulation of regrowth. The model CATIMO simulates the primary growth of timothy (Phleum pratense L), an important perennial forage grass species in northern regions of Europe and North America. Our objective was to further develop the model CATIMO to simulate timothy regrowth using the concept of reserve-dependent growth. The performance of this modified CATIMO model in simulating leaf area index (LAI), biomass dry matter (DM) yield, and N uptake of regrowth was assessed with data from four independent field experiments in Norway, Finland, and western and eastern Canada using an approach that combines graphical comparison and statistical analysis. Biomass DM yield and N uptake of regrowth were predicted at the same accuracy as primary growth with linear regression coefficients of determination between measured and simulated values greater than 0.79, model simulation efficiencies greater than 0.78, and normalized root mean square errors (14-30% for biomass and 24-34% for N uptake) comparable with the coefficients of variation of measured data (1-21% for biomass and 1-25% for N uptake). The model satisfactorily simulated the regrowth LAI but only up to a value of about 4.0. The modified CATIMO model with its capacity to simulate regrowth provides a framework to simulate perennial grasses with multiple harvests, and to explore management options for sustainable grass production under different environmental conditions. Crown Copyright (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0304-3800 |
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CropM, LiveM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4473 |
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