Records |
Author |
Schmitz, C.; Kreidenweis, U.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Krause, M.; Dietrich, J.P.; Müller, C. |
Title |
Agricultural trade and tropical deforestation: interactions and related policy options |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Regional Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Reg Environ Change |
Volume |
15 |
Issue |
8 |
Pages |
1757-1772 |
Keywords |
Land-use change; Trade liberalisation; Tropical deforestation; Forest; protection; Agricultural productivity growth; land-use; brazilian amazon; co2 concentrations; carbon emissions; conservation; climate; mitigation; forests; impact; growth; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
Abstract |
The extensive clearing of tropical forests throughout past decades has been partly assigned to increased trade in agricultural goods. Since further trade liberalisation can be expected, remaining rainforests are likely to face additional threats with negative implications for climate mitigation and the local environment. We apply a spatially explicit economic land-use model coupled to a biophysical vegetation model to examine linkages and associated policies between trade and tropical deforestation in the future. Results indicate that further trade liberalisation leads to an expansion of deforestation in Amazonia due to comparative advantages of agriculture in South America. Globally, between 30 and 60 million ha (5-10 %) of tropical rainforests would be cleared additionally, leading to 20-40 Gt additional emissions by 2050. By applying different forest protection policies, those values could be reduced substantially. Most effective would be the inclusion of avoided deforestation into a global emissions trading scheme. Carbon prices corresponding to the concentration target of 550 ppm would prevent deforestation after 2020. Investing in agricultural productivity reduces pressure on tropical forests without the necessity of direct protection. In general, additional trade-induced demand from developed and emerging countries should be compensated by international efforts to protect natural resources in tropical regions. |
Address |
2016-10-31 |
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Language |
English |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1436-3798 1436-378x |
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Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4810 |
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Author |
Sakschewski, B.; von Bloh, W.; Huber, V.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A. |
Title |
Feeding 10 billion people under climate change: How large is the production gap of current agricultural systems |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Ecological Modelling |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Model. |
Volume |
288 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
103-111 |
Keywords |
Population growth; Food production; Dynamic global vegetation model; Climate change; LPJmL; stomatal conductance; population-growth; food-production; co2; enrichment; model; photosynthesis; scenarios; leaves; plants; yield |
Abstract |
The human population is projected to reach more than 10 billion in the year 2100. Together with changing consumption pattern, population growth will lead to increasing food demand. The question arises whether or not the Earth is capable of fulfilling this demand. In this study, we approach this question by estimating the carrying capacity of current agricultural systems (K-C), which does not measure the maximum number of people the Earth is likely to feed in the future, but rather allows for an indirect assessment of the increases in agricultural productivity required to meet demands. We project agricultural food production under progressing climate change using the state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL, and input data of 3 climate models. For 1990 to 2100 the worldwide annual caloric yield of the most important 11 crop types is simulated. Model runs with and without elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are performed in order to investigate CO2 fertilization effects. Country-specific per-capita caloric demands fixed at current levels and changing demands based on future GDP projections are considered to assess the role of future dietary shifts. Our results indicate that current population projections may considerably exceed the maximum number of people that can be fed globally if climate change is not accompanied by significant changes in land use, agricultural efficiencies and/or consumption pathways. We estimate the gap between projected population size and K-C to reach 2 to 6.8 billion people by 2100. We also present possible caloric self-supply changes between 2000 and 2100 for all countries included in this study. The results show that predominantly developing countries in tropical and subtropical regions will experience vast decreases of self-supply. Therefore, this study is important for planning future large-scale agricultural management, as well as the critical assessment of population projections, which should take food-mediated climate change feedbacks into account |
Address |
2016-10-31 |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0304-3800 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Article |
Area |
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Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4806 |
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Author |
Rötter, R.P.; Tao, F.; Höhn, J.G.; Palosuo, T. |
Title |
Use of crop simulation modelling to aid ideotype design of future cereal cultivars |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
Volume |
66 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
3463-3476 |
Keywords |
Breeding/*methods; Climate Change; *Computer Simulation; Ecotype; Edible Grain/*growth & development; *Models, Theoretical; cereals; climate extremes; crop growth simulation; ensemble modelling; future cultivars; genetic modelling; ideotype breeding; model improvement; model-aided design |
Abstract |
A major challenge of the 21st century is to achieve food supply security under a changing climate and roughly a doubling in food demand by 2050 compared to present, the majority of which needs to be met by the cereals wheat, rice, maize, and barley. Future harvests are expected to be especially threatened through increased frequency and severity of extreme events, such as heat waves and drought, that pose particular challenges to plant breeders and crop scientists. Process-based crop models developed for simulating interactions between genotype, environment, and management are widely applied to assess impacts of environmental change on crop yield potentials, phenology, water use, etc. During the last decades, crop simulation has become important for supporting plant breeding, in particular in designing ideotypes, i.e. ‘model plants’, for different crops and cultivation environments. In this review we (i) examine the main limitations of crop simulation modelling for supporting ideotype breeding, (ii) describe developments in cultivar traits in response to climate variations, and (iii) present examples of how crop simulation has supported evaluation and design of cereal cultivars for future conditions. An early success story for rice demonstrates the potential of crop simulation modelling for ideotype breeding. Combining conventional crop simulation with new breeding methods and genetic modelling holds promise to accelerate delivery of future cereal cultivars for different environments. Robustness of model-aided ideotype design can further be enhanced through continued improvements of simulation models to better capture effects of extremes and the use of multi-model ensembles. |
Address |
2016-10-31 |
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English |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0022-0957 1460-2431 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Review |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4804 |
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Author |
Zimmermann, A.; Britz, W.; Adenäuer, M.; Heckelei, T. |
Title |
Food Security Assessment with CAPRI |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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Keywords |
TradeM |
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Conference |
MACSUR TradeM workshop: Exploring new ideas for trade and agriculture model integration for assessing the impacts of climate change on food security, The Natural Resource and Environmental Research Center (NRERC), University of Haifa, Israel, 2013-03-03 t |
Notes |
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Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2931 |
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Author |
Zimmermann, A.; Adenäuer, M. |
Title |
Exploring yield trends and gaps in the EU |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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Keywords |
TradeM; |
Abstract |
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Place of Publication |
Hurdal (Norway) |
Editor |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISBN |
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Conference |
MACSUR TradeM International Workshop »Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector«, 2014-11-25 to 2014-11-27, Hurdal |
Notes |
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Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2928 |
Permanent link to this record |