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Lotze-Campen, H.; von Lampe, M.; Kyle, P.; Fujimori, S.; Havlik, P.; van Meijl, H.; Hasegawa, T.; Popp, A.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Valin, H.; Willenbockel, D.; Wise, M. |
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Title |
Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
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45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
103-116 |
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Keywords |
energy demand; agricultural markets; general equilibrium modeling; partial equilibrium modeling; model comparison; greenhouse-gas emissions; land-use; energy; productivity; scenarios; policies; capture; storage; system |
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Abstract |
Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, for example, from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an ambitious mitigation scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in a high-emission scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise. |
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English |
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0169-5150 |
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CropM, TradeM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4532 |
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Author |
Havlik, P.; Leclere, D.; Valin, H.; Herrero, M.; Schmid, E.; Obersteiner, M. |
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Title |
Effects of climate change on feed availability and the implications for the livestock sector |
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Conference Article |
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2014 |
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Global mean surface temperature is projected to rise by 0.4-2.6°C until 2050, and the contrast in precipitations between wet and dry regions and wet and dry seasons will also increase according to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (2013). The climate change will impact livestock in many ways going from heat stress through livestock diseases to feed quality and availability (Thornton et al., 2009). Recently, projected climate change impacts on crop and grassland productivity became available with high spatial resolution at global scale through the AgMIP and ISI-MIP projects. The objective of this paper is to investigate how climate change impacts on crops and grassland will influence livestock production globally and its distribution across regions. This analysis is carried out using the global partial equilibrium agricultural and forestry sector model GLOBIOM (Havlík et al., 2013). The model represents agricultural production at a spatial resolution going down to 5 x 5 minutes of arc. Crop and grassland productivities are estimated by means of biophysical process based models (EPIC and CENTURY) at this resolution for current and future climate. Livestock representation follows a simplified version of the Seré and Steinfeld (1996) production system classification. This approach recognizes differences in feed base and productivities between grazing and mixed crop-livestock production systems across different agro-ecological zones (arid, humid, temperate/highlands). Our study highlights that the differential impacts of climate change on crop and grassland productivity will influence the relative competitiveness of different livestock production systems. Maintaining livestock production in some regions will depend on their capacity to adapt. Institutional and physical infrastructure will be needed to facilitate these transformations. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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5076 |
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Trnka, M.; Feng, S.; Semenov, M.A.; Olesen, J.E.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Roetter, R.P.; Semeradova, D.; Klem, K.; Huang, W.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Meitner, J.; Balek, J.; Havlik, P.; Buntgen, U. |
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Title |
Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas |
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Journal Article |
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2019 |
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Science Advances |
Abbreviated Journal |
Sci. Adv. |
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5 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
eaau2406 |
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Keywords |
climate-change impacts; sub-saharan africa; atmospheric co2; crop; yields; drought; agriculture; variability; irrigation; adaptation; carbon |
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Abstract |
Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near- simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas. |
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2020-02-14 |
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English |
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2375-2548 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5227 |
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