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| Author |
Hoveid, Ø. |
| Title |
What are the risks of food price changes? A time series analysis |
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Report |
| Year |
2016 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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9 C6 - |
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Sp9-2 |
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It is a widely held belief (IPCC) that climate change bringsmore risks to the worldI Since the start of MACSUR, TradeM has had risk on theagenda, but few results have so far come out. It has beenclaimed though, that there is no evidence for more risk in theglobal wheat market (Steen and Gjølberg 2014) (TradeMworkshop at Hurdalssjøen)I I have myself had the ambition of creating a dynamicstochastic model of the food system in which risk would be anintegral part, but time has been too shortI I have also pointed to methods from finance to reveal insights,and that is the road to be followed here, guided by Bølviken &Benth (2000) Buyer’s risk larger than seller’s risk — due to asymmetricdistribution of returns. Large price jumps are more likely thanequally sized price falls.I Long term positions much more risky than short term ones —as expectedI Agricultural commodities much less risky than crude oilI Price risk are related to volatility, and their changes over timewill have similar causal explanationsI Risks of producers and consumers of agricultural commoditieswill to some extent be related to the price risk, and also totheir portfolios and the co-variance between returns |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4831 |
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Øygarden, L.; Höglind, M.; Harstad, M.; Hoveid, Ø. |
| Title |
Modelling European Agriculture with Climate change for food security |
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2013 |
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CropM |
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Bioforsk conference 2013. Proceedings in; Bioforsk Fokus Vol. 8 Nr 2. 2013. pp 372-374. Editors; Erling Fløistad & Morten Gunther. 390 pp. ISBN 978-82-17-00998-6., 2013-02-06 to 2013-02-07 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2689 |
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Hoveid, Ø. |
| Title |
An economist’ wish list for crop modelling |
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2014 |
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TradeM |
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MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2493 |
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Hoveid, Ø. |
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Linking models of climate, weather, crops and economic behavior by Bayesian calibration.” |
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2014 |
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TradeM |
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MACSUR TradeM workshop: Exploring new ideas for trade and agriculture model integration for assessing the impacts of climate change on food security, The Natural Resource and Environmental Research Center (NRERC), University of Haifa, Israel, 2013-03-03 t |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2494 |
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Hoveid, Ø. |
| Title |
Progress on Tools, Data, Models |
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2013 |
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TradeM |
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MACSUR TradeM Workshop on Global Food Security Challenges – European Research approaches. Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany, 2013-11-18 to 2013-11-20 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2492 |
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