| Records |
| Author |
Tao, F.; Roetter, R.P.; Palosuo, T.; Hernandez Diaz-Ambrona, C.G.; Ines Minguez, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C.; Specka, X.; Hoffmann, H.; Ewert, F.; Dambreville, A.; Martre, P.; Rodriguez, L.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Gaiser, T.; Hohn, J.G.; Salo, T.; Ferrise, R.; Bindi, M.; Cammarano, D.; Schulman, A.H. |
| Title |
Contribution of crop model structure, parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
| Volume |
24 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
1291-1307 |
| Keywords |
barley; climate change; Europe; impact; super-ensemble; uncertainty; Nitrogen Dynamics; Multimodel Ensembles; Simulation-Models; Change; Scenarios; Yield; Rice; Weather; Growth; Wheat; Maize |
| Abstract |
Climate change impact assessments are plagued with uncertainties from many sources, such as climate projections or the inadequacies in structure and parameters of the impact model. Previous studies tried to account for the uncertainty from one or two of these. Here, we developed a triple-ensemble probabilistic assessment using seven crop models, multiple sets of model parameters and eight contrasting climate projections together to comprehensively account for uncertainties from these three important sources. We demonstrated the approach in assessing climate change impact on barley growth and yield at Jokioinen, Finland in the Boreal climatic zone and Lleida, Spain in the Mediterranean climatic zone, for the 2050s. We further quantified and compared the contribution of crop model structure, crop model parameters and climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Based on the triple-ensemble probabilistic assessment, the median of simulated yield change was -4% and +16%, and the probability of decreasing yield was 63% and 31% in the 2050s, at Jokioinen and Lleida, respectively, relative to 1981-2010. The contribution of crop model structure to the total variance of ensemble output was larger than that from downscaled climate projections and model parameters. The relative contribution of crop model parameters and downscaled climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output varied greatly among the seven crop models and between the two sites. The contribution of downscaled climate projections was on average larger than that of crop model parameters. This information on the uncertainty from different sources can be quite useful for model users to decide where to put the most effort when preparing or choosing models or parameters for impact analyses. We concluded that the triple-ensemble probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties from multiple important sources provide more comprehensive information for quantifying uncertainties in climate change impact assessments as compared to the conventional approaches that are deterministic or only account for the uncertainties from one or two of the uncertainty sources. |
| Address |
2018-03-08 |
| Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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| Publisher |
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Place of Publication |
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Editor |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor  |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1354-1013 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
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| Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5194 |
| Permanent link to this record |
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| Author |
Luo, K.; Tao, F.; Deng, X.; Moiwo, J.P. |
| Title |
Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff in 1981-2010 and the driving factors in Upper Heihe River Basin in Northwest China |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Hydrological Processes |
Abbreviated Journal |
Hydrol. Process. |
| Volume |
31 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
90-103 |
| Keywords |
driving factor; potential evaporation; surface runoff; SWAT model; Upper Heihe River Basin; SWAT Hydrologic Model; Pan Evaporation; Vegetation Model; Climate-Change; Water; Trends; Precipitation; Uncertainty; Variability; Generation |
| Abstract |
Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff can have profound implications for hydrological processes in arid and semiarid regions. In this study, we investigated the response of hydrological processes to climate change in Upper Heihe River Basin in Northwest China for the period from 1981 to 2010. We used agronomic, climatic and hydrological data to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model for changes in potential evapotranspiration (ET0) and surface runoff and the driving factors in the study area. The results showed that increasing autumn temperature increased snow melt, resulting in increased surface runoff, especially in September and October. The spatial distribution of annual runoff was different from that of seasonal runoff, with the highest runoff in Yeniugou River, followed by Babaohe River and then the tributaries in the northern of the basin. There was no evaporation paradox at annual and seasonal time scales, and annual ET0 was driven mainly by wind speed. ET0 was driven by relative humidity in spring, sunshine hour duration in autumn and both sunshine hour duration and relative humility in summer. Surface runoff was controlled by temperature in spring and winter and by precipitation in summer (flood season). Although surface runoff increased in autumn with increasing temperature, it depended on rainfall in September and on temperature in October and November. Copyright (C) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
| Address |
2018-08-23 |
| Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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| Publisher |
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Place of Publication |
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Editor |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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| Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0885-6087 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
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| Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5207 |
| Permanent link to this record |
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| Author |
Rodriguez, A.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Palosuo, T.; Carter, T.R.; Fronzek, S.; Lorite, I.J.; Ferrise, R.; Pirttioja, N.; Bindi, M.; Baranowski, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Chen, Y.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Hohn, J.G.; Jurecka, F.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lana, M.; Mechiche-Alami, A.; Minet, J.; Montesino, M.; Nendel, C.; Porter, J.R.; Ruget, F.; Semenov, M.A.; Steinmetz, Z.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; de Wit, A.; Roetter, R.P. |
| Title |
Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
| Volume |
264 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
351-362 |
| Keywords |
Wheat adaptation; Uncertainty; Climate change; Decision support; Response surface; Outcome confidence; Climate-Change Impacts; Response Surfaces; Wheat; Uncertainty; Yield; Simulation; 21St-Century; Productivity; Temperature; Projections |
| Abstract |
unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised. Moreover, results and derived recommendations typically rely on averaged ensemble simulation results without accounting sufficiently for the spread of model outcomes. Therefore, we developed an Ensemble Outcome Agreement (EOA) index, which analyses the effect of changes in composition and size of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to evaluate the level of agreement between MME outcomes with respect to a given hypothesis (e.g. that adaptation measures result in positive crop responses). We analysed the recommendations of a previous study performed with an ensemble of 17 crop models and testing 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivwn L.) at Lleida (NE Spain) under perturbed conditions of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results confirmed that most adaptations recommended in the previous study have a positive effect. However, we also showed that some options did not remain recommendable in specific conditions if different ensembles were considered. Using EOA, we were able to identify the adaptation options for which there is high confidence in their effectiveness at enhancing yields, even under severe climate perturbations. These include substituting spring wheat for winter wheat combined with earlier sowing dates and standard or longer duration cultivars, or introducing supplementary irrigation, the latter increasing EOA values in all cases. There is low confidence in recovering yields to baseline levels, although this target could be attained for some adaptation options under moderate climate perturbations. Recommendations derived from such robust results may provide crucial information for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures. |
| Address |
2019-01-07 |
| Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Place of Publication |
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Editor |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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| Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0168-1923 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
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| Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5214 |
| Permanent link to this record |
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| Author |
Rötter, R.P.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Basso, B.; Ruane, A.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.; Brisson, N.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Pertuzzi; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Müller, C.; Kumar, S.N.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J. |
| Title |
Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Crop Water Use under Climate Change |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Keywords |
CropM |
| Abstract |
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| Address |
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| Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Place of Publication |
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Editor |
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| Language |
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Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISBN |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects, Potsdam, Germany, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-30 |
| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2767 |
| Permanent link to this record |
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| Author |
Rötter, P.; Palosuo, T.; Semenov, M.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Tao, F.; Fronzek, S.; Pirttioja, K.; Bindi, M.; Carter, R.; Hoffmann, H.; Höhn, J.; Kersebaum, C.; Trnka, M. |
| Title |
Designing new cereal cultivars as an adaptation measure using crop model ensembles |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Keywords |
CropM |
| Abstract |
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| Address |
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| Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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| Publisher |
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Place of Publication |
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Editor |
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| Language |
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Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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| Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISBN |
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Medium |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2768 |
| Permanent link to this record |
