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Nendel, C.; Wieland, R.; Mirschel, W.; Specka, X.; Kersebaum, K.-C. |
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Die Simulation von Winterweizenerträgen in Thüringen unter Verwendung von meteorologischen Daten unterschiedlicher räumlicher Auflösung |
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2013 |
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CropM |
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33. GIL-Jahrestagung in Potsdam 2013 - Massendatenmanagement in der Agrar- und Ernährungswirtschaft, 2013-02-21 to 2013-02-21 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2680 |
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Mitter, H.; Sinabell, F.; E., S. |
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Assessing climate change and policy impacts on protein crop production in Austria |
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2013 |
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527-535 |
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TradeM |
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Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects, Potsdam, Germany, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-30 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2647 |
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Köchy, M.; Banse, M. |
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Food security — is climate important at all? |
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Conference Article |
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2013 |
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165-172 |
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Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects, Potsdam, Germany, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-30 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2554 |
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Dumont, B.; Basso, B.; Leemans, V.; Bodson, B.; Destain, J.-P.; Destain, M.-F. |
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A Site-Specific Grain Yield Response Surface : Computing the Identity Card of a Crop Under Different Nitrogen Management Scenarios |
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2013 |
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CropM |
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Proceedings of the EFITA-WCCA-CIGR 2013 - Sustainable Agriculture through ICT innovation, 2013-11-03 to 2013-11-06, Torino |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2408 |
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Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Ruane, A.C.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.J.; Rötter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J. |
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Title |
Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
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Nature Climate Change |
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Nat. Clim. Change |
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3 |
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9 |
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827-832 |
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Keywords |
crop production; models; food; co2; temperature; projections; adaptation; scenarios; ensemble; impacts |
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Abstract |
Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain(1). Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate(2). However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models(1,3) are difficult(4). Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking. |
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English |
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1758-678x |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur, IPCC-AR5 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4599 |
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