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Author Trnka, M.; Rötter, R.P.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Žalud, Z.; Semenov, M.A.
Title Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change Type Journal Article
Year 2014 Publication Nature Climate Change Abbreviated Journal Nat. Clim. Change
Volume 4 Issue 7 Pages 637-643
Keywords scenarios; increase; models; variability; responses; extremes; impacts; shifts
Abstract Europe is the largest producer of wheat, the second most widely grown cereal crop after rice. The increased occurrence and magnitude of adverse and extreme agroclimatic events are considered a major threat for wheat production. We present an analysis that accounts for a range of adverse weather events that might significantly affect wheat yield in Europe. For this purpose we analysed changes in the frequency of the occurrence of 11 adverse weather events. Using climate scenarios based on the most recent ensemble of climate models and greenhouse gases emission estimates, we assessed the probability of single and multiple adverse events occurring within one season. We showed that the occurrence of adverse conditions for 14 sites representing the main European wheat-growing areas might substantially increase by 2060 compared to the present (1981-2010). This is likely to result in more frequent crop failure across Europe. This study provides essential information for developing adaptation strategies.
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Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1758-678x 1758-6798 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial (down) 4545
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Author Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, H.; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; van Ittersum, M.K.; Janssen, S.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartošová, L.; Asseng, S.
Title Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Environmental Modelling & Software Abbreviated Journal Env. Model. Softw.
Volume 72 Issue Pages 287-303
Keywords uncertainty; scaling; integrated assessment; risk assessment; adaptation; crop models; agricultural land-use; change adaptation strategies; farming systems simulation; agri-environmental systems; enrichment face experiment; high-temperature stress; change impacts; nitrogen dynamics; atmospheric co2; spring wheat
Abstract The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches.
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Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
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ISSN 1364-8152 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial (down) 4521
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Author Yin, X.; Olesen, J.E.; Li, W.; Wang, M.; Zhang, H.
Title Contributions of climatic, technological and social factors to maize yield in the northeast farming region of China during 1985 to 2009 Type Manuscript
Year 2015 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords CropM
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Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
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ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial (down) 2912
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Author Yin, X.; Olesen, J.E.; Wang, M.; Öztürk, I.; Chen, F.
Title Observed and anticipated impacts and adaptation of crop production systems to climate change in the northeast farming region of China Type Manuscript
Year Publication Abbreviated Journal
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Keywords CropM;
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Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
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Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial (down) 2911
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Author Yin, X.; Olesen, J.E.; Li, W.; Wang, M.; Öztürk, I.; Chen, F.
Title Climate effects on crop yield in the northeast farming region of China during 1961 to 2010 Type Manuscript
Year Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords CropM
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial (down) 2910
Permanent link to this record