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Schönhart, M., Schauppenlehner, T., Schmid, E., & Sinabell, F. (2014). Regional Pilot Case Study Mostviertel – AT: Preliminary Results. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: An integrated modelling framework (IMF) is developed to analyse impacts of climate andpolicy changes on farm welfare and the environment. The IMF is applied on two contrasting grassland (south) and cropland (north) dominated Austrian landscapes. The IMF combines the crop rotation model CropRota, the bio-physical process model EPIC and the bio-economic farm model FAMOS[space] and applies combined climate change and policy scenarios. Changing policies reduce farm gross margins by -36% and -5% in the two landscapes respectively. Climate change increases gross margins and farms can reach pre-reform levels on average. Climate induced intensification such as removing of landscape elements andincreasing fertilization can be moderated by an agri-environmental program (AEP). However, productivity gains from climate change increase the opportunity costs for AEP participation.
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Lehtonen, H. S., Kässi, P., Korhonen, P., Niskanen, O., Rötter, R., Palosuo, T., et al. (2014). Problems and opportunities in climate change adaptation in North Savo region. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Crop production for feed dominates land use in North Savo in eastern Finland. The value of dairy and beef production is appr. 70 % of the total value of agricultural production of the region. In climate change adaptation research we are especially interested in dairy and meat sectors, which are directly dependent on the development of productivity of crop production. Climate change implies changes in cereals and forage crop yields and nutritive quality. There are most likely increasing problems and risks related to overwintering and growing periods. Grass silage is mainly self-produced on farms and most often there is no market for silage. Silage production and use are vulnerable to changes in local climate, because lost yield cannot be easily replaced from market. Risks and costs due to increasing inter-annual yield volatility can be reduced by good management practices, such as crop rotation, plant protection, soil improvements and better crop protection against plant diseases.However the profitability of such measures is dependent on market and policy conditions. Nevertheless new cultivars and species, as well as various options for production and risk management, are most likely needed in future climate. Some adaptations may have multiple benefits which however may realize only in medium or long run. It is important to safeguard the most important and obviously needed adaptations, and identify market and socio-economic conditions which inhibit farmers from necessary adaptations and lead to reduced productivity and increased production costs.
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Lehtonen, H. S., Kässi, P., Korhonen, P., Niskanen, O., Rötter, R., Palosuo, T., et al. (2014). Problems and opportunities in climate change adaptation in North Savo region. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Crop production for feed dominates land use in North Savo in eastern Finland. The value of dairy and beef production is appr. 70 % of the total value of agricultural production of the region. In climate change adaptation research we are especially interested in dairy and meat sectors, which are directly dependent on the development of productivity of crop production. Climate change implies changes in cereals and forage crop yields and nutritive quality. There are most likely increasing problems and risks related to overwintering and growing periods. Grass silage is mainly self-produced on farms and most often there is no market for silage. Silage production and use are vulnerable to changes in local climate, because lost yield cannot be easily replaced from market. Risks and costs due to increasing inter-annual yield volatility can be reduced by good management practices, such as crop rotation, plant protection, soil improvements and better crop protection against plant diseases.However the profitability of such measures is dependent on market and policy conditions. Nevertheless new cultivars and species, as well as various options for production and risk management, are most likely needed in future climate. Some adaptations may have multiple benefits which however may realize only in medium or long run. It is important to safeguard the most important and obviously needed adaptations, and identify market and socio-economic conditions which inhibit farmers from necessary adaptations and lead to reduced productivity and increased production costs.
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Van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A., Evers, A., & De Haan, M. (2014). Modelling emissions of greenhouse gases from dairy farms in the Netherlands using DairyWise. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: The DairyWise model (Schils et al., 2007) is an empirical model that simulates technical, environmental, and financial processes on a dairy farm. The central component is the FeedSupply model that balances the herd requirements, as generated by the DairyHerd model, and the supply of home-grown feeds, as generated by the crop models for grassland and silage maize. The GrassGrowth model predicts the daily rate of DM accumulation of grass, including several feed quality parameters. Depending on (daily) grazing, the amount of grass silage is calculated which also leads to the purchase (or sale) of roughage. The final output is a farm plan describing cattle performance, crop yield, grazing, feeding, and nutrient flows and the consequences on the environment and economy. The capabilities of DairyWise will be illustrated at the MACSUR meeting in Sassari with results of dairy farming in the Netherlands: farm characteristics, economics, NPK balances and greenhouse gas emissions.
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Zander, P., Schuler, J., Porwollik, V., & Hecker, J. - M. (2014). Modelling approach and first results on irrigation as climate change adaptation strategy of the project NaLaMa-nT. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: The project NaLaMa-nT examines in the context of climate change sustainable development paths of land use in four different rural districts in Northern Germany. These districts were chosen along a soil-climate gradient from west to east with increasing water deficit for plant growth caused by both: decreasing rain fall and decreasing soil quality. In front of this background different trends and developments of agricultural production can be derived from analysing, modelling and comparing existing production systems and conditions of the different regions. One assumption developed from existing climate projections is that climate change will cause increasing water deficits for plant growth – especially in the eastern part of Germany. An obvious solution is to intensify agricultural production using existing irrigation methods that can reduce the yield risk and thus stabilize income from agriculture by avoiding yield failures and increasing the overall yield level. Therefore we build a modelling approach which allows an economic analysis both on the crop production activity level as well on the farm level. The data base comprises data representing recent production techniques and added optional irrigation techniques. The yields and input level changes are derived from literature studies and expert interviews. The farm structure is represented and modeled based on typical farms chosen from an IACS-data farm typology with different production potentials and patterns. First results will be presented in April.
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