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Author |
Leclère, D.; Jayet, P.-A.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N. |
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Title |
Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Ecological Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Econ. |
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87 |
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Pages |
1-14 |
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climate change; agriculture; europe; residual impact; autonomous adaptation; water use efficiency; modeling; land-use; integrated assessment; future scenarios; change impacts; model; vulnerability; performance; emissions; nitrogen; lessons |
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Abstract |
The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0921-8009 |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4606 |
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Author |
Angulo, C.; Rötter, R.; Lock, R.; Enders, A.; Fronzek, S.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Implication of crop model calibration strategies for assessing regional impacts of climate change in Europe |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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170 |
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32-46 |
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Keywords |
regional crop modelling; calibration; impact assessment; yield variability; simulation; simulation-models; elevated CO2; integrated assessment; bayesian calibration; atmospheric CO2; growth simulation; use efficiency; spring wheat; winter-wheat; large-area |
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Process-based crop simulation models are increasingly used in regional climate change impact studies, but little is known about the implications of different calibration strategies on simulated yields. This study aims to assess the importance of region-specific calibration of five important field crops (winter wheat, winter barley, potato, sugar beet and maize) across 25 member countries of the European Union (EU25). We examine three calibration strategies and their implications on spatial and temporal yield variability in response to climate change: (i) calculation of phenology parameters only, (ii) consideration of both phenology calibration and a yield correction factor and (iii) calibration of phenology and selected growth processes. The analysis is conducted for 533 climate zones, considering 24 years of observed yield data (1983-2006). The best performing strategy is used to estimate the impacts of climate change, increasing CO2 concentration and technology development on yields for the five crops across EU25, using seven climate change scenarios for the period 2041-2064. Simulations and calibrations are performed with the crop model LINTUL2 combined with a calibration routine implemented in the modelling interface LINTUL-FAST. The results show that yield simulations improve if growth parameters are considered in the calibration for individual regions (strategy 3); e.g. RMSE values for simulated winter wheat yield are 2.36, 1.10 and 0.70 Mg ha(-1) for calibration strategies 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The calibration strategy did not only affect the model simulations under reference climate but also the extent of the simulated climate change impacts. Applying the calibrated model for impact assessment revealed that climatic change alone will reduce crop yields. Consideration of the effects of increasing CO2 concentration and technology development resulted in yield increases for all crops except maize (i.e. the negative effects of climate change were outbalanced by the positive effects of CO2 and technology change), with considerable differences between scenarios and regions. Our simulations also suggest some increase in yield variability due to climate change which, however, is less pronounced than the differences among scenarios which are particularly large when the effects of CO2 concentration and technology development are considered. Our results stress the need for region-specific calibration of crop models used for Europe-wide assessments. Limitations of the considered strategies are discussed. We recommend that future work should focus on obtaining more comprehensive, high quality data with a finer resolution allowing application of improved strategies for model calibration that better account for spatial differences and changes over time in the growth and development parameters used in crop models. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4597 |
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Author |
Pilbeam, D.J. |
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Title |
Breeding crops for improved mineral nutrition under climate change conditions |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
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66 |
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12 |
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3511-3421 |
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Keywords |
Breeding/*methods; *Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural/*growth & development; Environment; Minerals/*metabolism; *Nutritional Physiological Phenomena; Micronutrient; nitrogen; nutrient availability; nutrient use efficiency; phosphorus; quantitative trait loci (QTLs) |
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Improvements in understanding how climate change may influence chemical and physical processes in soils, how this may affect nutrient availability, and how plants may respond to changed availability of nutrients will influence crop breeding programmes. The effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer temperatures, both individually and combined, on soil microbial activity, including mycorrhizas and N-fixing organisms, are evaluated, together with their implications for nutrient availability. Potential changes to plant growth, and the combined effects of soil and plant changes on nutrient uptake, are discussed. The organization of research on the efficient use of macro- and micronutrients by crops under climate change conditions is outlined, including analysis of QTLs for nutrient efficiency. Suggestions for how the information gained can be used in plant breeding programmes are given. |
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1460-2431; 0022-0957 |
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Review |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4575 |
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Author |
Özkan, Ş.; Farquharson, R.J.; Hill, J.; Malcolm, B. |
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A stochastic analysis of the impact of input parameters on profit of Australian pasture-based dairy farms under variable carbon price scenarios |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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Environmental Science & Policy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environmental Science & Policy |
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48 |
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163-171 |
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Keywords |
carbon tax; operating profit; stochastic dominance; dairy; feeding system; mitigation; cows; systems; efficiency; risk |
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The imposition of a carbon tax in the economy will have indirect impacts on dairy farmers in Australia. Although there is a great deal of information available regarding mitigation strategies both in Australia and internationally, there seems to be a lack of research investigating the variable prices of carbon-based emissions on dairy farm operating profits in Australia. In this study, a stochastic analysis comparing the uncertainty in income in response to different prices on carbon-based emissions was conducted. The impact of variability in pasture consumption and variable prices of concentrates and hay on farm profitability was also investigated. The two different feeding systems examined were a ryegrass pasture-based system (RM) and a complementary forage-based system (CF). Imposing a carbon price ($20-$60) and not changing the systems reduced the farm operating profits by 28.4% and 25.6% in the RM and CF systems, respectively compared to a scenario where no carbon price was imposed. Different farming businesses will respond to variability in the rapidly changing operating environment such as fluctuations in pasture availability, price of purchased feeds and price of milk or carbon emissions differently. Further, in case there is a carbon price imposed for GHG emissions emanated from dairy farming systems, changing from pasture-based to more complex feeding systems incorporating home-grown double crops may reduce the reductions in farm operating profits. There is opportunity for future studies to focus on the impacts of different mitigation strategies and policy applications on farm operating profits. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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1462-9011 |
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LiveM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4574 |
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Author |
Dáder, B.; Plaza, M.; Fereres, A.; Moreno, A. |
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Title |
Flight behaviour of vegetable pests and their natural enemies under different ultraviolet-blocking enclosures |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Annals of Applied Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ann. Appl. Biol. |
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167 |
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1 |
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116-126 |
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agricultural pests; insect orientation; natural enemies; photoselective enclosures; uv light; aphidius-colemani; plastic films; myzus-persicae; insect pests; frankliniella-occidentalis; trialeurodes-vaporariorum; spectral efficiency; encarsia-formosa; protect crops; greenhouse |
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Ultraviolet (UV) radiation, particularly in the UV-A + B range (280-400 nm) is a fraction of the solar spectrum that regulates almost every aspect of insect behaviour, including orientation towards hosts, alighting, arrestment and feeding behaviour. To study the role of UV radiation on the flight activity of five insect species of agricultural importance (pests Myzus persicae, Bemisia tabaci and Tuta absoluta, and natural enemies Aphidius colemani and Sphaerophoria rueppellii), one-chamber tunnels were covered with six cladding materials with different light transmittance properties ranging from 2% to 83% UV and 54% to 85% photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Inside each tunnel, insects were released from tubes placed in a platform suspended from the ceiling. Specific targets varying with insect species were placed at different distances from the platform. Evaluation parameters were designed for each insect and tested separately. The ability of insects to leave the platform was assessed, as well as the number of captures, eggs or mummies in each target, either sticky traps or plants. Our results suggest differences in flight activity among insect species and UV-blocking nets. The UV-opaque film drastically prevented aphids, and whiteflies from flying outside the tubes whereas T. absoluta, syrphids and parasitoids were not affected. Aphid flight behaviour was affected by the UV-opaque film compared to the other nets, especially in the furthest target of the tunnel. Fewer aphids reached distant traps under UV-absorbing nets, and significantly more aphids could fly to the end of tunnels covered with non-UV-blocking materials. Orientation of B. tabaci and T. absoluta was also negatively affected by the UV-opaque film although in a different trend. Unlike aphids, differences in B. tabaci captures were mainly found in the closest targets. UV transmittance did not have any effects on parasitoids, and S. rueppellii, implying cues other than visual for these insects under our experimental conditions. Further effects of photoselective enclosures on greenhouse pests and their natural enemies are discussed. |
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0003-4746 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4555 |
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