Reidsma, P., Wolf, J., Kanellopoulos, A., Schaap, B. F., Mandryk, M., Verhagen, J., et al. (2015). Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands (Vol. 6).
Abstract: Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that 1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and 2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semi-quantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world. No Label
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Cammarano, D., Rivington, M., Matthews, K., B,, & Bellocchi, G. (2015). Estimates of crop responses to climate change with quantified ranges of uncertainty (Vol. 6).
Abstract: In estimating responses of crops to future climate realisations, it is necessary to understand and differentiate between the sources of uncertainty in climate models and how these lead to errors in estimating the past climate and biases in future projections, and how these affect crop model estimates. This paper investigates the complexities in using climate model projections representing different spatial scales within climate change impacts and adaptation studies. This is illustrated by simulating spring barley with three crop models run using site-specific observed, original (50•50 km) and bias corrected downscaled (site-specific) hindcast (1960-1990) weather data from the HadRM3 Regional Climate Model (RCM). Original and bias corrected downscaled weather data were evaluated against the observed data. The comparisons made between the crop models were in the light of lessons learned from this data evaluation. Though the bias correction downscaling method improved the match between observed and hindcast data, this did not always translate into better matching of crop models estimates. At four sites the original HadRM3 data produced near identical mean simulated yield values as from the observed weather data, despite differences in the weather data, giving a situation of ‘right results for the wrong reasons’. This was likely due to compensating errors in the input weather data and non-linearity in crop models processes, making interpretation of results problematic. Overall, bias correction downscaling improved the quality of simulated outputs. Understanding how biases in climate data manifest themselves in crop models gives greater confidence in the utility of the estimates produced using downscaled future climate projections. The results indicate implications on how future projections of climate change impacts are interpreted. Fundamentally, considerable care is required in determining the impact weather data sources have in climate change impact and adaptation studies, whether from individual models or ensembles. No Label
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Rivington, M., & Wallach, D. (2015). Communication strategy, including design of tools for more effective communication of uncertainty (Vol. 6).
Abstract: Communication is the key link between the generation of information by MACSUR about the uncertainty of climate change impacts on future food security and how information is used by decision makers. It is therefore important to make available the common tools for reporting uncertainty, with a discussion of the advantages or difficulties of each. That is the purpose of this report. No Label
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Wallach, D., & Rivington, M. (2015). Standardised methods and protocols based on current best practices to conduct sensitivity analysis (Vol. 6).
Abstract: The purpose of this report is to propose a general procedure for sensitivity analysis when used to evaluate system sensitivity to climate change, including uncertainty information. While sensitivity analysis has been largely used to evaluate how uncertainties in inputs or parameters propagate through the model and manifest themselves in uncertainties in model outputs, there is much less experience with sensitivity analysis as a tool for studying how sensitive a system is to changes in inputs. This report should help make clear the differences between these two uses of sensitivity analysis, and provide guidance as to the procedure for using sensitivity analysis for evaluating system sensitivity to climate change. No Label
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Wallach, D., & Rivington, M. (2015). Identification and quantification of differences between models (Vol. 6).
Abstract: A major goal of crop model inter-comparison is model improvement, and an important intermediate step toward that goal is understanding in some detail how models differ, and the consequences of those differences. This report is intended as a first attempt at describing possible techniques for relating differences between model outputs to specific aspects of the models. No Label
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