Records |
Author |
Stürck, J.; Levers, C.; van der Zanden, E.H.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Verkerk, P.J.; Kuemmerle, T.; Helming, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Tabeau, A.; Popp, A.; Schrammeijer, E.; Verburg, P. |
Title |
Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Regional Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Reg. Environ. Change |
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
in press |
Keywords |
land use change; land system; modeling; scenario; Europe; ecosystem services |
Abstract |
Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets. |
Address |
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
1436-3798 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4996 |
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
Author |
Ponti, L.; Gutierrez, A.P.; Ruti, P.M.; Dell’Aquila, A. |
Title |
Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Abbreviated Journal |
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
Volume |
111 |
Issue |
15 |
Pages |
5598-5603 |
Keywords |
Animals; *Biodiversity; *Climate Change; Conservation of Natural Resources/*trends; Crops, Agricultural/*economics/physiology; Geography; Host-Parasite Interactions; Mediterranean Region; Models, Biological; Models, Economic; Olea/*parasitology/*physiology; Tephritidae/*physiology; Olea europaea; desertification; ecological impacts; economic impacts; species interactions |
Abstract |
The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests. |
Address |
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
0027-8424 1091-6490 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4539 |
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
Author |
Kahiluoto, H.; Kaseva, J.; Balek, J.; Olesen, J.E.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Gobin, A.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Takac, J.; Ruget, F.; Ferrise, R.; Bezak, P.; Capellades, G.; Dibari, C.; Makinen, H.; Nendel, C.; Ventrella, D.; Rodriguez, A.; Bindi, M.; Trnka, M. |
Title |
Decline in climate resilience of European wheat |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Abbreviated Journal |
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
Volume |
116 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
123-128 |
Keywords |
wheat; cultivar; Europe; climate resilience; response diversity; Diversity; Weather; Growth; Shifts; Crops; Yield; Variability |
Abstract |
Food security relies on the resilience of staple food crops to climatic variability and extremes, but the climate resilience of European wheat is unknown. A diversity of responses to disturbance is considered a key determinant of resilience. The capacity of a sole crop genotype to perform well under climatic variability is limited; therefore, a set of cultivars with diverse responses to weather conditions critical to crop yield is required. Here, we show a decline in the response diversity of wheat in farmers’ fields in most European countries after 2002-2009 based on 101,000 cultivar yield observations. Similar responses to weather were identified in cultivar trials among central European countries and southern European countries. A response diversity hotspot appeared in the trials in Slovakia, while response diversity “deserts” were identified in Czechia and Germany and for durum wheat in southern Europe. Positive responses to abundant precipitation were lacking. This assessment suggests that current breeding programs and cultivar selection practices do not sufficiently prepare for climatic uncertainty and variability. Consequently, the demand for climate resilience of staple food crops such as wheat must be better articulated. Assessments and communication of response diversity enable collective learning across supply chains. Increased awareness could foster governance of resilience through research and breeding programs, incentives, and regulation. |
Address |
2019-01-17 |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
0027-8424 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5226 |
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
Author |
Dumont, B.; Leemans, V.; Ferrandis, S.; Bodson, B.; Destain, J.-P.; Destain, M.-F. |
Title |
Assessing the potential of an algorithm based on mean climatic data to predict wheat yield |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Precision Agriculture |
Abbreviated Journal |
Precision Agric. |
Volume |
15 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
255-272 |
Keywords |
stics model; yield prediction; real-time; proxy-sensing; stochastic weather generator; crop yield; mediterranean environment; simulation-model; variability; nitrogen; ensembles; forecasts; demeter; europe |
Abstract |
The real-time non-invasive determination of crop biomass and yield prediction is one of the major challenges in agriculture. An interesting approach lies in using process-based crop yield models in combination with real-time monitoring of the input climatic data of these models, but unknown future weather remains the main obstacle to reliable yield prediction. Since accurate weather forecasts can be made only a short time in advance, much information can be derived from analyzing past weather data. This paper presents a methodology that addresses the problem of unknown future weather by using a daily mean climatic database, based exclusively on available past measurements. It involves building climate matrix ensembles, combining different time ranges of projected mean climate data and real measured weather data originating from the historical database or from real-time measurements performed in the field. Used as an input for the STICS crop model, the datasets thus computed were used to perform statistical within-season biomass and yield prediction. This work demonstrated that a reliable predictive delay of 3-4 weeks could be obtained. In combination with a local micrometeorological station that monitors climate data in real-time, the approach also enabled us to (i) predict potential yield at the local level, (ii) detect stress occurrence and (iii) quantify yield loss (or gain) drawing on real monitored climatic conditions of the previous few days. |
Address |
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
1385-2256 1573-1618 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4621 |
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
Author |
Van Oosten, M.J.; Sharkhuu, A.; Batelli, G.; Bressan, R.A.; Maggio, A. |
Title |
The Arabidopsis thaliana mutant air1 implicates SOS3 in the regulation of anthocyanins under salt stress |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Plant Molecular Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Plant Mol. Biol. |
Volume |
83 |
Issue |
4-5 |
Pages |
405-415 |
Keywords |
Anthocyanins/analysis/*metabolism; Arabidopsis/drug effects/*genetics/physiology/radiation effects; Arabidopsis Proteins/*genetics/metabolism; Basic-Leucine Zipper Transcription Factors/*genetics/metabolism; Flavonoids/metabolism; *Gene Expression Regulation, Plant; Light; Mutagenesis, Insertional; Phenotype; Plant Roots/drug effects/genetics/physiology/radiation effects; Plant Shoots/drug effects/genetics/physiology/radiation effects; Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction; Sodium Chloride/pharmacology; Stress, Physiological |
Abstract |
The accumulation of anthocyanins in plants exposed to salt stress has been largely documented. However, the functional link and regulatory components underlying the biosynthesis of these molecules during exposure to stress are largely unknown. In a screen of second site suppressors of the salt overly sensitive3-1 (sos3-1) mutant, we isolated the anthocyanin-impaired-response-1 (air1) mutant. air1 is unable to accumulate anthocyanins under salt stress, a key phenotype of sos3-1 under high NaCl levels (120 mM). The air1 mutant showed a defect in anthocyanin production in response to salt stress but not to other stresses such as high light, low phosphorous, high temperature or drought stress. This specificity indicated that air1 mutation did not affect anthocyanin biosynthesis but rather its regulation in response to salt stress. Analysis of this mutant revealed a T-DNA insertion at the first exon of an Arabidopsis thaliana gene encoding for a basic region-leucine zipper transcription factor. air1 mutants displayed higher survival rates compared to wild-type in oxidative stress conditions, and presented an altered expression of anthocyanin biosynthetic genes such as F3H, F3’H and LDOX in salt stress conditions. The results presented here indicate that AIR1 is involved in the regulation of various steps of the flavonoid and anthocyanin accumulation pathways and is itself regulated by the salt-stress response signalling machinery. The discovery and characterization of AIR1 opens avenues to dissect the connections between abiotic stress and accumulation of antioxidants in the form of flavonoids and anthocyanins. |
Address |
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
0167-4412 1573-5028 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4616 |
Permanent link to this record |