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Author Kros, J.; Bakker, M.M.; Reidsma, P.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Jamal Alam, S.; de Vries, W. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Impacts of agricultural changes in response to climate and socioeconomic change on nitrogen deposition in nature reserves Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication (down) Landscape Ecology Abbreviated Journal Landscape Ecol.  
  Volume 30 Issue 5 Pages 871-885  
  Keywords Agricultural adaptation; Climate change; Land use change; Environmental; impact; Farming system; Nitrogen losses; netherlands; diversity; scenario  
  Abstract This paper describes the environmental consequences of agricultural adaptation on eutrophication of the nearby ecological network for a study area in the Netherlands. More specifically, we explored (i) likely responses of farmers to changes in climate, technology, policy, and markets; (ii) subsequent changes in nitrogen (N) emissions in responses to farmer adaptations; and (iii) to what extent the emitted N was deposited in nearby nature reserves, in view of the potential impacts on plant species diversity and desired nature targets. For this purpose, a spatially-explicit study at landscape level was performed by integrating the environmental model INITIATOR, the farm model FSSIM, and the land-use model RULEX. We evaluated two alternative scenarios of change in climate, technology, policy, and markets for 2050: one in line with a ‘global economy’ (GE) storyline and the other in line with a ‘regional communities’ (RC) storyline. Results show that the GE storyline resulted in a relatively strong increase in agricultural production compared to the RC storyline. Despite the projected conversions of agricultural land to nature (as part of the implementation of the National Ecological Network), we project an increase in N losses and N deposition due to N emissions in the study area of about 20 %. Even in the RC storyline, with a relatively modest increase in agricultural production and a larger expansion of the nature reserve, the N losses and deposition remain at the current level, whereas a reduction is required. We conclude that more ambitious green policies are needed in view of nature protection.  
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  Corporate Author Thesis  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0921-2973 1572-9761 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4565  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; van Ittersum, M.K. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment Type Journal Article
  Year 2012 Publication (down) Landscape Ecology Abbreviated Journal Landscape Ecol.  
  Volume 27 Issue 4 Pages 509-527  
  Keywords agriculture; adaptation; climate change; farm structural change; flevoland; agricultural land-use; future; policy; adaptation; diversification; vulnerability; productivity; consequences; variability; performance  
  Abstract Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However, adaptation to climate change must be considered in the context of other driving forces that will cause farms of the future to look differently from today’s farms. In this paper we use a historical analysis of the influence of different drivers on farm structure, complemented with literature and stakeholder consultations, to assess future structural change of farms in a region under different plausible futures. As climate change is one of the drivers considered, this study thus puts climate change impact and adaptation into the context of other drivers. The province of Flevoland in the north of The Netherlands was used as case study, with arable farming as the main activity. To account for the heterogeneity of farms and to indicate possible directions of farm structural change, a farm typology was developed. Trends in past developments in farm types were analyzed with data from the Dutch agricultural census. The historical analysis allowed to detect the relative importance of driving forces that contributed to farm structural changes. Simultaneously, scenario assumptions about changes in these driving forces elaborated at global and European levels, were downscaled for Flevoland, to regional and farm type level in order to project impacts of drivers on farm structural change towards 2050. Input from stakeholders was also used to detail the downscaled scenarios and to derive historical and future relationships between drivers and farm structural change. These downscaled scenarios and future driver-farm structural change relationships were used to derive quantitative estimations of farm structural change at regional and farm type level in Flevoland. In addition, stakeholder input was used to also derive images of future farms in Flevoland. The estimated farm structural changes differed substantially between the two scenarios. Our estimations of farm structural change provide a proper context for assessing impacts of and adaptation to climate change in 2050 at crop and farm level.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0921-2973 1572-9761 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4477  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Cortignani, R.; Dono, G. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Simulation of the impact of greening measures in an agricultural area of the southern Italy Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication (down) Land Use Policy Abbreviated Journal Land Use Policy  
  Volume 48 Issue Pages 525-533  
  Keywords agricultural policy; supply analysis; mathematical programming; maximum-entropy; level; models  
  Abstract Together, sustainable management of natural resources and climate action form one of the three objectives of the 2014-2020 Common Agricultural Policy. This objective is being addressed by replacing the existing direct payments under Pillar 1 with a basic payment, combined with an additional payment conditional on farmers undertaking agricultural practices beneficial for the climate and the environment, a policy referred to as greening. In this study, the impact of greening was assessed using a hybrid model calibrated using positive mathematical programming. The model describes the macro-types of farm production in a Mediterranean agricultural area. The results show that greening was not beneficial throughout the study area and only some farm types have been particularly affected. However, greening appears to have a positive impact on curtailing the use of chemicals, particularly nitrogen, and on crop diversity. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0264-8377 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4746  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Zimmermann, A.; Britz, W. url  doi
openurl 
  Title European farms’ participation in agri-environmental measures Type Journal Article
  Year 2016 Publication (down) Land Use Policy Abbreviated Journal Land Use Policy  
  Volume 50 Issue Pages 214-228  
  Keywords agri-environmental; CAP; farm; EU; estimation; protection scheme; conservation; programs; willingness; policy; perspective; adoption; ireland  
  Abstract Due to their diversity and voluntariness, agri-environmental measures (AEMs) are among the Common Agricultural Policy instruments that are most difficult to assess. We provide an EU-wide analysis of AEM adoption and farm’s total AEM support over total Utilised Agricultural Area using a Heckman sample selection approach and single farm data. Our analysis covers 22 Member States over the 2000-2009 period, assesses the entire portfolio of AEMs and focuses on the relationship between AEM participation and farming system. Results show that participation in AEMs is more likely in less intensive production systems, where, however, per committed hectare AEM premiums tend to be lower. Member States group into three categories: high/low intensity farming systems with low/high AEM enrollment rates, respectively, and large high diversity countries with medium AEM enrollment rates. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0264-8377 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4711  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Mitter, H.; Heumesser, C.; Schmid, E. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Spatial modeling of robust crop production portfolios to assess agricultural vulnerability and adaptation to climate change Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication (down) Land Use Policy Abbreviated Journal Land Use Policy  
  Volume 46 Issue Pages 75-90  
  Keywords climate change impact; adaptation; agricultural vulnerability; portfolio optimization; agricultural policy; agri-environmental payment; adaptive capacity; change impacts; risk-aversion; land-use; ecosystem services; change scenarios; europe; policy; future; water  
  Abstract Agricultural vulnerability to climate change is likely to vary considerably between agro-environmental regions. Exemplified on Austrian cropland, we aim at (i) quantifying climate change impacts on agricultural vulnerability which is approximated by the indicators crop yields and gross margins, (ii) developing robust crop production portfolios for adaptation, and (iii) analyzing the effect of agricultural policies and risk aversion on the choice of crop production portfolios. We have employed a spatially explicit, integrated framework to assess agricultural vulnerability and adaptation. It combines a statistical climate change model for Austria and the period 2010-2040, a crop rotation model, the bio-physical process model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), and a portfolio optimization model. We find that under climate change, crop production portfolios include higher shares of intensive crop management practices, increasing average crop yields by 2-15% and expected gross margins by 3-18%, respectively. The results depend on the choice of adaptation measures and on the level of risk aversion and vary by region. In the semi-arid eastern parts of Austria, average dry matter crop yields are lower but gross margins are higher than in western Austria due to bio-physical and agronomic heterogeneities. An abolishment of decoupled farm payments and a threefold increase in agri-environmental premiums would reduce nitrogen inputs by 23-33%, but also crop yields and gross margins by 18-37%, on average. From a policy perspective, a twofold increase in agri-environmental premiums could effectively reduce the trade-offs between crop production and environmental impacts. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0264-8377 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4675  
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