| Records |
| Author |
Salo, T.J.; Palosuo, T.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C.; Angulo, C.; Ewert, F.; Bindi, M.; Calanca, P.; Klein, T.; Moriondo, M.; Ferrise, R.; Olesen, J.E.; Patil, R.H.; Ruget, F.; Takáč, J.; Hlavinka, P.; Trnka, M.; Rötter, R.P. |
| Title |
Comparing the performance of 11 crop simulation models in predicting yield response to nitrogen fertilization |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication  |
Journal of Agricultural Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Agric. Sci. |
| Volume |
154 |
Issue |
7 |
Pages |
1218-1240 |
| Keywords |
northern growing conditions; climate-change impacts; spring barley; systems simulation; farming systems; soil properties; winter-wheat; dynamics; growth; management |
| Abstract |
Eleven widely used crop simulation models (APSIM, CERES, CROPSYST, COUP, DAISY, EPIC, FASSET, HERMES, MONICA, STICS and WOFOST) were tested using spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) data set under varying nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates from three experimental years in the boreal climate of Jokioinen, Finland. This is the largest standardized crop model inter-comparison under different levels of N supply to date. The models were calibrated using data from 2002 and 2008, of which 2008 included six N rates ranging from 0 to 150 kg N/ha. Calibration data consisted of weather, soil, phenology, leaf area index (LAI) and yield observations. The models were then tested against new data for 2009 and their performance was assessed and compared with both the two calibration years and the test year. For the calibration period, root mean square error between measurements and simulated grain dry matter yields ranged from 170 to 870 kg/ha. During the test year 2009, most models failed to accurately reproduce the observed low yield without N fertilizer as well as the steep yield response to N applications. The multi-model predictions were closer to observations than most single-model predictions, but multi-model mean could not correct systematic errors in model simulations. Variation in soil N mineralization and LAI development due to differences in weather not captured by the models most likely was the main reason for their unsatisfactory performance. This suggests the need for model improvement in soil N mineralization as a function of soil temperature and moisture. Furthermore, specific weather event impacts such as low temperatures after emergence in 2009, tending to enhance tillering, and a high precipitation event just before harvest in 2008, causing possible yield penalties, were not captured by any of the models compared in the current study. |
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English |
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| ISSN |
0021-8596 1469-5146 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4713 |
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| Author |
Eitzinger, J.; Thaler, S.; Schmid, E.; Strauss, F.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Rotter, R.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Patil, R.H.; Saylan, L.; Caldag, B.; Caylak, O. |
| Title |
Sensitivities of crop models to extreme weather conditions during flowering period demonstrated for maize and winter wheat in Austria |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Journal of Agricultural Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Agric. Sci. |
| Volume |
151 |
Issue |
6 |
Pages |
813-835 |
| Keywords |
simulate yield response; climate-change scenarios; central-europe; nitrogen dynamics; high-temperature; future climate; elevated co2; soil; growth; variability |
| Abstract |
The objective of the present study was to compare the performance of seven different, widely applied crop models in predicting heat and drought stress effects. The study was part of a recent suite of model inter-comparisons initiated at European level and constitutes a component that has been lacking in the analysis of sources of uncertainties in crop models used to study the impacts of climate change. There was a specific focus on the sensitivity of models for winter wheat and maize to extreme weather conditions (heat and drought) during the short but critical period of 2 weeks after the start of flowering. Two locations in Austria, representing different agro-climatic zones and soil conditions, were included in the simulations over 2 years, 2003 and 2004, exhibiting contrasting weather conditions. In addition, soil management was modified at both sites by following either ploughing or minimum tillage. Since no comprehensive field experimental data sets were available, a relative comparison of simulated grain yields and soil moisture contents under defined weather scenarios with modified temperatures and precipitation was performed for a 2-week period after flowering. The results may help to reduce the uncertainty of simulated crop yields to extreme weather conditions through better understanding of the models’ behaviour. Although the crop models considered (DSSAT, EPIC, WOFOST, AQUACROP, FASSET, HERMES and CROPSYST) mostly showed similar trends in simulated grain yields for the different weather scenarios, it was obvious that heat and drought stress caused by changes in temperature and/or precipitation for a short period of 2 weeks resulted in different grain yields simulated by different models. The present study also revealed that the models responded differently to changes in soil tillage practices, which affected soil water storage capacity. |
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0021-8596 |
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CropM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4601 |
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| Author |
Martre, P.; Wallach, D.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Jones, J.W.; Rötter, R.P.; Boote, K.J.; Ruane, A.C.; Thorburn, P.J.; Cammarano, D.; Hatfield, J.L.; Rosenzweig, C.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Basso, B.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Brisson, N.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.F.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Müller, C.; Kumar, S.N.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; White, J.W.; Wolf, J. |
| Title |
Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
| Volume |
21 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
911-925 |
| Keywords |
Climate; Climate Change; Environment; *Models, Biological; Seasons; Triticum/*growth & development; ecophysiological model; ensemble modeling; model intercomparison; process-based model; uncertainty; wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) |
| Abstract |
Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models. |
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English |
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1354-1013 |
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Article |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4665 |
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Fleisher, D.H.; Condori, B.; Quiroz, R.; Alva, A.; Asseng, S.; Barreda, C.; Bindi, M.; Boote, K.J.; Ferrise, R.; Franke, A.C.; Govindakrishnan, P.M.; Harahagazwe, D.; Hoogenboom, G.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Merante, P.; Nendel, C.; Olesen, J.E.; Parker, P.S.; Raes, D.; Raymundo, R.; Ruane, A.C.; Stockle, C.; Supit, I.; Vanuytrecht, E.; Wolf, J.; Woli, P. |
| Title |
A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
| Volume |
23 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
1258-1281 |
| Keywords |
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| Abstract |
A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach. |
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1354-1013 |
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article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4968 |
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Olesen, J.E.; Børgesen, C.D.; Elsgaard, L.; Palosuo, T.; Rötter, R.P.; Skjelvåg, A.O.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Börjesson, T.; Trnka, M.; Ewert, F.; Siebert, S.; Brisson, N.; Eitzinger, J.; van Asselt, E.D.; Oberforster, M.; van der Fels-Klerx, H.J. |
| Title |
Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A |
Abbreviated Journal |
Food Addit. Contam. Part A |
| Volume |
29 |
Issue |
10 |
Pages |
1527-1542 |
| Keywords |
Agriculture/*methods/trends; Avena/growth & development; *Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural/*growth & development; Edible Grain/*growth & development; Europe; Flowering Tops/growth & development; Forecasting/methods; Germination; Humans; Models, Biological; Models, Statistical; Seasons; Seeds/growth & development; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Triticum/growth & development; Zea mays/growth & development |
| Abstract |
The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing, flowering, and maturity of wheat, oats and maize were collected from field experiments conducted during the period 1985-2009. Data for spring wheat and spring oats covered latitudes from 46 to 64°N, winter wheat from 46 to 61°N, and maize from 47 to 58°N. The number of observations (site-year-variety combinations) varied with phenological phase, but exceeded 2190, 227, 2076 and 1506 for winter wheat, spring wheat, spring oats and maize, respectively. The data were used to fit simple crop development models, assuming that the duration of the period until flowering depends on temperature and day length for wheat and oats, and on temperature for maize, and that the duration of the period from flowering to maturity in all species depends on temperature only. Species-specific base temperatures were used. Sowing date of spring cereals was estimated using a threshold temperature for the mean air temperature during 10 days prior to sowing. The mean estimated temperature thresholds for sowing were 6.1, 7.1 and 10.1°C for oats, wheat and maize, respectively. For spring oats and wheat the temperature threshold increased with latitude. The effective temperature sums required for both flowering and maturity increased with increasing mean annual temperature of the location, indicating that varieties are well adapted to given conditions. The responses of wheat and oats were largest for the period from flowering to maturity. Changes in timing of cereal phenology by 2040 were assessed for two climate model projections according to the observed dependencies on temperature and day length. The results showed advancements of sowing date of spring cereals by 1-3 weeks depending on climate model and region within Europe. The changes were largest in Northern Europe. Timing of flowering and maturity were projected to advance by 1-3 weeks. The changes were largest for grain maize and smallest for winter wheat, and they were generally largest in the western and northern part of the domain. There were considerable differences in predicted timing of sowing, flowering and maturity between the two climate model projections applied. |
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1944-0049 1944-0057 |
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CropM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4590 |
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