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Author Weindl, I.; Popp, A.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Biewald, A.; Humpenoeder, F.; Dietrich, J.P.; Stevanovic, M. doi  openurl
  Title Livestock and human use of land: Productivity trends and dietary choices as drivers of future land and carbon dynamics Type Journal Article
  Year 2017 Publication (down) Global and Planetary Change Abbreviated Journal Global And Planetary Change  
  Volume 159 Issue Pages 1-10  
  Keywords Livestock productivity; Diets; Land use; Deforestation; Carbon emissions; Greenhouse gas mitigation; Greenhouse-Gas Emissions; Climate-Change Mitigation; Food-Demand; Crop; Productivity; Cover Change; Systems; Agriculture; Intensification; Environment; Deforestation  
  Abstract Land use change has been the primary driving force of human alteration of terrestrial ecosystems. With 80% of agricultural land dedicated to livestock production, the sector is an important lever to attenuate land requirements for food production and carbon emissions from land use change. In this study, we quantify impacts of changing human diets and livestock productivity on land dynamics and depletion of carbon stored in vegetation, litter and soils. Across all investigated productivity pathways, lower consumption of livestock products can substantially reduce deforestation (47-55%) and cumulative carbon losses (34-57%). On the supply side, already minor productivity growth in extensive livestock production systems leads to substantial CO2 emission abatement, but the emission saving potential of productivity gains in intensive systems is limited, also involving trade-offs with soil carbon stocks. If accounting for uncertainties related to future trade restrictions, crop yields and pasture productivity, the range of projected carbon savings from changing diets increases to 23-78%. Highest abatement of carbon emissions (63-78%) can be achieved if reduced consumption of animal-based products is combined with sustained investments into productivity increases in plant production. Our analysis emphasizes the importance to integrate demand- and supply-side oriented mitigation strategies and to combine efforts in the crop and livestock sector to enable synergies for climate protection.  
  Address 2018-01-25  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0921-8181 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5188  
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Author Dono, G.; Raffaele, C.; Luca, G.; Roggero, P.P. openurl 
  Title Income Impacts of Climate Change: Irrigated Farming in the Mediterranean and Expected Changes in Probability of Favorable and Adverse Weather Conditions Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication (down) German Journal of Agricultural Economics Abbreviated Journal German Journal of Agricultural Economics  
  Volume 63 Issue 3 Pages 177-186  
  Keywords discrete stochastic programming; rdp measures to adapt to climate change; economic impact of climate change; irrigated agriculture and climate change; insurance tools for adaptation to climate change; water markets; risk; variability; management; systems  
  Abstract EU rural development policy (RDP) regulation 1305/2013 aims to protect farmers’ incomes from ongoing change of climate variability (CCV), and the increase in frequency of adverse climatic events. An income stabilization tool (IST) is provided to compensate drastic drops in income, including those caused by climatic events. The present study examines some aspect of its application focussing on Mediterranean irrigation area where frequent water shortages may generate significant income reductions in the current climate conditions, and may be further exacerbated by climate change. This enhanced loss of income in the future would occur due to a change in climate variability. This change would appreciably reduce the probability of weather conditions that are favourable for irrigation, but would not significantly increase either the probability of unfavourable weather conditions or the magnitude of their impact. As the IST and other insurance tools that protect against adversity and catastrophic events are only activated under extreme conditions, farmers may not consider them to be suitable in dealing with the new climate regime. This would leave a portion of the financial resources allocated by the RDP unused, resulting in less support for climate change adaptation.  
  Address  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0002-1121 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4669  
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Author Schönhart, M.; Mitter, H.; Schmid, E.; Heinrich, G.; Gobiet, A. openurl 
  Title Integrated analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation measures in Austrian agriculture Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication (down) German Journal of Agricultural Economics Abbreviated Journal German Journal of Agricultural Economics  
  Volume 63 Issue 3 Pages 156-176  
  Keywords land use; modelling; climate change impact; adaptation; integrated analysis; epic; pasma; crop production; land-use; management-practices; model projections; central-europe; soil-erosion; water; variability; strategies; region  
  Abstract An integrated modelling framework (IMF) has been developed and applied to analyse climate change impacts and the effectiveness of adaptation measures in Austrian agriculture. The IMF couples the crop rotation model CropRota, the bio-physical process model EPIC and the bottom-up economic land use model PASMA at regional level (NUTS-3) considering agri-environmental indicators. Four contrasting regional climate model (RCM) simulations represent climate change until 2050. The RCM simulations are applied to a baseline and three adaptation and policy scenarios. Climate change increases crop productivity on national average in the IMF. Changes in average gross margins at national level range from 0% to + 5% between the baseline and the three adaptation and policy scenarios. The impacts at NUTS-3 level range from -5% to + 7% between the baseline and the three adaptation and policy scenarios. Adaptation measures such as planting of winter cover crops, reduced tillage and irrigation are effective in reducing yield losses, increasing revenues, or in improving environmental states under climate change. Future research should account for extreme weather events in order to analyse whether average productivity gains at the aggregated level suffice to cover costs from expected higher climate variability.  
  Address  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0002-1121 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4652  
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Author Elliott, J.; Müller, C.; Deryng, D.; Chryssanthacopoulos, J.; Boote, K.J.; Büchner, M.; Foster, I.; Glotter, M.; Heinke, J.; Iizumi, T.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Mueller, N.D.; Ray, D.K.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Sheffield, J. url  doi
openurl 
  Title The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison: data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0) Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication (down) Geoscientific Model Development Abbreviated Journal Geosci. Model Dev.  
  Volume 8 Issue 2 Pages 261-277  
  Keywords land-surface model; climate-change; systems simulation; high-resolution; water; carbon; yield; agriculture; patterns; growth  
  Abstract We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The project includes global simulations of yields, phenologies, and many land-surface fluxes using 12-15 modeling groups for many crops, climate forcing data sets, and scenarios over the historical period from 1948 to 2012. The primary outcomes of the project include (1) a detailed comparison of the major differences and similarities among global models commonly used for large-scale climate impact assessment, (2) an evaluation of model and ensemble hindcasting skill, (3) quantification of key uncertainties from climate input data, model choice, and other sources, and (4) a multi-model analysis of the agricultural impacts of large-scale climate extremes from the historical record.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1991-9603 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4559  
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Author Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P. doi  openurl
  Title Designing high-yielding wheat ideotypes for a changing climate Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication (down) Food and Energy Security Abbreviated Journal Food Energy Secur.  
  Volume 2 Issue 3 Pages 185-196  
  Keywords Climate change impacts; crop modeling; LARS-WG; Sirius; wheat  
  Abstract Global warming is characterized by shifts in weather patterns and increases in climatic variability and extreme events. New wheat cultivars will be required for a rapidly changing environment, putting severe pressure on breeders who must select for climate conditions which can only be predicted with a great degree of uncertainty. To assist breeders to identify key wheat traits for improvements under climate change, wheat ideotypes can be designed and tested in silico using a wheat simulation model for a wide range of future climate scenarios predicted by global climate models. A wheat ideotype is represented by a set of cultivar parameters in a model, which could be optimized for best wheat performance under projected climate change. As an example, high-yielding wheat ideotypes were designed at two contrasting European sites for the 2050 (A1B) climate scenario. Simulations showed that wheat yield potential can be substantially increased for new ideotypes compared with current wheat varieties under climate change. The main factors contributing to yield increase were improvement in light conversion efficiency, extended duration of grain filling resulting in a higher harvest index, and optimal phenology.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2048-3694 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4505  
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