Records |
Author |
Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W. |
Title |
A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Geoscientific Model Development |
Abbreviated Journal |
Geosci. Model Dev. |
Volume |
6 |
Issue |
5 |
Pages |
1689-1703 |
Keywords |
dangerous anthropogenic interference; vegetation model; carbon-cycle; emissions; targets |
Abstract |
In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (Delta T-glob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of Delta T-glob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of Delta T-glob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs’ climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between Delta T-glob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations. |
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ISSN |
1991-9603 |
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CropM |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4490 |
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Author |
Sakschewski, B.; von Bloh, W.; Huber, V.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A. |
Title |
Feeding 10 billion people under climate change: How large is the production gap of current agricultural systems |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Ecological Modelling |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Model. |
Volume |
288 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
103-111 |
Keywords |
Population growth; Food production; Dynamic global vegetation model; Climate change; LPJmL; stomatal conductance; population-growth; food-production; co2; enrichment; model; photosynthesis; scenarios; leaves; plants; yield |
Abstract |
The human population is projected to reach more than 10 billion in the year 2100. Together with changing consumption pattern, population growth will lead to increasing food demand. The question arises whether or not the Earth is capable of fulfilling this demand. In this study, we approach this question by estimating the carrying capacity of current agricultural systems (K-C), which does not measure the maximum number of people the Earth is likely to feed in the future, but rather allows for an indirect assessment of the increases in agricultural productivity required to meet demands. We project agricultural food production under progressing climate change using the state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL, and input data of 3 climate models. For 1990 to 2100 the worldwide annual caloric yield of the most important 11 crop types is simulated. Model runs with and without elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are performed in order to investigate CO2 fertilization effects. Country-specific per-capita caloric demands fixed at current levels and changing demands based on future GDP projections are considered to assess the role of future dietary shifts. Our results indicate that current population projections may considerably exceed the maximum number of people that can be fed globally if climate change is not accompanied by significant changes in land use, agricultural efficiencies and/or consumption pathways. We estimate the gap between projected population size and K-C to reach 2 to 6.8 billion people by 2100. We also present possible caloric self-supply changes between 2000 and 2100 for all countries included in this study. The results show that predominantly developing countries in tropical and subtropical regions will experience vast decreases of self-supply. Therefore, this study is important for planning future large-scale agricultural management, as well as the critical assessment of population projections, which should take food-mediated climate change feedbacks into account |
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2016-10-31 |
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ISSN |
0304-3800 |
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CropM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4806 |
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Author |
Biewald, A.; Rolinski, S.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schmitz, C.; Dietrich, J.P. |
Title |
Valuing the impact of trade on local blue water |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Ecological Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Econ. |
Volume |
101 |
Issue |
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Pages |
43-53 |
Keywords |
virtual water; blue and green water; water scarcity; agricultural trade; global vegetation model; virtual water; crop trade; resources; scarcity; food; footprints; products; flows; green |
Abstract |
International trade of agricultural goods impacts local water scarcity. By quantifying the effect of trade on crop production on grid-cell level and combining it with cell- and crop-specific virtual water contents, we are able to determine green and blue water consumption and savings. Connecting the information on trade-related blue water usage to water shadow prices gives us the possibility to value the impact of international food crop trade on local blue water resources. To determine the trade-related value of the blue water usage, we employ two models: first, an economic land- and water-use model, simulating agricultural trade, production and water-shadow prices and second, a global vegetation and agricultural model, modeling the blue and green virtual water content of the traded crops. Our study found that globally, the international trade of food crops saves blue water worth 2.4 billion US$. This net saving occurs despite the fact that Europe exports virtual blue water in food crops worth 3.1 billion US$. Countries in the Middle East and South Asia profit from trade by importing water intensive crops, countries in Southern Europe on the other hand export water intensive agricultural goods from water scarce sites, deteriorating local water scarcity. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0921-8009 |
ISBN |
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Notes |
CropM, TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4512 |
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Author |
Lindeskog, M.; Arneth, A.; Bondeau, A.; Waha, K.; Seaquist, J.; Olin, S.; Smith, B. |
Title |
Implications of accounting for land use in simulations of ecosystem carbon cycling in Africa |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Earth System Dynamics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Earth System Dynamics |
Volume |
4 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
385-407 |
Keywords |
global vegetation model; sub-saharan africa; climate-change; yield gaps; co2; balance; dynamics; atmosphere; cover; variability |
Abstract |
Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are important tools for modelling impacts of global change on ecosystem services. However, most models do not take full account of human land management and land use and land cover changes (LULCCs). We integrated croplands and pasture and their management and natural vegetation recovery and succession following cropland abandonment into the LPJ-GUESS DGVM. The revised model was applied to Africa as a case study to investigate the implications of accounting for land use on net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) and the skill of the model in describing agricultural production and reproducing trends and patterns in vegetation structure and function. The seasonality of modelled monthly fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) was shown to agree well with satellite-inferred normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI). In regions with a large proportion of cropland, the managed land addition improved the FPAR vs. NDVI fit significantly. Modelled 1991-1995 average yields for the seven most important African crops, representing potential optimal yields limited only by climate forcings, were generally higher than reported FAO yields by a factor of 2-6, similar to previous yield gap estimates. Modelled inter-annual yield variations during 1971-2005 generally agreed well with FAO statistics, especially in regions with pronounced climate seasonality. Modelled land-atmosphere carbon fluxes for Africa associated with land use change (0.07 PgC yr(-1) release to the atmosphere for the 1980s) agreed well with previous estimates. Cropland management options (residue removal, grass as cover crop) were shown to be important to the land-atmosphere carbon flux for the 20th century. |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2190-4979 |
ISBN |
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Article |
Area |
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Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4494 |
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Author |
Dass, P.; Müller, C.; Brovkin, V.; Cramer, W. |
Title |
Can bioenergy cropping compensate high carbon emissions from large-scale deforestation of high latitudes |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Earth System Dynamics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Earth System Dynamics |
Volume |
4 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
409-424 |
Keywords |
land-use change; global vegetation model; soil carbon; climate-change; surface albedo; cover changes; snow cover; remind-r; forest; productivity |
Abstract |
Numerous studies have concluded that deforestation of the high latitudes result in a global cooling. This is mainly because of the increased albedo of deforested land which dominates over other biogeophysical and biogeochemical mechanisms in the energy balance. This dominance, however, may be due to an underestimation of the biogeochemical response, as carbon emissions are typically at or below the lower end of estimates. Here, we use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL for a better estimate of the carbon cycle under such large-scale deforestation. These studies are purely theoretical in order to understand the role of vegetation in the energy balance and the earth system. They must not be mistaken as possible mitigation options, because of the devastating effects on pristine ecosystems. For realistic assumptions of land suitability, the total emissions computed in this study are higher than that of previous studies assessing the effects of boreal deforestation. The warming due to biogeochemical effects ranges from 0.12 to 0.32 degrees C, depending on the climate sensitivity. Using LPJmL to assess the mitigation potential of bioenergy plantations in the suitable areas of the deforested region, we find that the global biophysical bioenergy potential is 68.1 +/- 5.6 EJ yr(-1) of primary energy at the end of the 21st century in the most plausible scenario. The avoided combustion of fossil fuels over the time frame of this experiment would lead to further cooling. However, since the carbon debt caused by the cumulative emissions is not repaid by the end of the 21st century, the global temperatures would increase by 0.04 to 0.11 degrees C. The carbon dynamics in the high latitudes especially with respect to permafrost dynamics and long-term carbon losses, require additional attention in the role for the Earth’s carbon and energy budget. |
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ISSN |
2190-4987 |
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CropM |
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no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4486 |
Permanent link to this record |