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Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Pasqui, M.; Primicerio, J.; Toscano, P.; Semenov, M.; Bindi, M. |
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Within-season predictions of durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin |
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2014 |
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Crop yield is the result of the interactions between weather in the incoming season and how farmers decide to manage and protect their crops. According to Jones et al. (2000), uncertainties in the weather of the forthcoming season leads farmers to lose some productivity by taking management decisions based on their own experience of the climate or by adopting conservative strategies aimed at reducing the risks. Accordingly, predicting crop yield in advance, in response to different managements, environments and weathers would assist farm-management decisions(Lawless and Semenov, 2005). Following the approach described by Semenov and Doblas-Reyes (2007), this study aimed at assessing the utility of different seasonal forecasting methodologies in predicting durum wheat yield at 10 different sites across the Mediterranean Basin. The crop model, SiriusQuality (Martre et al., 2006), was used to compute wheat yield over a 10-years period. First, the model was run with a set of observed weather data to calculate the reference yield distributions. Then, starting from 1st January, yield predictions were produced at a monthly time-step using seasonal forecasts. The results were compared with the reference yields to assess the efficacy of the forecasting methodologies to estimate within-season yields. The results indicate that durum wheat phenology and yield can be accurately predicted under Mediterranean conditions well before crop maturity, although some differences between the sites and the forecasting methodologies were revealed. Useful information can be thus provided for helping farmers to reduce negative impacts or take advantage from favorable conditions. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5142 |
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Roggero, P.P. |
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Oristano, Sardinia, Italy: Winners and losers from climate change in agriculture: a case study in the Mediterranean basin |
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2015 |
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6 |
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Sp6-7 |
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CropM |
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Focus questions • How to support effective adaptive responses to CC and stimulate proactive attitudes of farmers, policymakers & researchers? • How to co-construct the nature of the issues about CC adaptation? The «Oristanese» case study • Very diversified agricultural district in a Mediterranean context o Irrigated and rainfed farming systems o Variety of cropping systems, intensity levels, farm size • Multiple stakeholders o Cooperative agro-food system o Producers’ organizations (rice, horticulture) o Variety of extensive pastoral systems Emerging outcome • The dairy cattle coop is developing a new win-win pathway linking hi-input dairy cattle farming with low input beef cattle grazing systems • The local government is investing in the EIP for supporting the local beef production chain to reduce meat imports and enhance pasture biodiversity and ecosystem services (eg wildfire prevention) Emerging challenges Adaptive responses as co-evolution pathways • design social learning spaces for researchers, stakeholders and policy makers • combining integrated assessment modeling and social learning facilitation |
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Brussels |
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Climate-change impacts on farming systems in the next decades — why worry when you have CAP? A FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers, 2015-05-06 to 2015-05-06, Brussels |
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2750 |
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Cammarano, D.; Rötter, P.; Ewert, F.; Palosuo, T.; Bindi, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Trnka, M.; van Ittersum, M.K.; Janssen, S.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Angulo, C.; Gaiser, T.; Nendel, C.; Martre, P.; de Wit, A. |
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Challenges for Agro-Ecosystem Modelling in Climate Change Risk Assessment for major European Crops and Farming systems |
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2013 |
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555-564 |
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Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects, Potsdam, Germany, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-30 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2765 |
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Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch P |
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ELPIS: delivering local-scale climate scenarios for impact assessments. Impacts World 2013 |
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2013 |
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Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects, Potsdam, Germany, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-30 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2817 |
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Shrestha, S.; Ahmadi, B.V.; Thomson, S.A.; Barnes, A. |
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Scottish beef and sheep farms – will they be affected under greening of the CAP |
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2013 |
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LiveM |
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133rd EAAE seminar Developing Integrated and Reliable Modeling Tools for Agricultural and Environmental Policy Analysis, Crete, Greece, 2013-06-15 to 2013-06-16 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2833 |
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