| Records |
| Author |
Sanna, M.; Acutis, M.; Bellocchi, G. |
| Title |
Interrelationship between evaluation metrics to assess agro-ecological models |
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Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
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When evaluating the performances of simulation models, the perception of the quality of the outputs may depend on the statistics used to compare simulated and observed data. In order to have a comprehensive understanding of model performance, the use of a variety of metrics is generally advocated. However, since they may be correlated, the use of two or more metrics may convey the same information, leading to redundancy. This study intends to investigate the interrelationship between evaluation metrics, with the aim of identifying the most useful set of indicators, for assessing simulation performance. Our focus is on agro-ecological modelling. Twenty-three performance indicators were selected to compare simulated and observed data of four agronomic and meteorological variables: above-ground biomass, leaf area index, hourly air relative humidity and daily solar radiation. Indicators were calculated on large data sets, collected to effectively apply correlation analysis techniques. For each variable, the interrelationship between each pair of indicators was evaluated, by computing the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. A definition of “stable correlation” was proposed, based on the test of heterogeneity, allowing to assess whether two or more correlation coefficients are equal. An optimal subset of indicators was identified, striking a balance between number of indicators, amount of provided information and information redundancy. They are: Index of Agreement, Squared Bias, Root Mean Squared Relative Error, Pattern Index, Persistence Model Efficiency and Spearman’s Correlation Coefficient. The present study was carried out in the context of CropM-LiveM cross-cutting activities of MACSUR knowledge hub. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5092 |
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| Author |
Camacho, C.; Perez-Barahona, A. |
| Title |
Land use dynamics and the environment |
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Conference Article |
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2014 |
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This paper builds a benchmark framework to study optimal land use, encompassing land use activities and environmental degradation. We focus on the spatial externalities of land use as drivers of spatial patterns: land is immobile by nature, but location’s actions affect the whole space since pollution flows across locations resulting in both local and global damages. We prove that the decision maker problem has a solution, and characterize the corresponding social optimum trajectories by means of the Pontryagin conditions. We also show that the existence and uniqueness of steady-state solutions are not straightforward. Finally, a global dynamic algorithm is proposed in order to illustrate the spatial-dynamic richness of the model. We find that our simple set-up already reproduces a great variety of spatial patterns related to the interaction between land use activities and the environment. In particular, abatement technology turns out to play a central role as pollution stabilizer, allowing the economy to achieve stable steady-states that are spatially heterogeneous. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5093 |
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| Author |
Schneider, U. |
| Title |
Land use science in the 21st century |
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Conference Article |
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2014 |
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Political, technical, environmental, and scientific developments in the last decades have affected the aims and scope of modern land use research. Attention has shifted from a relatively narrow analysis of food and non-food production to more comprehensive studies of land based ecosystem services. A growing number of integrated assessments attempt to guide the future development of agricultural lands, managed forests, and terrestrial ecosystems in the coming decades towards efficiency and sustainability. The increasing links between distinct disciplines create many scientific opportunities but also new challenges. This talk will provide a brief summary of past achievements in integrated land use modeling and outline strategies for future development. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5094 |
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| Author |
Kipling, R.P.; Scollan, N.G. |
| Title |
Livestock production and the feed challenge |
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Conference Article |
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2014 |
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It is predicted that world population will reach nine billion by 2050 (Godfray et al., 2010) with the biggest increases occurring in the developing world (Guyomard et al., 2013, Thornton, 2010). This growth is expected to dramatically increase the demand for meat and animal products (Tilman et al., 2002) with a requirement by 2050 for 73 % more meat and 58 % more milk than produced in 2010 (FAO, 2011). In order to meet this growing demand, the supply of livestock products must rise to an extent comparable with that of the ‘Green Revolution’ (Tilman et al., 2002). This must occur in the context of serious global challenges related to climate change, resource availability, inequality, and biodiversity loss. At present many European livestock production systems are heavily reliant on a small number of feed products to provide protein, with imported soya accounting for 55 % of the 2.6 million tonnes of plant-derived protein fed to animals in the UK. This reliance on a small number of imported products leaves supply vulnerable to economic and climatic change. There is increased research into alternatives to South American soybean in the European feed supply chain, including improving the nutritional and agronomic characteristics of such alternatives, and exploring the use of new sources of potential feed material. This presents an opportunity for collaboration between experimental researchers and modellers to investigate the potential impacts of alternative feeds on livestock system productivity, robustness to climate change and levels of GHG emissions. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5098 |
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Spanna, F.; Cassardo, C.; Cavalletto, S.; La Iacona, T.; Vitali, M.; Balanzino, A. |
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MACSUR Project – The case study of vineyards. Eco-physiological and biophysical modeling applied to the growth and productivity of vineyards in northwestern Italy |
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Conference Article |
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2014 |
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Viticulture in Italy is one of the economically most important agricultural sectors. Recent research allows eco-physiological and biophysical models to develop tools able to provide support to the crop management, in terms of optimizing production performance and limiting environmental impacts. The ability to check on a daily basis the activities of vegetative and productive phases of vines is certainly a fundamental tool for the vineyard organization and management, and for linking the trends of growth and productivity with the quality of the final product: the wine. Since some years, some researches are taking place in the vineyards of northwestern Italy, with the aim of modeling the eco-physiological behavior of the vines, using and valorizing all available historical field data related to the vegetative and productive behavior of the vines, as well as laboratory qualitative data. At the same time, our team is evaluating two different modeling approaches: one biophysical, using the land surface scheme UTOPIA (University of TOrino land Process Interaction in Atmosphere), and another one eco-physiological. The case-study vineyards, referred to the northwestern Italian territory, is part of a wider working program involving several integrated teams from Italy, Spain and Germany. The objectives are: to improve the use of the models used by different groups; to compare the results obtained by different modeling tools; to create a common database of field measurements; to study the relationships between vegetative-productive behaviors and quality of productions. |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
| Series Volume |
3(S) Sassari, Italy |
Series Issue |
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Edition |
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Conference |
FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5100 |
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