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Author Kollas, C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C.; Manevski, K.; Müller, C.; Palosuo, T.; Armas-Herrera, C.M.; Beaudoin, N.; Bindi, M.; Charfeddine, M.; Conradt, T.; Constantin, J.; Eitzinger, J.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; Gaiser, T.; Cortazar-Atauri, I.G. de; Giglio, L.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Hoffmann, M.P.; Launay, M.; Manderscheid, R.; Mary, B.; Mirschel, W.; Moriondo, M.; Olesen, J.E.; Öztürk, I.; Pacholski, A.; Ripoche-Wachter, D.; Roggero, P.P.; Roncossek, S.; Rötter, R.P.; Ruget, F.; Sharif, B.; Trnka, M.; Ventrella, D.; Waha, K.; Wegehenkel, M.; Weigel, H.-J.; Wu, L.
Title Crop rotation modelling—A European model intercomparison Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication European Journal of Agronomy Abbreviated Journal European Journal of Agronomy
Volume 70 Issue Pages 98-111
Keywords Model ensemble; Crop simulation models; Catch crop; Intermediate crop; Treatment; Multi-year; long-term experiment; climate-change; wheat production; n-fertilization; systems simulation; nitrogen dynamics; tillage intensity; winter-wheat; soil carbon; growth
Abstract • First model inter-comparison on crop rotations. • Continuous simulation of multi-year crop rotations yields outperformed single-year simulation. • Low accuracy of yield predictions in less commonly modelled crops such as potato, radish, grass vegetation. • Multi-model mean prediction was found to minimise the likely error arising from single-model predictions. • The representation of intermediate crops and carry-over effects in the models require further research efforts.

Diversification of crop rotations is considered an option to increase the resilience of European crop production under climate change. So far, however, many crop simulation studies have focused on predicting single crops in separate one-year simulations. Here, we compared the capability of fifteen crop growth simulation models to predict yields in crop rotations at five sites across Europe under minimal calibration. Crop rotations encompassed 301 seasons of ten crop types common to European agriculture and a diverse set of treatments (irrigation, fertilisation, CO2 concentration, soil types, tillage, residues, intermediate or catch crops). We found that the continuous simulation of multi-year crop rotations yielded results of slightly higher quality compared to the simulation of single years and single crops. Intermediate crops (oilseed radish and grass vegetation) were simulated less accurately than main crops (cereals). The majority of models performed better for the treatments of increased CO2 and nitrogen fertilisation than for irrigation and soil-related treatments. The yield simulation of the multi-model ensemble reduced the error compared to single-model simulations. The low degree of superiority of continuous simulations over single year simulation was caused by (a) insufficiently parameterised crops, which affect the performance of the following crop, and (b) the lack of growth-limiting water and/or nitrogen in the crop rotations under investigation. In order to achieve a sound representation of crop rotations, further research is required to synthesise existing knowledge of the physiology of intermediate crops and of carry-over effects from the preceding to the following crop, and to implement/improve the modelling of processes that condition these effects.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication (up) Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1161-0301 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4660
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Author Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Ruane, A.C.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.J.; Rötter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.
Title Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change Type Journal Article
Year 2013 Publication Nature Climate Change Abbreviated Journal Nat. Clim. Change
Volume 3 Issue 9 Pages 827-832
Keywords crop production; models; food; co2; temperature; projections; adaptation; scenarios; ensemble; impacts
Abstract Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain(1). Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate(2). However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models(1,3) are difficult(4). Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication (up) Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1758-678x ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur, IPCC-AR5 Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4599
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Author Wallach, D.; Mearns, L.O.; Ruane, A.C.; Rötter, R.P.; Asseng, S.
Title Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling Type Journal Article
Year 2016 Publication Climatic Change Abbreviated Journal Clim. Change
Volume 139 Issue 3-4 Pages 551-564
Keywords change projections; elevated CO2; uncertainty; wheat; water; soil; simulations; yield; rice; 21st-century; Model ensembles; Crop models; Climate models; Model weighting; Super ensembles
Abstract Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor.
Address 2017-01-06
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication (up) Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0165-0009 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ft_MACSUR Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4933
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Author Trnka, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Wimmerová, M.; Pohanková, E.; Rötter, R.; Olesen, J.E.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Semenov, M.
Title Paper on model responses to selected adverse weather conditions Type Report
Year 2017 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 10 Issue Pages C1.2-D
Keywords
Abstract Based on the Trnka et al. (2015) study that indicated that heat and drought will be the most important stress factors for most of the European what area the further effort focused on these two extremes. The crop model HERMES has been tested for its ability to replicate correctly drought stress, heat stress and combination of both stresses. While data on the drought stress were available for both field and growth chambers, heat stress and its combination with heat stress was available only for the growth chambers. The modified version of the HERMES crop model was developed by Dr. Kersebaum and is being currently prepared for the journal paper publication.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication (up) Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4954
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Author Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Ferrise, R.; Rodríguez, A.; Lorite, I.J.; Bindi, M.; Carter, T.R.; Fronzek, S.; Palosuo, T.; Pirttioja, N.; Baranowski, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Chen, Y.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Höhn, J.G.; Jurecka, F.; Kersebaum, H.-C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lana, M.; Mechiche-Alami, A.; Minet, J.; Montesino, M.; Nendel, C.; Porter, J.R.; Ruget, F.; Semenov, M.A.; Steinmetz, Z.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; de Wit, A.; Rötter, R.P.
Title Applying adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and elevated CO2 in a Mediterranean environment Type Report
Year 2017 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages C4.4-D
Keywords
Abstract This study developed Adaptation Response Surfaces and applied them to a study case in North East Spain on winter crops adaptation, using rainfed winter wheat as reference crop.  Crop responses to perturbed temperature, precipitation and CO2 were simulated by an ensemble of crop models. A set of combined changes on cultivars (on vernalisation requirements and phenology) and management (on sowing date and irrigation) were considered as adaptation options and simulated by the crop model ensemble. The discussion focused on two main issues: 1) the recommended adaptation options for different soil types and perturbation levels, and 2) the need of applying our current knowledge (AOCK) when building a crop model ensemble. The study has been published Agricultural Systems (Available online 25 January 2017, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.009 ), and the  text below consists on extracts from that paper.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication (up) Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4955
Permanent link to this record