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Author Schils, R.
Title Yield gap analysis of cereals in Europe supported by local knowledge Type
Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 5 Issue Pages Sp5-57
Keywords
Abstract The increasing demand for food requires a sustainable intensification of crop production in underperforming areas. Many global and local studies have addressed yield gaps, i.e. the difference between potential or water-limited yields and actual yields. Global studies generally rely on generic models combined with a grid-based approach. Although using a consistent method, it has been shown they are not suitable for local yield gap assessment. Local studies generally exploit knowledge of location-specific conditions and management, but are less comparable across locations due to different methods. To overcome these inconsistencies, the Global Yield Gap Atlas (GYGA, www.yieldgap.org) proposes a consistent bottom-up approach to estimate yield gaps. This paper outlines the implementation of GYGA for estimating yield gaps of cereals across Europe. For each country, climate zones are identified which represent the major growing areas. Within these climate zones, weather stations are selected with >=15 years of daily data. For dominant soil types within a buffer zone around the weather stations, the potential and water-limited yields are simulated with a crop model, using local knowledge on management. Actual yields are derived from sub-national statistics. Yield gaps are scaled up from buffer zones to climate zones and countries. We will present the first results for selected regions in Europe, and discuss methodological issues on location specific weather and upscaling from weather station buffer zones to climate zones and countries. Furthermore we will look ahead at the implementation of the yield gap cross cutting activity (XC9) in MACSUR-2. No Label
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Area Expedition Conference MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2172
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Author Sandars, D.
Title Understanding Europe’s future ability to feed itself within an uncertain climate change and socio economic scenario space Type
Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 5 Issue Pages Sp5-54
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Abstract Europe’s ability to feed its population depends on the balance of agricultural productivity (yields and land suitability) and demand which are affected by future climate and socio-economic change (arising from changing food demand; prices; technology change etc).  Land use under 2050 climate change and socio-economic scenarios can be rapidly and systematically quantified with a modelling system that has been developed from meta-models of optimal cropping and crop and forest yields derived from the outputs of the previously developed complex models (Audsley et al; 2015). Profitability of each possible land use is modelled for every soil in every grid across the EU. Land use in a grid is then allocated based on profit thresholds set for intensive agriculture extensive agriculture, managed forest and finally unmanaged forest or unmanaged land.  The European demand for food as a function of population, imports, food preferences and bioenergy, is a production constraint, as is irrigation water available.   The model iterates until demand is satisfied (or cannot be met at any price).  Results are presented as contour plots of key variables. For example, given a 40% increase in population from the baseline socio-economic scenario, adapting by increasing crop yields by 40% will leave a 38% probability that the 2050 future climate will be such that we cannot feed ourselves – considering “all” the possible climate scenarios. No Label
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Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
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Area Expedition Conference MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2169
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Author Sándor, R.
Title Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of grassland models in Europe and Israel Type
Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 5 Issue Pages Sp5-55
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Abstract Grassland models are valuable tools to test hypotheses on grassland ecosystem functioning. In the frame of FACCE MACSUR LiveM, a model intercomparison was conducted using a dataset from an observational and experimental network of nine multi-year grassland sites spread across Europe (France, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, The Netherlands, and United Kingdom) and Israel, and a suite of nine models to understand grassland functioning in the region. Grassland-specific approaches were compared to approaches mainly conceived to simulate crops and plant functional types. Model evaluation against actual measurements was performed before and after model calibration. The calibrated models were used to analyze their sensitivity to independent variations of temperature, precipitation and [CO2]. The results show to which extent calibration can accommodate model discrepancies. The sensitivity of simulated gross primary production to [CO2] and temperature is an important outcome, considering the fundamental effect of rising temperature and [CO2] on the C cycling of terrestrial ecosystems in the Euro-Mediterranean region. Overall, alternative models exhibit a different sensitivity to climate change factors, with different performances over different conditions. Explained by the basic processes of each model and also induced by different calibration methods, this difference is indicative that more models can be complementary and deliver greater insights than if they were applied individually. No Label
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication (up) Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2170
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Author Saetnan, E.
Title Are we building a better connected community Type
Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 5 Issue Pages Sp5-53
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Abstract
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication (up) Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2168
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Author Rusu, T.
Title Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Technology Management in the Transylvanian Plain, Romania Type
Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 5 Issue Pages Sp5-52
Keywords
Abstract The condition of land degradation in Transylvanian Plain and its effects, being the result of local extreme physical-geographical conditions, susceptible to degradation (evidenced by the erodibility index), which overlap the extreme climatic conditions. Thermal and hydric regime monitoring is necessary in order to identify and implement measures of adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Soil moisture and temperature regimes were evaluated using a set of 20 data logging stations positioned throughout the plain.  Each station stores electronic data of ground temperature at 3 depths (10, 30, 50 cm), the humidity at the depth of 10 cm, the air temperature (at 1 m) and precipitations. Climate change in the past few years have significantly altered the climatic indicators of the Transylvanian Plain. Precipitations, although deficient in terms of annual amounts, through their regime, have a negative influence on the plant carpet. Pluvial aggressiveness index reveals, for the research period, a first peak of pluvial aggressiveness during the months of February-April, then in July and in autumn, the months of October-November. This requires special measures for soil conservation, both in autumn and early spring, soil tillage measures being recommended which ensure the presence of plant debris and vegetation in early spring but especially in summer and autumn. Climatic indicators determined for the period 2009-2013 point out, in Transylvanian Plain, a semi-arid and mediterranean climate through the rain factor Lang, respectively semi-arid (in the South),  semi-humid (in the North) according to the De Martonne index. This climatic characterization requires special technological measures for soil conservation (green curtains, green manure, no-tillage and minimum tillage with mulch layer). The biologically active temperature recorded in the TP demonstrates the need to renew the division of the crop areas reported in the literature. No Label
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication (up) Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2167
Permanent link to this record