Abstract: The FACCE-ERA-Net Plus project “Climate smart Agriculture on Organic Soils” (CAOS) focuses on farmed organic soils, hotspots of vulnerability and GHG emissions in Europe. We propose to use wet organic soils as risk insurance in dry periods on farm/regional level, while water and soil management assures trafficability in wet conditions. Wet management systems abate peat degradation and therefore foster higher infiltration rates and ease subirrigation. Economically, wetness-adapted crops with stable yield quantity/quality for food, feed and bioenergy are needed. Convincing farmers and decision makers of profitable and resilient wet management systems on organic soils under climate change needs proof by on-farm experiments, historical evidence and bi-directional involvement.Overall, we aim to generate knowledge of climate smart agricultural system design on organic soils adapted to regional European conditions. CAOS will provide and distribute evidence that active management with control of groundwater levels, improved trafficability and alternative high productivity crops improves yield stability/quality and climate change resilience while mitigating GHG emissions and improving soil/water quality. We hypothesize that the strong potential for adaptation to increased climatic variability on farmed organic soil will facilitate mitigation of the largest GHG source from agriculture in Central/Northern Europe. At MACSUR conference, we present the project concept and first results. No Label

Abstract: Exploitation of alternative water sources is expected to grow in the decades to come in water-stressed countries with fast population growth, especially in regions where a further decline of natural freshwater availability is expected due to climate change. Increasing utilization of non-freshwater usually leads to salinity build-up in fields and water sources as well as accumulation of various pollutants – both having a considerable impact on the suitability of non-freshwater for irrigation due to constraints associated with crop salinity tolerance and food safety regulations.We developed a linked CGE – farm-level model of a water economy with representation for multiple water types characterized by different qualities. We employ the model to assess the impact of water shortage on the Israeli economy, where a steadily growing water scarcity is leading to an increasing utilization of alternative water sources. We simulate water shortage scenarios based on the Long Term National Master Plan for The Water Economy developed by the Israeli Water Authority (IWA).The linked CGE – farm-level model provides a mechanism for estimating the Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) rates between different irrigation water types used in agriculture. This mechanism accounts for the effects of salinity on yields and takes into consideration food safety regulations for irrigating crops with treated wastewater. We demonstrate that, in contrast to previous studies, CES rates between different water types are not identical and generally lower than previously assumed – differences that can be attributed to the constraints associated with crop salinity tolerance and food safety regulations.Our results reveal that water shortage can lead to a significant decline of Israel’s GDP, where a considerable part of the decline is attributed to the decrease in agricultural outputs. The magnitude of the impact depends on the underlying assumptions regarding future desalination capacity. To further study the effect of desalination, we run simulations under various desalination levels and examine its impact on the GDP. We also examine the extent to which the impact of water shortage is sensitive to CES rates between different irrigation water types. No Label

Abstract: The increase of maize production in Polish agriculture is considered as one of the indicators showing temporal climate change impact. The sowing area of grain maize in Poland increased from 152 thousand hectares in 2000 to 614 thousand hectares in 2013. In the same time, the area of maize production for forage in Poland has increased from 162 to 462 thousand hectares. There is observed increase of yield level but the regional differentiation of this trend is also visible. In the paper we discuss the temporal regional trends in maize yield in Poland connected to the limitation factors (soil, climate, fertilisation) and prognosis for further climate change impact using GLOBIOM-CAPRI regional simulations. The data for the analysis of regional trends for maize production level in 16th regions in Poland (NUTS2) were taken from National Statistical Offices Reports. The GLOBIOM-CAPRI regional simulations for baseline analysis 2010, 2030 and 2050 were obtained from MASCUR knowledge-hab evaluation exercises. As a limitation factors for of maize yield we considered the index for suitable soil and climate suitability index for climate developed in Poland and fertilisation. We have identified that observed positive trend in yield level at NUTS2 is correlated with the climate suitability index and level of NPK fertilisation, whilst there is no statistical relations with soil quality index. The GLOBIOM –CAPRI regional simulation for 2030 shows that the maize yield in Poland will further increase and it can be explained by realisation of existing trends. In simulations for the baseline 2050 year there is visible negative trend in yield level in some regions, where even in current climate there is high probability of deficit precipitation (eg. Wielkopolskia region). No Label