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Author |
Lehtonen, H. |
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Title |
Evaluating adaptation and the production development of Finnish agriculture in climate and global change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Food Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Food Science |
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Volume |
24 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
219-234 |
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Keywords |
agricultural sector modelling; economic adjustment; global prices; climate change; finnish agriculture; crop production; land-use; challenge; ensembles; Finland; Europe; policy |
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Abstract |
Agricultural product prices and policies influence the development of crop yields under climate change through farm level management decisions. On this basis, five main scenarios were specified for agricultural commodity prices and crop yields. An economic agricultural sector model was used in order to assess the impacts of the scenarios on production, land use and farm income in Finland. The results suggest that falling crop yields, if realized due to low prices and restrictive policies, will result in decreasing crop and livestock production and increasing nutrient surplus. Slowly increasing crop yields could stabilise production and increase farm income. Significantly higher crop prices and yields are required, however, for any marked increase in production in Finland. Cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, if there were high prices for agricultural products. This is explained by abundant land resources, a high opportunity cost of labour and policies maintaining current dairy and beef production. |
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2016-07-22 |
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English |
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1459-6067 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4750 |
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Author |
Semenov, M.A. |
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Title |
Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe |
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Conference Article |
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Year |
2013 |
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CropM |
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InterDrought IV, Perth, Western Australia, 2013-09-02 to 2013-09-06 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2818 |
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Author |
Semenov, M.A. |
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Title |
Delivering local-scale CMIP5-based climate scenarios for impact assessment in Europe |
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Conference Article |
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Year |
2014 |
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CropM |
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MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2819 |
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Author |
Semenov, M.A.; Pilkington-Bennett, S. |
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Title |
Validation of ELPIS baseline scenarios using ECA&D observed data |
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Conference Article |
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2012 |
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4151-4152 |
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CropM |
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Geophysical Research Abstracts |
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14 |
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European GeoSciences Union (EGU), General Assembly 2012, 2012-04-22 to 2012-04-27 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2820 |
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Author |
Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P. |
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Title |
Application of evolutionary algorithms for model calibration |
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Conference Article |
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Year |
2012 |
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CropM |
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Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference (GECCO 2012), Philadelphia, USA., 2012-07-07 to 2012-07-11 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2821 |
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