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Author Rötter, R.P. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Agricultural Impacts: Robust uncertainty Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Nature Climate Change Abbreviated Journal Nat. Clim. Change  
  Volume 4 Issue Pages 251-252  
  Keywords climate-change  
  Abstract THIS PAPER AIMS: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 x 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1758-678x 1758-6798 ISBN Medium Editorial Material  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4501  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Nendel, C.; Wieland, R.; Mirschel, W.; Specka, X.; Guddat, C.; Kersebaum, K.C. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Simulating regional winter wheat yields using input data of different spatial resolution Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication Field Crops Research Abbreviated Journal Field Crops Research  
  Volume 145 Issue Pages 67-77  
  Keywords monica; agro-ecosystem model; dynamic modelling; scaling; input data; climate-change; crop yield; nitrogen dynamics; food security; mineral nitrogen; soil-moisture; scaling-up; model; maize; water  
  Abstract The success of using agro-ecosystem models for the high-resolution simulation of agricultural yields for larger areas is often hampered by a lack of input data. We investigated the effect of different spatially resolved soil and weather data used as input for the MONICA model on its ability to reproduce winter wheat yields in the Federal State of Thuringia, Germany (16,172 km(2)). The combination of one representative soil and one weather station was insufficient to reproduce the observed mean yield of 6.66 +/- 0.87 t ha(-1) for the federal state. Use of a 100 m x 100 m grid of soil and relief information combined with just one representative weather station yielded a good estimator (7.01 +/- 1.47 t ha(-1)). The soil and relief data grid used in combination with weather information from 14 weather stations in a nearest neighbour approach produced even better results (6.60 +/- 1.37 t ha(-1)); the same grid used with 39 additional rain gauges and an interpolation algorithm that included an altitude correction of temperature data slightly overpredicted the observed mean (7.36 +/- 1.17 t ha(-1)). It was concluded that the apparent success of the first two high-resolution approaches over the latter was based on two effects that cancelled each other out: the calibration of MONICA to match high-yield experimental data and the growth-defining and -limiting effect of weather data that is not representative for large parts of the region. At the county and farm level the MONICA model failed to reproduce the 1992-2010 time series of yields, which is partly explained by the fact that many growth-reducing factors were not considered in the model. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0378-4290 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4498  
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Author Dono, G.; Cortignani, R.; Doro, L.; Giraldo, L.; Ledda, L.; Pasqui, M.; Roggero, P.P. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Adapting to uncertainty associated with short-term climate variability changes in irrigated Mediterranean farming systems Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication Agricultural Systems Abbreviated Journal Agricultural Systems  
  Volume 117 Issue Pages 1-12  
  Keywords changed climate variability; dsp; epic; adaptation; water management; irrigation; simulating impacts; co2 concentration; crop production; productivity; maize; yield; growth; model; photosynthesis; agriculture  
  Abstract Short-term perspectives appear to be relevant in formulating adaptation measures to changed climate variability (CCV) as a part of the European Rural Development Policy (RDP). Indeed, short-run CCV is the variation that farmers would perceive to such an extent that a political demand would be generated for adapting support measures. This study evaluates some relevant agronomic and economic impacts of CCV as modelled in a near future time period at the catchment scale in a rural district in Sardinia (Italy). The effects of CCV are assessed in relation to the availability of irrigation water and the irrigation needs of maize. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to simulate the impact of key climatic variables on the irrigation water requirements and yields of maize. A three-stage discrete stochastic programming model was then applied to simulate management and economic responses to those changes. The overall economic impact of a simulated CCV was found to be primarily caused by reduced stability in the future supply of irrigation water. Adaptations to this instability will most likely lead to a higher level of groundwater extraction and a reduction in the demand for labour. Changed climate variability will most likely reduce the income potential of small-scale farming. The most CCV-vulnerable farm typologies were identified, and the implications were discussed in relation to the development of adaptation measures within the context of the Common Agricultural Policy of European Union. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0308521x ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4489  
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Author Calanca, P.; Semenov, M.A. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication Theoretical and Applied Climatology Abbreviated Journal Theor. Appl. Climatol.  
  Volume 113 Issue 3-4 Pages 445-455  
  Keywords stochastic weather generators; regional climate; lars-wg; daily; precipitation; models; simulation; europe; temperature; variability; heatwaves  
  Abstract We present the integration of early 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to upgrade ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for use in impact studies and risk assessments that already included global projections from the CMIP3 ensemble and regional scenarios for Japan. To obtain a more reliable simulation of daily rainfall and extremes, changes in wet and dry series derived from daily ENSEMBLES outputs were taken into account. Kernel average smoothers were used to reduce noise arising from sampling artefacts. Examples of risk analyses based on 25-km climate projections from the ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional climate models illustrate the possibilities offered by the updated version of ELPIS. The results stress the importance of tailored information for local-scale impact assessments at the European level.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0177-798x 1434-4483 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4484  
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Author Rusu, T.; Coste, C.L.; Moraru, P.I.; Szajdak, L.W.; Pop, A.I.; Duda, B.M. url  openurl
  Title Impact of climate change on agro-climatic indicators and agricultural lands in the Transylvanian Plain between 2008-2014 Type Journal Article
  Year 2017 Publication Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences Abbreviated Journal Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences  
  Volume 12 Issue 1 Pages 23-34  
  Keywords climate change; adaptation technologies; Transylvanian Plain  
  Abstract Integrated conservation and management of agricultural areas affected by the current global warming represents a priority at international level following the implementation of the principles of sustainable agriculture and adaptation measures. Transylvanian Plain (TP), with an area of 395,616 ha is of great agricultural importance for Romania, but with an afforestation degree of only 6.8% and numerous degradation phenomena of farmland, it has the lowest degree of sustainability to climate change. Monitoring of agro-climatic indicators and their evolution in between 2008-2014 and the analysis of the obtained data underlie the technological development of recommendations tailored to current favorable conditions for the main crops. Results obtained show that: the thermal regime of the soils in TP is of mesic type and the hydric regime is ustic; multiannual average of temperature in soil at 10 cm depth is 11.40ºC, respectively at 50 cm depth is 10.24ºC; the average yearly air temperature is 11.17ºC; multiannual average of soil moisture is 0.227 m3/m3; Multiannual average value of precipitation is 466.52 mm. During the studied period, compared with data series available (1961-1990; 1901-2000), clear decrease of the average quantities of rainfall especially during critical periods for crops, and increases in average temperatures for the entire year can be noticed. Between June and August the highest temperature difference were recorded, differences of +3.09°C to +3.65°C. There is an increase phenomenon of drought and heat; determined indicators show that most values, 61.11%, are commensurate with a semiarid climate. Aggression peaks are in February-April, July, and October-November, and for the whole period, in 19.43% of the cases are favorable and very favorable conditions for triggering erosion. Recommended agro-technical measures to limit and counteract the effects of drought, as a climatic phenomenon with major risk to agriculture in TP, refer to: i) use of a biological material resistant to water stress and heat; ii) use of management practices favorable for accumulation of, conservation and the efficient use of water from rainfall; iii) operating a system of conservation agriculture based on soil protection and desertification avoidance.  
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  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1842-4090; 1844-489x ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4984  
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