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Author Dietrich, J.P.; Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Muller, C. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Forecasting technological change in agriculture-An endogenous implementation in a global, and use model Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Technological Forecasting and Social Change Abbreviated Journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change  
  Volume 81 Issue Pages 236-249  
  Keywords Technological change; Land use; Agricultural productivity; Land use; intensity; Research and development; land-use; research expenditures; productivity growth; impact; deforestation; forest; yield; Business & Economics; Public Administration  
  Abstract Technological change in agriculture plays a decisive role for meeting future demands for agricultural goods. However, up to now, agricultural sector models and models on land use change have used technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt towards an endogenous implementation based on a measure of agricultural land use intensity. We relate this measure to empirical data on investments in technological change. Our estimated yield elasticity with respect to research investments is 029 and production costs per area increase linearly with an increasing yield level. Implemented in the global land use model MAgPIE (”Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”) this approach provides estimates of future yield growth. Highest future yield increases are required in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Our validation with FAO data for the period 1995-2005 indicates that the model behavior is in line with observations. By comparing two scenarios on forest conservation we show that protecting sensitive forest areas in the future is possible but requires substantial investments into technological change. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0040-1625 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4789  
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Author Refsgaard, J.C.; Madsen, H.; Andréassian, V.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Davidson, T.A.; Drews, M.; Hamilton, D.P.; Jeppesen, E.; Kjellström, E.; Olesen, J.E.; Sonnenborg, T.O.; Trolle, D.; Willems, P.; Christensen, J.H. url  doi
openurl 
  Title A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Climatic Change Abbreviated Journal Clim. Change  
  Volume 122 Issue 1-2 Pages 271-282  
  Keywords simulation-models; shallow lakes; predictions; calibration; ensembles; terminology; uncertainty; temperature; adaptation; validation  
  Abstract Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0165-0009 1573-1480 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4688  
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Author Twardy, S.; Kopacz, M. openurl 
  Title Comparison of concentrations and loads of macronutrients brought with precipitation and leaching from the soil profile Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Polish Journal of Environmental Studies Abbreviated Journal Pol. J. Environ. Stud.  
  Volume 23 Issue 3a Pages 132-136  
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  Notes (down) CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4640  
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Author Sanz-Cobena, A.; García-Marco, S.; Quemada, M.; Gabriel, J.L.; Almendros, P.; Vallejo, A. doi  openurl
  Title Do cover crops enhance N2O, CO2 or CH4 emissions from soil in Mediterranean arable systems? Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Science of the Total Environment Abbreviated Journal Science of the Total Environment  
  Volume 466-467 Issue Pages 164-174  
  Keywords Agriculture/*methods; Air Pollutants/*metabolism; Brassica napus/growth & development/metabolism; Crops, Agricultural/growth & development/*metabolism; Gases/metabolism; Greenhouse Effect; Hordeum/growth & development/metabolism; Manure/*analysis; Nitrogen/metabolism; Nitrogen Dioxide/metabolism; Spain; Vicia/growth & development/metabolism; Zea mays/growth & development; Cover crops; GHG emissions; Green manure; Irrigation; Maize  
  Abstract This study evaluates the effect of planting three cover crops (CCs) (barley, Hordeum vulgare L.; vetch, Vicia villosa L.; rape, Brassica napus L.) on the direct emission of N(2)O, CO(2) and CH(4) in the intercrop period and the impact of incorporating these CCs on the emission of greenhouse gas (GHG) from the forthcoming irrigated maize (Zea mays L.) crop. Vetch and barley were the CCs with the highest N(2)O and CO(2) losses (75 and 47% increase compared with the control, respectively) in the fallow period. In all cases, fluxes of N(2)O were increased through N fertilization and the incorporation of barley and rape residues (40 and 17% increase, respectively). The combination of a high C:N ratio with the addition of an external source of mineral N increased the fluxes of N(2)O compared with -Ba and -Rp. The direct emissions of N(2)O were lower than expected for a fertilized crop (0.10% emission factor, EF) compared with other studies and the IPCC EF. These results are believed to be associated with a decreased NO(3)(-) pool due to highly denitrifying conditions and increased drainage. The fluxes of CO(2) were in the range of other fertilized crops (i.e., 1118.71-1736.52 kg CO(2)-Cha(-1)). The incorporation of CC residues enhanced soil respiration in the range of 21-28% for barley and rape although no significant differences between treatments were detected. Negative CH(4) fluxes were measured and displayed an overall sink effect for all incorporated CC (mean values of -0.12 and -0.10 kg CH(4)-Cha(-1) for plots with and without incorporated CCs, respectively).  
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  ISSN 0048-9697 ISBN Medium Article  
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  Notes (down) CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4639  
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Author Porter, J.R.; Wratten, S. doi  openurl
  Title National carbon stocks: Move on to a carbon currency standard Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Nature Abbreviated Journal Nature  
  Volume 506 Issue Pages 295  
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  Abstract Alongside Robert Costanza and colleagues’ plea to abandon gross domestic product as a measure of national success (see Nature 505, 283–285; 2014), we believe that there is an urgent need to change the way currencies are valued — by using a new ‘carbon standard’ that links economy to ecology. This would work in a similar way to the old gold-exchange standard, except that a country’s currency value would instead be determined by its saved and standing stocks of fossil and non-fossil carbon. Governments would need to decide whether to risk devaluing their currency by depleting carbon stocks — while still honouring a commitment to keep fossil-carbon stocks at 80% as a safeguard against extreme climate change. After the Second World War, huge investments radically altered the economies of the United States, the Soviet Union and the United Kingdom. In the face of climate change, it is now the global energy system that needs reinvention.  
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  Notes (down) CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4635  
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