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Author |
Castañeda-Vera, A.; Leffelaar, P.A.; Álvaro-Fuentes, J.; Cantero-Martínez, C.; Mínguez, M.I. |
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Title |
Selecting crop models for decision making in wheat insurance |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume |
68 |
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Pages |
97-116 |
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Keywords |
aquacrop; ceres-wheat; cropsyst; wofost; model choice; rainfed semi-arid areas; radiation use efficiency; water deficit; use efficiency; management-practices; farming systems; field-capacity; soil; yield; evaporation; photosynthesis; transpiration; irrigation |
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In crop insurance, the accuracy with which the insurer quantifies the actual risk is highly dependent on the availability on actual yield data. Crop models might be valuable tools to generate data on expected yields for risk assessment when no historical records are available. However, selecting a crop model for a specific objective, location and implementation scale is a difficult task. A look inside the different crop and soil modules to understand how outputs are obtained might facilitate model choice. The objectives of this paper were (i) to assess the usefulness of crop models to be used within a crop insurance analysis and design and (ii) to select the most suitable crop model for drought risk assessment in semi-arid regions in Spain. For that purpose first, a pre-selection of crop models simulating wheat yield under rainfed growing conditions at the field scale was made, and second, four selected models (Aquacrop, CERES-Wheat, CropSyst and WOFOST) were compared in terms of modelling approaches, process descriptions and model outputs. Outputs of the four models for the simulation of winter wheat growth are comparable when water is not limiting, but differences are larger when simulating yields under rainfed conditions. These differences in rainfed yields are mainly related to the dissimilar simulated soil water availability and the assumed linkages with dry matter formation. We concluded that for the simulation of winter wheat growth at field scale in such semi-arid conditions, CERES-Wheat and CropSyst are preferred. WOFOST is a satisfactory compromise between data availability and complexity when detail data on soil is limited. Aquacrop integrates physiological processes in some representative parameters, thus diminishing the number of input parameters, what is seen as an advantage when observed data is scarce. However, the high sensitivity of this model to low water availability limits its use in the region considered. Contrary to the use of ensembles of crop models, we endorse that efforts be concentrated on selecting or rebuilding a model that includes approaches that better describe the agronomic conditions of the regions in which they will be applied. The use of such complex methodologies as crop models is associated with numerous sources of uncertainty, although these models are the best tools available to get insight in these complex agronomic systems. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4710 |
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Author |
Ghaley, B.B.; Sandhu, H.S.; Porter, J.R. |
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Title |
Relationship between C:N/C:O stoichiometry and ecosystem services in managed production systems |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
PLoS One |
Abbreviated Journal |
PLoS One |
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10 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
e0123869 |
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Keywords |
Carbon/*metabolism; *Conservation of Natural Resources/economics; Denmark; *Ecosystem; Fagus/metabolism; Forests; Nitrogen/*metabolism; Oxygen/*metabolism; Soil |
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Abstract |
Land use and management intensity can influence provision of ecosystem services (ES). We argue that forest/agroforestry production systems are characterized by relatively higher C:O/C:N and ES value compared to arable production systems. Field investigations on C:N/C:O and 15 ES were determined in three diverse production systems: wheat monoculture (Cwheat), a combined food and energy system (CFE) and a beech forest in Denmark. The C:N/C:O ratios were 194.1/1.68, 94.1/1.57 and 59.5/1.45 for beech forest, CFE and Cwheat, respectively. The economic value of the non-marketed ES was also highest in beech forest (US$ 1089 ha(-1) yr(-1)) followed by CFE (US$ 800 ha(-1) yr(-1)) and Cwheat (US$ 339 ha(-1) yr(-1)). The combined economic value was highest in the CFE (US$ 3143 ha(-1) yr(-1)) as compared to the Cwheat (US$ 2767 ha(-1) yr(-1)) and beech forest (US$ 2365 ha(-1) yr(-1)). We argue that C:N/C:O can be used as a proxy of ES, particularly for the non-marketed ES, such as regulating, supporting and cultural services. These ES play a vital role in the sustainable production of food and energy. Therefore, they should be considered in decision making and developing appropriate policy responses for land use management. |
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1932-6203 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4692 |
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Author |
Mansouri, M.; Destain, M.-F. |
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Title |
Predicting biomass and grain protein content using Bayesian methods |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess. |
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29 |
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4 |
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1167-1177 |
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Keywords |
crop model; particle filter; prediction; ensemble kalman filter; parameter-estimation; particle filters; decision-support; state estimation; model; nitrogen; navigation; tracking; systems |
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Abstract |
This paper deals with the problem of predicting biomass and grain protein content using improved particle filtering (IPF) based on minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The performances of IPF are compared with those of the conventional particle filtering (PF) in two comparative studies. In the first one, we apply IPF and PF at a simple dynamic crop model with the aim to predict a single state variable, namely the winter wheat biomass, and to estimate several model parameters. In the second study, the proposed IPF and the PF are applied to a complex crop model (AZODYN) to predict a winter-wheat quality criterion, namely the grain protein content. The results of both comparative studies reveal that the IPF method provides a better estimation accuracy than the PF method. The benefit of the IPF method lies in its ability to provide accuracy related advantages over the PF method since, unlike the PF which depends on the choice of the sampling distribution used to estimate the posterior distribution, the IPF yields an optimum choice of this sampling distribution, which also utilizes the observed data. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated in terms of estimation accuracy, root mean square error, mean absolute error and execution times. |
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1436-3240 1436-3259 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4664 |
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Author |
Ghaley, B.B.; Porter, J.R. |
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Title |
Ecosystem function and service quantification and valuation in a conventional winter wheat production system with the DAISY model in Denmark |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
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Ecosystem Services |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecosystem Services |
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10 |
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79-83 |
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Keywords |
soil organic matter; winter wheat production; informed decision-making; ecosystem function; ecosystem service; soil carbon sequestration; organic-matter dynamics; mitigate climate-change; calibration; validation; land |
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With inevitable link between ecosystem function (EF), ecosystem services (ES) and agricultural productivity, there is a need for quantification and valuation of EF and ES in agro-ecosystems. Management practices have significant effects on soil organic matter (SOM), affecting productivity, EF and ES provision. The objective was to quantify two EF: soil water storage and nitrogen mineralization and three ES: food and fodder production and carbon sequestration, in a conventional winter wheat production system at 2.6% SOM compared to 50% lower (1.3%) and 50% higher (3.9%) SOM in Denmark by DAISY model. At 2.6% SOM, the food and fodder production was 649 and 6.86 t ha(-1) year(-1) respectively whereas carbon sequestration and soil water storage was 9.73 t ha(-1) year and 684 mm ha(-1) year(-1) respectively and nitrogen mineralisation was 83.58 kg ha(-1) year(-1), AL 2.6% SOM, the two EF and three ES values were US$ 177 and US$ 2542 ha(-1) year respectively equivalent to US$ 96 and US$1370 million year(-1) respectively in Denmark. The EF and ES quantities and values were positively correlated with SOM content. Hence, the quantification and valuation of EF and ES provides an empirical tool for optimising the Er. and ES provision for agricultural productivity. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved |
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2212-0416 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4625 |
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Ghaley, B.B.; Vesterdal, L.; Porter, J.R. |
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Title |
Quantification and valuation of ecosystem services in diverse production systems for informed decision-making |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
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Environmental Science & Policy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environmental Science & Policy |
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39 |
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139-149 |
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bio-physical quantification; combined food and energy system; economic valuation field measurements; land management; marketable and non-marketable ecosystem services; land-use change; carbon; farm; efficiency; crops; china; model; scale; field |
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The empirical evidence of decline in ecosystem services (ES) over the last century has reinforced the call for ES quantification, monitoring and valuation. Usually, only provisioning ES are marketable and accounted for, whereas regulating, supporting and cultural ES are typically non-marketable and overlooked in connection with land-use or management decisions. The objective of this study was to quantify and value total ES (marketable and non-marketable) of diverse production systems and management intensities in Denmark to provide a basis for decisions based on economic values. The production systems were conventional wheat (Cwheat), a combined food and energy (CFE) production system and beech forest. Marketable (provisioning ES) and non-marketable ES (supporting, regulating and cultural) ES were quantified by dedicated on-site field measurements supplemented by literature data. The value of total ES was highest in CFE (US$ 3142 ha(-1) yr(-1)) followed by Cwheat (US$ 2767 ha (1) yr(-1)) and beech forest (US$ 2328 ha(-1) yr(-1)). As the production system shifted from Cwheat – CFE-beech, the marketable ES share decreased from 88% to 75% in CFE and 55% in beech whereas the non-marketable ES share increased to 12%, 25% and 45% of total ES in Cwheat, CFE and beech respectively, demonstrating production system and management effects on ES values. Total ES valuation, disintegrated into marketable and non-marketable share is a potential way forward to value ES and `tune’ our production systems for enhanced ES provision. Such monetary valuation can be used by policy makers and land managers as a tool to assess ES value and monitor the sustained flow of ES. The application of ES-based valuation for land management can enhance ES provision for maintaining the productive capacity of the land without depending on the external fossil-based fertilizer and chemical input. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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1462-9011 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4623 |
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