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Author |
Bellocchi, G.; Rivington, M.; Matthews, K.; Acutis, M. |
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Title |
Deliberative processes for comprehensive evaluation of agroecological models. A review |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agronomy for Sustainable Development |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agron. Sust. Developm. |
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Volume |
35 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
589-605 |
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Keywords |
component-oriented programing; deliberative approach; modeling; model evaluation; multiple metrics; stakeholders; decision-support-systems; environmental-models; performance evaluation; groundwater models; farming systems; climate-change; irene-dll; simulation; validation; integration |
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Abstract |
The use of biophysical models in agroecology has increased in the last few decades for two main reasons: the need to formalize empirical knowledge and the need to disseminate model-based decision support for decision makers (such as farmers, advisors, and policy makers). The first has encouraged the development and use of mathematical models to enhance the efficiency of field research through extrapolation beyond the limits of site, season, and management. The second reflects the increasing need (by scientists, managers, and the public) for simulation experimentation to explore options and consequences, for example, future resource use efficiency (i.e., management in sustainable intensification), impacts of and adaptation to climate change, understanding market and policy responses to shocks initiated at a biophysical level under increasing demand, and limited supply capacity. Production concerns thus dominate most model applications, but there is a notable growing emphasis on environmental, economic, and policy dimensions. Identifying effective methods of assessing model quality and performance has become a challenging but vital imperative, considering the variety of factors influencing model outputs. Understanding the requirements of stakeholders, in respect of model use, logically implies the need for their inclusion in model evaluation methods. We reviewed the use of metrics of model evaluation, with a particular emphasis on the involvement of stakeholders to expand horizons beyond conventional structured, numeric analyses. Two major topics are discussed: (1) the importance of deliberative processes for model evaluation, and (2) the role computer-aided techniques may play to integrate deliberative processes into the evaluation of agroecological models. We point out that (i) the evaluation of agroecological models can be improved through stakeholder follow-up, which is a key for the acceptability of model realizations in practice, (ii) model credibility depends not only on the outcomes of well-structured, numerically based evaluation, but also on less tangible factors that may need to be addressed using complementary deliberative processes, (iii) comprehensive evaluation of simulation models can be achieved by integrating the expectations of stakeholders via a weighting system of preferences and perception, (iv) questionnaire-based surveys can help understand the challenges posed by the deliberative process, and (v) a benefit can be obtained if model evaluation is conceived in a decisional perspective and evaluation techniques are developed at the same pace with which the models themselves are created and improved. Scientific knowledge hubs are also recognized as critical pillars to advance good modeling practice in relation to model evaluation (including access to dedicated software tools), an activity which is frequently neglected in the context of time-limited framework programs. |
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1774-0746 1773-0155 |
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Review |
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CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4551 |
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Toscano, P.; Ranieri, R.; Matese, A.; Vaccari, F.P.; Gioli, B.; Zaldei, A.; Silvestri, M.; Ronchi, C.; La Cava, P.; Porter, J.R.; Miglietta, F. |
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Title |
Durum wheat modeling: The Delphi system, 11 years of observations in Italy |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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43 |
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Pages |
108-118 |
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Keywords |
durum wheat; crop modeling; yield forecasting; calibration; scenarios; decision-support-system; crop simulation-model; ceres-wheat; mediterranean environment; winter-wheat; scaling-up; variability; quality; growth; water |
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Abstract |
► Delphi system, based on AFRCWHEAT2 model, for durum wheat forecast. ► AFRCWHEAT2 model was calibrated and validated for three years. ► A scenario approach was applied to simulation of durum wheat yield. ► Operational mode for eleven years in rainfed and water limiting conditions. ► Accurate forecast as an useful planning tool. Crop models are frequently used in ecology, agronomy and environmental sciences for simulating crop and environmental variables at a discrete time step. The aim of this work was to test the predictive capacity of the Delphi system, calibrated and determined for each pedoclimatic factor affecting durum wheat during phenological development. at regional scale. We present an innovative system capable of predicting spatial yield variation and temporal yield fluctuation in long-term analysis, that are the main purposes of regional crop simulation study. The Delphi system was applied to simulate growth and yield of durum wheat in the major Italian supply basins (Basilicata, Capitanata, Marche, Tuscany). The model was validated and evaluated for three years (1995-1997) at 11 experimental fields and then used in operational mode for eleven years (1999-2009), showing an excellent/good accuracy in predicting grain yield even before maturity for a wide range of growing conditions in the Mediterranean climate, governed by different annual weather patterns. The results were evaluated on the basis of regression and normalized root mean squared error with known crop yield statistics at regional level. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4596 |
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Fan, F.; Henriksen, C.B.; Porter, J. |
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Title |
Valuation of ecosystem services in organic cereal crop production systems with different management practices in relation to organic matter input |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Ecosystem Services |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecosystem Services |
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22 |
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117-127 |
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Keywords |
soil physical-properties; carbon sequestration; microbial biomass; farming systems; nitrogen mineralization; earthworm populations; straw; incorporation; economic valuation; agricultural soils; different tillage; Organic farming; Ecosystem services; Economic valuation; Management; Informed decision making |
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As the degradation of global ecosystem services (ES) continues in the last five decades, maintaining or even enhancing the ES of agro-ecosystem is one of the approaches to mitigate the global ES loss. This study provides the first estimate of an economic valuation of ES provided by organic cereal crop production systems with different management practices in relation to organic matter input (low, medium and high). Our results show that organic matter inputs significantly affect the total ES value on organic cereal crop production systems. The system with high organic matter input has the highest gross total ES value (US$ 1969 ha(-1) yr(-1)), followed by the low organic matter input system (US$ 1688 ha(-1) yr(-1)), and the lowest ES value are found in the medium organic matter input system (US$ 1492 ha(-1) yr(-1)). Organic matter inputs have strong positive relationship with non-marketable ES values, while this relationship was not found in marketable ES values. Monetizing the ES can be used by land managers and policy makers to adjust management practices in terms of organic matter input in cereal production system with a long term goal for sustainable agriculture. |
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2017-01-12 |
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2212-0416 |
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CropM, ft_MACSUR |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4934 |
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Graversgaard, M.; Hedelin, B.; Smith, L.; Gertz, F.; Höjberg, A.L.; Langford, J.; Martinez, G.; Mostert, E. |
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Title |
Opportunities and Barriers for Water Co-Governance – A Critical Analysis of Seven Cases of Diffuse Water Pollution from Agriculture in Europe, Australia and North America |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Sustainability |
Abbreviated Journal |
Sustainability |
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10 |
Issue |
5 |
Pages |
1634 |
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Keywords |
collaborative governance; decentralized decision-making; non-point source pollution; nutrient management; water governance; management; policy; river; eutrophication; phosphorus; resources; nitrogen; hypoxia; quality; options |
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Diffuse Water Pollution from Agriculture (DWPA) and its governance has received increased attention as a policy concern across the globe. Mitigation of DWPA is a complex problem that requires a mix of policy instruments and a multi-agency, broad societal response. In this paper, opportunities and barriers for developing co-governance, defined as collaborative societal involvement in the functions of government, and its suitability for mitigation of DWPA are reviewed using seven case studies in Europe (Poland, Denmark, Sweden, The Netherlands and UK), Australia (Murray-Darling Basin) and North America (State of Minnesota). An analytical framework for assessing opportunities and barriers of co-governance was developed and applied in this review. Results indicated that five key issues constitute both opportunities and barriers, and include: (i) pressure for change; (ii) connected governance structures and allocation of resources and funding; (iii) leadership and establishment of partnerships through capacity building; (iv) use and co-production of knowledge; and (v) time commitment to develop water co-governance. |
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2018-07-12 |
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2071-1050 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5205 |
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Rodriguez, A.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Palosuo, T.; Carter, T.R.; Fronzek, S.; Lorite, I.J.; Ferrise, R.; Pirttioja, N.; Bindi, M.; Baranowski, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Chen, Y.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Hohn, J.G.; Jurecka, F.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lana, M.; Mechiche-Alami, A.; Minet, J.; Montesino, M.; Nendel, C.; Porter, J.R.; Ruget, F.; Semenov, M.A.; Steinmetz, Z.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; de Wit, A.; Roetter, R.P. |
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Title |
Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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264 |
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351-362 |
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Keywords |
Wheat adaptation; Uncertainty; Climate change; Decision support; Response surface; Outcome confidence; Climate-Change Impacts; Response Surfaces; Wheat; Uncertainty; Yield; Simulation; 21St-Century; Productivity; Temperature; Projections |
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unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised. Moreover, results and derived recommendations typically rely on averaged ensemble simulation results without accounting sufficiently for the spread of model outcomes. Therefore, we developed an Ensemble Outcome Agreement (EOA) index, which analyses the effect of changes in composition and size of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to evaluate the level of agreement between MME outcomes with respect to a given hypothesis (e.g. that adaptation measures result in positive crop responses). We analysed the recommendations of a previous study performed with an ensemble of 17 crop models and testing 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivwn L.) at Lleida (NE Spain) under perturbed conditions of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results confirmed that most adaptations recommended in the previous study have a positive effect. However, we also showed that some options did not remain recommendable in specific conditions if different ensembles were considered. Using EOA, we were able to identify the adaptation options for which there is high confidence in their effectiveness at enhancing yields, even under severe climate perturbations. These include substituting spring wheat for winter wheat combined with earlier sowing dates and standard or longer duration cultivars, or introducing supplementary irrigation, the latter increasing EOA values in all cases. There is low confidence in recovering yields to baseline levels, although this target could be attained for some adaptation options under moderate climate perturbations. Recommendations derived from such robust results may provide crucial information for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures. |
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2019-01-07 |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5214 |
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