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Author | Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Åby, B.A.; Persson, T.; Höglind, M.; Mittenzwei, K. | ||||
Title | Combining models to estimate the impacts of future climate scenarios on feed supply, greenhouse gas emissions and economic performance on dairy farms in Norway | Type | Journal Article | ||
Year | 2017 | Publication | Agricultural Systems | Abbreviated Journal | Agric. Syst. |
Volume | 157 | Issue | Pages | 157-169 | |
Keywords | Climate change; Dairy farming; Dry matter yield; Economics; Greenhouse gas emission; Modelling | ||||
Abstract | • This study combines crop, livestock and economic models. • Models interaction is through use of relevant input and output variables. • Future climate change will result in increased grass and wheat dry matter yields. • Changes in grass, wheat and milk yields in future reduce farm emissions intensity. • Changes in future dry matter yields and emissions lead to increased profitability. There is a scientific consensus that the future climate change will affect grass and crop dry matter (DM) yields. Such yield changes may entail alterations to farm management practices to fulfill the feed requirements and reduce the farm greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from dairy farms. While a large number of studies have focused on the impacts of projected climate change on a single farm output (e.g. GHG emissions or economic performance), several attempts have been made to combine bio-economic systems models with GHG accounting frameworks. In this study, we aimed to determine the physical impacts of future climate scenarios on grass and wheat DM yields, and demonstrate the effects such changes in future feed supply may have on farm GHG emissions and decision-making processes. For this purpose, we combined four models: BASGRA and CSM-CERES-Wheat models for simulating forage grass DM and wheat DM grain yields respectively; HolosNor for estimating the farm GHG emissions; and JORDMOD for calculating the impacts of changes in the climate and management on land use and farm economics. Four locations, with varying climate and soil conditions were included in the study: south-east Norway, south-west Norway, central Norway and northern Norway. Simulations were carried out for baseline (1961–1990) and future (2046–2065) climate conditions (projections based on two global climate models and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B GHG emission scenario), and for production conditions with and without a milk quota. The GHG emissions intensities (kilogram carbon dioxide equivalent: kgCO2e emissions per kg fat and protein corrected milk: FPCM) varied between 0.8 kg and 1.23 kg CO2e (kg FPCM)− 1, with the lowest and highest emissions found in central Norway and south-east Norway, respectively. Emission intensities were generally lower under future compared to baseline conditions due mainly to higher future milk yields and to some extent to higher crop yields. The median seasonal above-ground timothy grass yield varied between 11,000 kg and 16,000 kg DM ha− 1 and was higher in all projected future climate conditions than in the baseline. The spring wheat grain DM yields simulated for the same weather conditions within each climate projection varied between 2200 kg and 6800 kg DM ha− 1. Similarly, the farm profitability as expressed by total national land rents varied between 1900 million Norwegian krone (NOK) for median yields under baseline climate conditions up to 3900 million NOK for median yield under future projected climate conditions. |
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Notes | CropM, LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur | Approved | no | ||
Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 5172 | ||
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Author | Bennetzen, E.H.; Smith, P.; Porter, J.R. | ||||
Title | Agricultural production and greenhouse gas emissions from world regions—The major trends over 40 years | Type | Journal Article | ||
Year | 2016 | Publication | Global Environmental Change | Abbreviated Journal | Glob. Environ. Change |
Volume | 37 | Issue | Pages | 43-55 | |
Keywords | Agriculture; Greenhouse gas intensity; Climate change; Kaya-Porter; identity; Decoupling emissions; Kaya-identity; land-use change; carbon-dioxide emissions; sustainable intensification; livestock production; forest transitions; global agriculture; crop; production; food security; deforestation; mitigation | ||||
Abstract | Since 1970, global agricultural production has more than doubled with agriculture and land-use change now responsible for similar to 1/4 of greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Yet, while greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of agricultural product have been reduced at a global level, trends in world regions have been quantified less thoroughly. The KPI (Kaya-Porter Identity) is a novel framework for analysing trends in agricultural production and land-use change and related GHG emissions. We apply this to assess trends and differences in nine world regions over the period 1970-2007. We use a deconstructed analysis of emissions from the mix of multiple sources, and show how each is changing in terms of absolute emissions on a per area and per produced unit basis, and how the change of emissions from each source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. The doubling of global agricultural production has mainly been delivered by developing and transitional countries, and this has been mirrored by increased GHG emissions. The decoupling of emissions from production shows vast regional differences. Our estimates show that emissions per unit crop (as kg CO2-equivalents per Giga Joule crop product), in Oceania, have been reduced by 94% from 1093 to 69; in Central & South America by 57% from 849 to 362; in sub-Saharan Africa by 27% from 421 to 309, and in Europe by 56% from 86 to 38. Emissions per unit livestock (as kg CO2-eq. GJ(-1) livestock product) have reduced; in sub-Saharan Africa by 24% from 6001 to 4580; in Central & South America by 61% from 3742 to 1448; in Central & Eastern Asia by 82% from 3,205 to 591, and; in North America by 28% from 878 to 632. In general, intensive and industrialised systems show the lowest emissions per unit of agricultural production. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. | ||||
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Language | English | Summary Language | Original Title | ||
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ISSN | 0959-3780 | ISBN | Medium | Article | |
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Notes | CropM, ftnotmacsur | Approved | no | ||
Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 4758 | ||
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Author | Bennetzen, E.H.; Smith, P.; Porter, J.R. | ||||
Title | Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970-2050 | Type | Journal Article | ||
Year | 2016 | Publication | Global Change Biology | Abbreviated Journal | Glob. Chang. Biol. |
Volume | 22 | Issue | 2 | Pages | 763-781 |
Keywords | climate change; energy use; global agriculture; greenhouse gas emissions; land use; mitigation; sustainable intensification | ||||
Abstract | Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land-use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya-Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements allowing not only a combined analysis of the total level of all emissions jointly with emissions per unit area and emissions per unit product. It also allows us to examine how a change in emissions from a given source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. We show that agricultural production and GHGs have been steadily decoupled over recent decades. Emissions peaked in 1991 at ~12 Pg CO2 -eq. yr(-1) and have not exceeded this since. Since 1970 GHG emissions per unit product have declined by 39% and 44% for crop- and livestock-production, respectively. Except for the energy-use component of farming, emissions from all sources have increased less than agricultural production. Our projected business-as-usual range suggests that emissions may be further decoupled by 20-55% giving absolute agricultural emissions of 8.2-14.5 Pg CO2 -eq. yr(-1) by 2050, significantly lower than many previous estimates that do not allow for decoupling. Beyond this, several additional costcompetitive mitigation measures could reduce emissions further. However, agricultural GHG emissions can only be reduced to a certain level and a simultaneous focus on other parts of the food-system is necessary to increase food security whilst reducing emissions. The identity approach presented here could be used as a methodological framework for more holistic food systems analysis. | ||||
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Language | English | Summary Language | Original Title | ||
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ISSN | 1354-1013 | ISBN | Medium | Article | |
Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
Notes | CropM, ftnotmacsur | Approved | no | ||
Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 4706 | ||
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Author | Bennetzen, E.H.; Smith, P.; Soussana, J.-F.; Porter, J.R. | ||||
Title | Identity-based estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from crop production: case study from Denmark | Type | Journal Article | ||
Year | 2012 | Publication | European Journal of Agronomy | Abbreviated Journal | European Journal of Agronomy |
Volume | 41 | Issue | Pages | 66-72 | |
Keywords | kaya identity; kaya-porter identity; crop production; greenhouse gas emission; energy intensity; mitigation; food system; agriculture; mitigation; energy; opportunities; inventory; europe; policy; land | ||||
Abstract | In order to feed the world we need innovative thinking on how to increase agricultural production whilst also mitigating climate change. Agriculture and land-use change are responsible for approximately one-third of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but hold potential for climate change mitigation but are only tangentially included in UNFCCC mitigation policies. To get a full estimate of GHG emissions from agricultural crop production both energy-based emissions and land-based emissions need to be accounted for. Furthermore, the major mitigation potential is likely to be indirect reduction of emissions i.e. reducing emissions per unit of agricultural product rather than the absolute emissions per se. Hence the system productivity must be included in the same analysis. This paper presents the Kaya-Porter identity, derived from the Maya identity, as a new way to calculate GHG emissions from agricultural crop production by deconstructing emissions into five elements; the GHG intensity of the energy used for production (kg CO2-eq./MJ), energy intensity of the production (MJ/kg dry matter), areal productivity (kg dry matter/ha), areal land-based GHG emissions (CO2-eq./ha) and area (ha). These separate elements in the identity can be targeted in emissions reduction and mitigation policies and are useful to analyse past and current trends in emissions and to explore future scenarios. Using the Kaya-Porter identity we have performed a case study on Danish crop production and find emissions to have been reduced by 12% from 1992 to 2008, whilst yields per unit area have remained constant. Both land-based emissions and energy-based emissions have decreased, mainly due to a 41% reduction in nitrogen fertilizer use. The initial identity based analysis for crop production presented here needs to be extended to include livestock to reflect the entire agricultural production and food demand sectors, thereby permitting analysis of the trade-offs between animal and plant food production, human dietary preferences and population and resulting GHG emissions. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. | ||||
Address | 2016-07-22 | ||||
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Language | English | Summary Language | Original Title | ||
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Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
ISSN | 1161-0301 | ISBN | Medium | Article | |
Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
Notes | CropM, ftnotmacsur | Approved | no | ||
Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 4581 | ||
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Author | Klein, D.; Luderer, G.; Kriegler, E.; Strefler, J.; Bauer, N.; Leimbach, M.; Popp, A.; Dietrich, J.P.; Humpenöder, F.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Edenhofer, O. | ||||
Title | The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE | Type | Journal Article | ||
Year | 2014 | Publication | Climatic Change | Abbreviated Journal | Clim. Change |
Volume | 123 | Issue | 3-4 | Pages | 705-718 |
Keywords | land-use change; bio-energy; greenhouse gases; carbon-dioxide; climate-change; constraints; emissions; economics; storage; costs | ||||
Abstract | This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS. | ||||
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Language | English | Summary Language | Original Title | ||
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ISSN | 0165-0009 | ISBN | Medium | Article | |
Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
Notes | CropM, ftnotmacsur | Approved | no | ||
Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 4529 | ||
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