|   | 
Details
   web
Records
Author Semenov, M.A.; Pilkington-Bennett, S.; Calanca, P.
Title Validation of ELPIS 1980-2010 baseline scenarios using the observed European Climate Assessment data set Type Journal Article
Year 2013 Publication Climate Research Abbreviated Journal Clim. Res.
Volume 57 Issue 1 Pages 1-9
Keywords climate change; impact assessment; downscaling; lars-wg; stochastic weather generators; diverse canadian climates; lars-wg; aafc-wg; radiation; impacts
Abstract Local-scale daily climate scenarios are required for assessment of climate change impacts. ELPIS is a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for Europe, which are based on the LARS-WG weather generator and future projections from 2 multi-model ensembles, CMIP3 and EU-ENSEMBLES. In ELPIS, the site parameters for the 1980-2010 baseline scenarios were estimated by LARS-WG using daily weather from the European Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) used in many European agricultural assessment studies. The objective of this paper was to compare ELPIS baseline scenarios with observed daily weather obtained independently from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) data set. Several statistical tests were used to compare distributions of climatic variables derived from ECA-observed daily weather and ELPIS-generated baseline scenarios. About 30% of selected sites have a difference in altitude of > 50 m compared with the CGMS grid-cell altitude that was selected to represent agricultural land within a grid-cell. Differences in altitude can explain significant Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS-test) results for distribution of daily temperature and in t-tests for temperature monthly means, because of the well-known negative correlation between temperature and elevation. For daily precipitation, the KS-test showed little difference between generated and observed data; however, the more sensitive t-test showed significant results for the sites where altitude differences were large. Approximately 11% of sites showed small positive or negative bias in monthly solar radiation, although 86% sites showed > 3 significant t-test results for monthly means. These results can be explained by differences in conversion of sunshine hours to solar radiation used in CGMS and LARS-WG. We conclude that, considering the limitations above, ELPIS baseline scenarios are suitable for agricultural impact assessments in Europe.
Address 2016-10-31
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0936-577x 1616-1572 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes (down) CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4812
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Porter, J.R.; Christensen, S.
Title Deconstructing crop processes and models via identities Type Journal Article
Year 2013 Publication Plant Cell and Environment Abbreviated Journal Plant Cell and Environment
Volume 36 Issue 11 Pages 1919-1925
Keywords Biomass; Carbon Dioxide/pharmacology; Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural/drug effects/*physiology; *Models, Biological; Kaya-Porter identity; crop models; deconstruction; resource use efficiency
Abstract This paper is part review and part opinion piece; it has three parts of increasing novelty and speculation in approach. The first presents an overview of how some of the major crop simulation models approach the issue of simulating the responses of crops to changing climatic and weather variables, mainly atmospheric CO2 concentration and increased and/or varying temperatures. It illustrates an important principle in models of a single cause having alternative effects and vice versa. The second part suggests some features, mostly missing in current crop models, that need to be included in the future, focussing on extreme events such as high temperature or extreme drought. The final opinion part is speculative but novel. It describes an approach to deconstruct resource use efficiencies into their constituent identities or elements based on the Kaya-Porter identity, each of which can be examined for responses to climate and climatic change. We give no promise that the final part is correct’, but we hope it can be a stimulation to thought, hypothesis and experiment, and perhaps a new modelling approach.
Address 2016-10-31
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0140-7791 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes (down) CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4799
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Balkovič, J.; van der Velde, M.; Schmid, E.; Skalský, R.; Khabarov, N.; Obersteiner, M.; Stürmer, B.; Xiong, W.
Title Pan-European crop modelling with EPIC: Implementation, up-scaling and regional crop yield validation Type Journal Article
Year 2013 Publication Agricultural Systems Abbreviated Journal Agricultural Systems
Volume 120 Issue Pages 61-75
Keywords EPIC; large-scale crop modelling; model performance testing; EU; climate-change; high-resolution; organic-carbon; growth-model; wheat yield; water; calibration; impacts; productivity; simulations
Abstract Justifiable usage of large-scale crop model simulations requires transparent, comprehensive and spatially extensive evaluations of their performance and associated accuracy. Simulated crop yields of a Pan-European implementation of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) crop model were satisfactorily evaluated with reported regional yield data from EUROSTAT for four major crops, including winter wheat, rainfed and irrigated maize, spring barley and winter rye. European-wide land use, elevation, soil and daily meteorological gridded data were integrated in GIS and coupled with EPIC. Default EPIC crop and biophysical process parameter values were used with some minor adjustments according to suggestions from scientific literature. The model performance was improved by spatial calculations of crop sowing densities, potential heat units, operation schedules, and nutrient application rates. EPIC performed reasonable in the simulation of regional crop yields, with long-term averages predicted better than inter-annual variability: linear regression R-2 ranged from 0.58 (maize) to 0.91 (spring barley) and relative estimation errors were between +/- 30% for most of the European regions. The modelled and reported crop yields demonstrated similar responses to driving meteorological variables. However, EPIC performed better in dry compared to wet years. A yield sensitivity analysis of crop nutrient and irrigation management factors and cultivar specific characteristics for contrasting regions in Europe revealed a range in model response and attainable yields. We also show that modelled crop yield is strongly dependent on the chosen PET method. The simulated crop yield variability was lower compared to reported crop yields. This assessment should contribute to the availability of harmonised and transparently evaluated agricultural modelling tools in the EU as well as the establishment of modelling benchmarks as a requirement for sound and ongoing policy evaluations in the agricultural and environmental domains. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Address 2016-06-01
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0308-521x ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes (down) CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4737
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Lipiec, J.; Doussan, C.; Nosalewicz, A.; Kondracka, K.
Title Effect of drought and heat stresses on plant growth and yield: a review Type Journal Article
Year 2013 Publication International Agrophysics Abbreviated Journal International Agrophysics
Volume 27 Issue 4 Pages 463-477
Keywords water stress; high temperature; root and shoot; growth; tolerance mechanisms; management practices; water-use efficiency; soil physical-properties; abscisic-acid; high-temperature; root systems; hydraulic architecture; conservation tillage; photosystem-ii; l. genotypes; drying soil
Abstract Drought and heat stresses are important threat limitations to plant growth and sustainable agriculture worldwide. Our objective is to provide a review of plant responses and adaptations to drought and elevated temperature including roots, shoots, and final yield and management approaches for alleviating adverse effects of the stresses based mostly on recent literature. The sections of the paper deal with plant responses including root growth, transpiration, photosynthesis, water use efficiency, phenotypic flexibility, accumulation of compounds of low molecular mass (eg proline and gibberellins), and expression of some genes and proteins for increasing the tolerance to the abiotic stresses. Soil and crop management practices to alleviate negative effects of drought and heat stresses are also discussed. Investigations involving determination of plant assimilate partitioning, phenotypic plasticity, and identification of most stress- tolerant plant genotypes are essential for understanding the complexity of the responses and for future plant breeding. The adverse effects of drought and heat stress can be mitigated by soil management practices, crop establishment, and foliar application of growth regulators by maintaining an appropriate level of water in the leaves due to osmotic adjustment and stomatal performance.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0236-8722 ISBN Medium Review
Area Expedition Conference
Notes (down) CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4608
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.; Trnka, M.; Fronzek, S.; Carter, T.R.; Kahiluoto, H.
Title Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change Type Journal Article
Year 2013 Publication Ecology and Evolution Abbreviated Journal Ecol. Evol.
Volume 3 Issue 12 Pages 4197-4214
Keywords Adaptation; agroclimatic indicator; barley; crop simulation model; cultivar response diversity
Abstract THIS PAPER AIMS: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2045-7758 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes (down) CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4576
Permanent link to this record