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| Author | Mittenzwei, K.; Persson, T.; Höglind, M.; Kværnø, S. | ||||
| Title | Combined effects of climate change and policy uncertainty on the agricultural sector in Norway | Type | Journal Article | ||
| Year | 2017 | Publication | Agricultural Systems | Abbreviated Journal | Agric. Syst. |
| Volume | 153 | Issue | Pages | 118-126 | |
| Keywords | Climate change; Norway; Agriculture; Policy uncertainty; Modelling; LINGRA; CSM-CERES-Wheat; DSSAT | ||||
| Abstract | Highlights • A framework to study climate and policy uncertainty in agriculture is presented. • Combining both sources of uncertainty has ambiguous effects on agriculture. • Uncertainty needs to be highlighted in modelling tools for policy analysis. Abstract Farmers are exposed to climate change and uncertainty about how that change will develop. As farm incomes, in Norway and elsewhere, greatly depend on government subsidies, the risk of a policy change constitutes an additional uncertainty source. Hence, climate and policy uncertainty could substantially impact agricultural production and farm income. However, these sources of uncertainty have, so far, rarely been combined in food production analyses. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of a combination of policy and climate uncertainty on agricultural production, land use, and social welfare in Norway. Output yield distributions of spring wheat and timothy, a major forage grass, from simulations with the weather-driven crop models, CSM-CERES-Wheat and, LINGRA, were processed in the a stochastic version Jordmod, a price-endogenous spatial economic sector model of the Norwegian agriculture. To account for potential effects of climate uncertainty within a given future greenhouse gas emission scenario on farm profitability, effects on conditions that represented the projected climate for 2050 under the emission scenario A1B from the 4th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and four Global Climate Models (GCM) was investigated. The uncertainty about the level of payment rates at the time farmers make their management decisions was handled by varying the distribution of payment rates applied in the Jordmod model. These changes were based on the change in the overall level of agricultural support in the past. Three uncertainty scenarios were developed and tested: one with climate change uncertainty, another with payment rate uncertainty, and a third where both types of uncertainty were combined. The three scenarios were compared with results from a deterministic scenario where crop yields and payment rates were constant. Climate change resulted in on average 9% lower cereal production, unchanged grass production and more volatile crop yield as well as 4% higher farm incomes on average compared to the deterministic scenario. The scenario with a combination of climate change and policy uncertainty increased the mean farm income more than a scenario with only one source of uncertainty. On the other hand, land use and farm labour were negatively affected under these conditions compared to the deterministic case. Highlighting the potential influence of climate change and policy uncertainty on the performance of the farm sector our results underline the potential error in neglecting either of these two uncertainties in studies of agricultural production, land use and welfare. | ||||
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| ISSN | 0308521x | ISBN | Medium | ||
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CropM, TradeM | Approved | no | ||
| Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 4986 | ||
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| Author | Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Åby, B.A.; Persson, T.; Höglind, M.; Mittenzwei, K. | ||||
| Title | Combining models to estimate the impacts of future climate scenarios on feed supply, greenhouse gas emissions and economic performance on dairy farms in Norway | Type | Journal Article | ||
| Year | 2017 | Publication | Agricultural Systems | Abbreviated Journal | Agric. Syst. |
| Volume | 157 | Issue | Pages | 157-169 | |
| Keywords | Climate change; Dairy farming; Dry matter yield; Economics; Greenhouse gas emission; Modelling | ||||
| Abstract | • This study combines crop, livestock and economic models. • Models interaction is through use of relevant input and output variables. • Future climate change will result in increased grass and wheat dry matter yields. • Changes in grass, wheat and milk yields in future reduce farm emissions intensity. • Changes in future dry matter yields and emissions lead to increased profitability. There is a scientific consensus that the future climate change will affect grass and crop dry matter (DM) yields. Such yield changes may entail alterations to farm management practices to fulfill the feed requirements and reduce the farm greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from dairy farms. While a large number of studies have focused on the impacts of projected climate change on a single farm output (e.g. GHG emissions or economic performance), several attempts have been made to combine bio-economic systems models with GHG accounting frameworks. In this study, we aimed to determine the physical impacts of future climate scenarios on grass and wheat DM yields, and demonstrate the effects such changes in future feed supply may have on farm GHG emissions and decision-making processes. For this purpose, we combined four models: BASGRA and CSM-CERES-Wheat models for simulating forage grass DM and wheat DM grain yields respectively; HolosNor for estimating the farm GHG emissions; and JORDMOD for calculating the impacts of changes in the climate and management on land use and farm economics. Four locations, with varying climate and soil conditions were included in the study: south-east Norway, south-west Norway, central Norway and northern Norway. Simulations were carried out for baseline (1961–1990) and future (2046–2065) climate conditions (projections based on two global climate models and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B GHG emission scenario), and for production conditions with and without a milk quota. The GHG emissions intensities (kilogram carbon dioxide equivalent: kgCO2e emissions per kg fat and protein corrected milk: FPCM) varied between 0.8 kg and 1.23 kg CO2e (kg FPCM)− 1, with the lowest and highest emissions found in central Norway and south-east Norway, respectively. Emission intensities were generally lower under future compared to baseline conditions due mainly to higher future milk yields and to some extent to higher crop yields. The median seasonal above-ground timothy grass yield varied between 11,000 kg and 16,000 kg DM ha− 1 and was higher in all projected future climate conditions than in the baseline. The spring wheat grain DM yields simulated for the same weather conditions within each climate projection varied between 2200 kg and 6800 kg DM ha− 1. Similarly, the farm profitability as expressed by total national land rents varied between 1900 million Norwegian krone (NOK) for median yields under baseline climate conditions up to 3900 million NOK for median yield under future projected climate conditions. |
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CropM, LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur | Approved | no | ||
| Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 5172 | ||
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| Author | Olesen, J.E.; Niemeyer, S.; Ceglar, A.; Roggero, P.-P.; Lehtonen, H.; Schönhart, M.; Kipling, R. | ||||
| Title | Section 5.3. Agriculture | Type | Book Chapter | ||
| Year | 2017 | Publication | Abbreviated Journal | ||
| Volume | Issue | Pages | 223-243 | ||
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| Publisher | European Environmental Agency | Place of Publication | Copenhagen, Denmark | Editor | |
| Language | Summary Language | Original Title | |||
| Series Editor | Series Title | Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016. An indicator-based report | Abbreviated Series Title | ||
| Series Volume | EEA Report (1/2017) | Series Issue | Edition | ||
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CropM, LiveM, TradeM | Approved | no | ||
| Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 4964 | ||
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| Author | Lai, R.; Arca, P.; Lagomarsino, A.; Cappai, C.; Seddaiu, G.; Demurtas, C.E.; Roggero, P.P. | ||||
| Title | Manure fertilization increases soil respiration and creates a negative carbon budget in a Mediterranean maize (Zea mays L.)-based cropping system | Type | Journal Article | ||
| Year | 2017 | Publication | Catena | Abbreviated Journal | Catena |
| Volume | 151 | Issue | Pages | 202-212 | |
| Keywords | Biomass C turnover GHG emission Microbial activity Soil moisture | ||||
| Abstract | Agronomic research is important to identify suitable options for improving soil carbon (C) sequestration and reducing soil CO2 emissions. Therefore, the objectives of this study were i) to analyse the on-farm effects of different nitrogen fertilization sources on soil respiration, ii) to explore the effect of fertilization on soil respiration sensitivity to soil temperature (T) and iii) to assess the effect of the different fertilization regimes on the soil C balance. We hypothesized that i) the soil CO2 emission dynamics in Mediterranean irrigated cropping systems were mainly affected by fertilization management and T and ii) fertilization affected the soil C budget via different C inputs and CO2 efflux. Four fertilization systems (farmyard manure, cattle slurry, cattle slurry + mineral, and mineral) were compared in a double-crop rotation based on silage maize (Zea mays L.) and a mixture of Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.) and oats (Avena sativa L.). The research was performed in the dairy district of Arborea, in the coastal zone of Sardinia (Italy), from May 2011 to May 2012. The soil was a Psammentic Palexeralfs with a sandy texture (940 g sand kg− 1). The soil total respiration (SR), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), T and soil water content (SWC) were simultaneously measured in situ. The soil C balance was computed considering the Rh C losses and the soil C inputs from fertilizer and crop residues. The results showed that the maximum soil CO2 emission rates soon after the application of organic fertilizer reached values up to 12 μmol m− 2 s− 1. On average, the manure fertilizer showed significantly higher CO2 emissions, which resulted in a negative annual C balance (− 2.9 t ha− 1). T also affected the soil respiration temporal dynamics during the summer, consistently with results obtained in other temperate climatic regions that are characterized by wet summers and contrary to results from rainfed Mediterranean systems where the summer SR and Rh are constrained by the low SWC. The sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature significantly increased with C input from fertilizer. In conclusion, this research supported the hypotheses tested. Furthermore, the results indicated that i) soil CO2 efflux was significantly affected by fertilization management and T, and ii) fertilization with manure increased the soil respiration and resulted in a significantly negative soil C budget. This latter finding could be primarily explained by a reduction in productivity and, consequently, in crop residue with organic fertilization alone as compared to mineral, by the favourable SWC and T for mineralization, and by the sandy soil texture, which hindered the formation of macroaggregates and hence soil C stabilization, making fertilizer organic inputs highly susceptible to mineralization. | ||||
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| ISSN | 0341-8162 | ISBN | Medium | ||
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CropM, LiveM, ft_MACSUR | Approved | no | ||
| Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 4931 | ||
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| Author | Ruiu, L.M.; Maurizi, S.; Sassu, S.; Seddaiu, G.; Zuin, O.; Blackmore, C.; Roggero, P.P. | ||||
| Title | Re-Staging La Rasgioni: lessons learned from transforming a traditional form of conflict resolution to engage stakeholders in agricultural water governance | Type | Journal Article | ||
| Year | 2017 | Publication | Water | Abbreviated Journal | Water |
| Volume | 9 | Issue | 4 | Pages | 297 |
| Keywords | co-researching; dairy farming; ecosystem perception; systemic governance; governance learning; irrigation; knowledge co-production; nitrate pollution; social learning; stakeholders; theatre | ||||
| Abstract | This paper presents an informal process inspired by a public practice of conflict mediation used until a few decades ago in Gallura (NE Sardinia, Italy), named La Rasgioni (The Reason). The aim is twofold: (i) to introduce an innovative method that translates the complexity of water-related conflicts into a “dialogical tool”, aimed at enhancing social learning by adopting theatrical techniques; and (ii) to report the outcomes that emerged from the application of this method in Arborea, the main dairy cattle district and the only nitrate-vulnerable zone in Sardinia, to mediate contrasting positions between local entrepreneurs and representatives of the relevant institutions. We discuss our results in the light of four pillars, adopted as research lenses in the International research Project CADWAGO (Climate Change Adaptation and Water Governance), which consider the specific “social–ecological” components of the Arborea system, climate change adaptability in water governance institutions and organizations, systemic governance (relational) practices, and governance learning. The combination of the four CADWAGO pillars and La Rasgioni created an innovative dialogical space that enabled stakeholders and researchers to collectively identify barriers and opportunities for effective governance practices. Potential wider implications and applications of La Rasgioni process are also discussed in the paper. | ||||
| Address | 2017-04-24 | ||||
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| ISSN | 2073-4441 | ISBN | Medium | Article | |
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CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur | Approved | yes | ||
| Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 4944 | ||
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