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Author Porter, J.R.; Christensen, S. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Deconstructing crop processes and models via identities Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication Plant Cell and Environment Abbreviated Journal Plant Cell and Environment  
  Volume 36 Issue 11 Pages 1919-1925  
  Keywords Biomass; Carbon Dioxide/pharmacology; Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural/drug effects/*physiology; *Models, Biological; Kaya-Porter identity; crop models; deconstruction; resource use efficiency  
  Abstract This paper is part review and part opinion piece; it has three parts of increasing novelty and speculation in approach. The first presents an overview of how some of the major crop simulation models approach the issue of simulating the responses of crops to changing climatic and weather variables, mainly atmospheric CO2 concentration and increased and/or varying temperatures. It illustrates an important principle in models of a single cause having alternative effects and vice versa. The second part suggests some features, mostly missing in current crop models, that need to be included in the future, focussing on extreme events such as high temperature or extreme drought. The final opinion part is speculative but novel. It describes an approach to deconstruct resource use efficiencies into their constituent identities or elements based on the Kaya-Porter identity, each of which can be examined for responses to climate and climatic change. We give no promise that the final part is correct’, but we hope it can be a stimulation to thought, hypothesis and experiment, and perhaps a new modelling approach.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0140-7791 ISBN Medium (up) Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4799  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Rosenzweig, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Ruane, A.C.; Müller, C.; Arneth, A.; Boote, K.J.; Folberth, C.; Glotter, M.; Khabarov, N.; Neumann, K.; Piontek, F.; Pugh, T.A.; Schmid, E.; Stehfest, E.; Yang, H.; Jones, J.W. doi  openurl
  Title Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Abbreviated Journal Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.  
  Volume 111 Issue 9 Pages 3268-3273  
  Keywords Agriculture/*methods/statistics & numerical data; *Climate Change; Computer Simulation; Crops, Agricultural/*growth & development; Forecasting; Geography; *Models, Theoretical; Nitrogen/*analysis; Risk Assessment; Temperature; AgMIP; Isi-mip; agriculture; climate impacts; food security  
  Abstract Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1091-6490 (Electronic) 0027-8424 (Linking) ISBN Medium (up) Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4801  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Müller, C.; Frieler, K.; Konzmann, M.; Gerten, D.; Glotter, M.; Flörke, M.; Wada, Y.; Best, N.; Eisner, S.; Fekete, B.M.; Folberth, C.; Foster, I.; Gosling, S.N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Ludwig, F.; Masaki, Y.; Olin, S.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Satoh, Y.; Schmid, E.; Stacke, T.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Abbreviated Journal Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.  
  Volume 111 Issue 9 Pages 3239-3244  
  Keywords Agricultural Irrigation/economics/*methods; Agriculture/economics/*methods; Carbon Dioxide/analysis; *Climate Change; Computer Simulation; Forecasting; *Models, Theoretical; Water Supply/*statistics & numerical data; adaptation; agriculture; hydrology; uncertainty  
  Abstract We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0027-8424 1091-6490 ISBN Medium (up) Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4790  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Dietrich, J.P.; Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Muller, C. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Forecasting technological change in agriculture-An endogenous implementation in a global, and use model Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Technological Forecasting and Social Change Abbreviated Journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change  
  Volume 81 Issue Pages 236-249  
  Keywords Technological change; Land use; Agricultural productivity; Land use; intensity; Research and development; land-use; research expenditures; productivity growth; impact; deforestation; forest; yield; Business & Economics; Public Administration  
  Abstract Technological change in agriculture plays a decisive role for meeting future demands for agricultural goods. However, up to now, agricultural sector models and models on land use change have used technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt towards an endogenous implementation based on a measure of agricultural land use intensity. We relate this measure to empirical data on investments in technological change. Our estimated yield elasticity with respect to research investments is 029 and production costs per area increase linearly with an increasing yield level. Implemented in the global land use model MAgPIE (”Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”) this approach provides estimates of future yield growth. Highest future yield increases are required in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Our validation with FAO data for the period 1995-2005 indicates that the model behavior is in line with observations. By comparing two scenarios on forest conservation we show that protecting sensitive forest areas in the future is possible but requires substantial investments into technological change. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0040-1625 ISBN Medium (up) Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4789  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Xiao, D.P.; Tao, F.L. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Contributions of cultivar shift, management practice and climate change to maize yield in North China Plain in 1981-2009 Type Journal Article
  Year 2016 Publication International Journal of Biometeorology Abbreviated Journal International Journal of Biometeorology  
  Volume 60 Issue 7 Pages 1111-1122  
  Keywords Adaptation; Agronomic practice; Maize yield; Negative impact; Climate; change; model; variability; performance; simulation; province; apsim; gaps  
  Abstract The impact of climate change on crop yield is compounded by cultivar shifts and agronomic management practices. To determine the relative contributions of climate change, cultivar shift, and management practice to changes in maize (Zea mays L.) yield in the past three decades, detailed field data for 1981-2009 from four representative experimental stations in North China Plain (NCP) were analyzed via model simulation. The four representative experimental stations are geographically and climatologically different, represent the typical cropping system in the study area, and have more complete weather/crop records for the period of 1981-2009. The results showed that while the shift from traditional to modern cultivar increased yield by 23.9-40.3 %, new fertilizer management increased yield by 3.3-8.6 %. However, the trends in climate variables for 1981-2009 reduced maize yield by 15-30 % in the study area. Among the main climate variables, solar radiation had the largest effect on maize yield, followed by temperature and then precipitation. While a significant decline in solar radiation in 1981-2009 (maybe due to air pollution) reduced yield by 12-24 %, a significant increase in temperature reduced yield by 3-9 %. In contrast, a non-significant increase in precipitation during the maize growth period increased yield by 0.9-3 % at three of the four investigated stations. However, a decline in precipitation reduced yield by 3 % in the remaining station. The study revealed that although the shift from traditional to modern cultivars and agronomic management practices contributed most to the increase in maize yield, the negative impact of climate change was large enough to offset 46-67 % of the trend in the observed yields in the past three decades in NCP. The reduction in solar radiation, especially in the most critical period of maize growth, limited the process of photosynthesis and thereby further reduced maize yield.  
  Address 2016-09-13  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0020-7128 ISBN Medium (up) Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4779  
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