Abstract: This paper is part review and part opinion piece; it has three parts of increasing novelty and speculation in approach. The first presents an overview of how some of the major crop simulation models approach the issue of simulating the responses of crops to changing climatic and weather variables, mainly atmospheric CO2 concentration and increased and/or varying temperatures. It illustrates an important principle in models of a single cause having alternative effects and vice versa. The second part suggests some features, mostly missing in current crop models, that need to be included in the future, focussing on extreme events such as high temperature or extreme drought. The final opinion part is speculative but novel. It describes an approach to deconstruct resource use efficiencies into their constituent identities or elements based on the Kaya-Porter identity, each of which can be examined for responses to climate and climatic change. We give no promise that the final part is correct’, but we hope it can be a stimulation to thought, hypothesis and experiment, and perhaps a new modelling approach.

Abstract: Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) pollution resulting from the use of synthetic fertilizers represents a significant contribution to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, providing a rationale for reduced use of nitrogen (N) fertilizers. Nitrogen limitation results in extensive systems rebalancing that remodels metabolism and defence processes. To analyse the regulation underpinning these responses, barley (Horedeum vulgare) seedlings were grown for 7 d under N-deficient conditions until net photosynthesis was 50% lower than in N-replete controls. Although shoot growth was decreased there was no evidence for the induction of oxidative stress despite lower total concentrations of N-containing antioxidants. Nitrogen-deficient barley leaves were rich in amino acids, sugars and tricarboxylic acid cycle intermediates. In contrast to N-replete leaves one-day-old nymphs of the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae) failed to reach adulthood when transferred to N-deficient barley leaves. Transcripts encoding cell, sugar and nutrient signalling, protein degradation and secondary metabolism were over-represented in N-deficient leaves while those associated with hormone metabolism were similar under both nutrient regimes with the exception of mRNAs encoding proteins involved in auxin metabolism and responses. Significant similarities were observed between the N-limited barley leaf transcriptome and that of aphid-infested Arabidopsis leaves. These findings not only highlight significant similarities between biotic and abiotic stress signalling cascades but also identify potential targets for increasing aphid resistance with implications for the development of sustainable agriculture.

Abstract: We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.