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Trnka, M., Feng, S., Semenov, M. A., Olesen, J. E., Kersebaum, K. C., Roetter, R. P., et al. (2019). Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas. Sci. Adv., 5(9), eaau2406.
Abstract: Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near- simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas.
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Żarski, J., Dudek, S., Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R., Bojar, W., Knopik, L., & Żarski, W. (2014). Agroklimatologiczna ocena opadów atmosferycznych okresu wegetacyjnego w rejonie Bydgoszczy (Agro-climatological assessment of the growing season rainfall in the Bydgoszcz region). Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich (Infrastructure and Ecology of Rural Areas), Ii(3), 643–656.
Abstract: The aim of the research was an agro-climatologic assessment of the amount of rainfall on a local scale, mainly aimed to identify trends in their changes and a possible rise in their variability over time. In the studies also we wanted to demonstrate the impact of the amount of rainfall in the region of Bydgoszcz on the yield of some crops. Material for the study consists of rainfall measurements, carried out in a stand- ard way in the years 1981-2010 at the Research Station of the University of Technology and Life Sciences in Bydgoszcz. Station is located in the village of Mochle, located approximately 20 km from the city centre (φ=53013’ N, λ=17051’E, h=98.5 m above sea level) in sparsely urbanized and industrialized area. We also used data of the yield of selected crops (potato, barley, corn for grain, legumes), from the production in the region of Kujawy and Pomorze as well as from our own experimental field. It has been shown that the average long-term rainfall during the growing season allows for classifying Bydgoszcz region as the area with the lowest rainfall in Poland. Analyzed rainfalls were characterized by a very high variability in time, resulting in climatic risk of plant growing. The largest temporal variability related to August. However, there was no extension of the time variability of rainfall totals in the period 1996-2010, as compared to the period 1981-1995. The sole significant growth trend during the period 1981-2010 was found in May. It appeared a tendency to a decline in summer rainfall totals (VI-VIII) in the annual rainfall total, which is consistent with the IPCC projections. Rainfall totals had highly signi cant impact on yields of selected crops. The highest correlation coefficients were found in relations crop-rainfall in the months of increased water needs of plants. Better correlations rainfall-crop were found using data from the production scale as compared with the scale of experimental field.
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