Records |
Author |
Conradt, T.; Gornott, C.; Wechsung, F. |
Title |
Extending and improving regionalized winter wheat and silage maize yield regression models for Germany: Enhancing the predictive skill by panel definition through cluster analysis |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Volume |
216 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
68-81 |
Keywords |
cluster analysis; crop yield estimation; germany; multivariate regression; silage maize; winter wheat; climate-change; canadian prairies; crop yield; temperature; responses; environments; variability; cultivar; china |
Abstract |
Regional agricultural yield assessments allowing for weather effect quantifications are a valuable basis for deriving scenarios of climate change effects and developing adaptation strategies. Assessing weather effects by statistical methods is a classical approach, but for obtaining robust results many details deserve attention and require individual decisions as is demonstrated in this paper. We evaluated regression models for annual yield changes of winter wheat and silage maize in more than 300 German counties and revised them to increase their predictive power. A major effort of this study was, however, aggregating separately estimated time series models (STSM) into panel data models (PDM) based on cluster analyses. The cluster analyses were based on the per-county estimates of STSM parameters. The original STSM formulations (adopted from a parallel study) contained also the non-meteorological input variables acreage and fertilizer price. The models were revised to use only weather variables as estimation basis. These consisted of time aggregates of radiation, precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration. Altering the input variables generally increased the predictive power of the models as did their clustering into PDM. For each crop, five alternative clusterings were produced by three different methods, and similarities between their spatial structures seem to confirm the existence of objective clusters about common model parameters. Observed smooth transitions of STSM parameter values in space suggest, however, spatial autocorrelation effects that could also be modeled explicitly. Both clustering and autocorrelation approaches can effectively reduce the noise in parameter estimation through targeted aggregation of input data. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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English |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0168-1923 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4709 |
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Author |
Semenov, M.A.; Pilkington-Bennett, S.; Calanca, P. |
Title |
Validation of ELPIS 1980-2010 baseline scenarios using the observed European Climate Assessment data set |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
Volume |
57 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
1-9 |
Keywords |
climate change; impact assessment; downscaling; lars-wg; stochastic weather generators; diverse canadian climates; lars-wg; aafc-wg; radiation; impacts |
Abstract |
Local-scale daily climate scenarios are required for assessment of climate change impacts. ELPIS is a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for Europe, which are based on the LARS-WG weather generator and future projections from 2 multi-model ensembles, CMIP3 and EU-ENSEMBLES. In ELPIS, the site parameters for the 1980-2010 baseline scenarios were estimated by LARS-WG using daily weather from the European Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) used in many European agricultural assessment studies. The objective of this paper was to compare ELPIS baseline scenarios with observed daily weather obtained independently from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) data set. Several statistical tests were used to compare distributions of climatic variables derived from ECA-observed daily weather and ELPIS-generated baseline scenarios. About 30% of selected sites have a difference in altitude of > 50 m compared with the CGMS grid-cell altitude that was selected to represent agricultural land within a grid-cell. Differences in altitude can explain significant Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS-test) results for distribution of daily temperature and in t-tests for temperature monthly means, because of the well-known negative correlation between temperature and elevation. For daily precipitation, the KS-test showed little difference between generated and observed data; however, the more sensitive t-test showed significant results for the sites where altitude differences were large. Approximately 11% of sites showed small positive or negative bias in monthly solar radiation, although 86% sites showed > 3 significant t-test results for monthly means. These results can be explained by differences in conversion of sunshine hours to solar radiation used in CGMS and LARS-WG. We conclude that, considering the limitations above, ELPIS baseline scenarios are suitable for agricultural impact assessments in Europe. |
Address |
2016-10-31 |
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English |
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ISSN |
0936-577x 1616-1572 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4812 |
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Author |
Eza, U.; Shtiliyanova, A.; Borras, D.; Bellocchi, G.; Carrère, P.; Martin, R. |
Title |
An open platform to assess vulnerabilities to climate change: An application to agricultural systems |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Ecological Informatics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecological Informatics |
Volume |
30 |
Issue |
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Pages |
389-396 |
Keywords |
climate change; grasslands; modeling platform; vulnerability assessment; pasture simulation-model; software component; solar-radiation; crop production; change impacts; adaptation; indicator; makers |
Abstract |
Numerous climate futures are now available from global climate models. Translation of climate data such as precipitation and temperatures into ecologically meaningful outputs for managers and planners is the next frontier. We describe a model-based open platform to assess vulnerabilities of agricultural systems to climate change on pixel-wise data. The platform includes a simulation modeling engine and is suited to work with NetCDF format of input and output files. In a case study covering a region (Auvergne) in the Massif Central of France, the platform is configured to characterize climate (occurrence of arid conditions in historical and projected climate records), soils and human management, and is then used to assess the vulnerability to climate change of grassland productivity (downscaled to a fine scale). We demonstrate how using climate time series, and process-based simulations vulnerabilities can be defined at fine spatial scales relevant to farmers and land managers, and can be incorporated into management frameworks. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1574-9541 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Article |
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Notes |
CropM LiveM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4708 |
Permanent link to this record |
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Author |
Özkan, Ş.; Hill, J.; Cullen, B. |
Title |
Effect of climate variability on pasture-based dairy feeding systems in south-east Australia |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Animal Production Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Animal Production Science |
Volume |
55 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
1106-1116 |
Keywords |
carry-forward surplus; conserved-hay; probability; winter deficit; grown forage consumption; new-zealand; nutritive characteristics; interannual variation; botanical composition; herbage accumulation; crop; systems; cows; management; profit |
Abstract |
The Australian dairy industry relies primarily on pasture for its feed supply. However, the variability in climate affects plant growth, leading to uncertainty in dryland pasture supply. This paper models the impact of climate variability on pasture production and examines the potential of two pasture-based dairy feeding systems: (1) to experience winter deficits; (2) to carry forward the conserved pasture surpluses as silage for future use; and (3) to conserve pasture surpluses as hay. The two dairy feeding systems examined were a traditional perennial ryegrass-based feeding system (ryegrass max. – RM) and a system that incorporated double cropping into the perennial ryegrass pasture base (complementary forage – CF). The conditional probability of the RM and CF systems to generate pasture deficits in winter were 94% and 96%, respectively. Both systems could carry forward the surplus silage into the following lactation almost once in every 4-5 years with the RM system performing slightly better than the CF system. The proportions of the grain-based concentrates fed in the two systems were 25% and 27% for the RM and CF systems, respectively. This study suggests that double-cropping systems have the potential to provide high-quality feed to support the feed gaps when pasture is not available due to increased variability in climatic conditions. |
Address |
2015-09-23 |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1836-5787 |
ISBN |
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Article |
Area |
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Notes |
LiveM |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4689 |
Permanent link to this record |
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Author |
Bulak, P.; Walkiewicz, A.; Brzezińska, M. |
Title |
Plant growth regulators-assisted phytoextraction |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Biologia Plantarum |
Abbreviated Journal |
Biol. Plant. |
Volume |
58 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
1-8 |
Keywords |
auxins; cytokinins; gibberelins; heavy metals; phytoremediation; pollutants; Zea-mays l.; heavy-metals; Pteris-vittata; organic-acids; molecular-mechanisms; contaminated soils; Sedum-alfredii; lead uptake; hyperaccumulation; phytoremediation |
Abstract |
Plant growth regulators (PRG)-assisted phytoremediation is a technique that could enhance the yield of heavy metal accumulation in plant tissues. So far, a small number of experiments have helped identify three groups of plant hormones that may be useful for this purpose: auxins, cytokinins, and gibberellins. Studies have shown that these hormones positively affect the degree of accumulation of metallic impurities and improve the growth and stress resistance of plants. This review summarizes the present knowledge about PGRs’ impact on phytoextraction yield. |
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English |
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Series Editor |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0006-3134 |
ISBN |
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Review |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4515 |
Permanent link to this record |