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Özkan Gülzari, Ş., & Kipling, R. (2017). Understanding the potential of existing models to characterize animal health conditions and estimate greenhouse gas emissions (Vol. 10).
Abstract: The primary objective of this study was to assess the status and priorities for future development in modelling of the impacts of animal health on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It also aimed to facilitate communication between experimental researchers and modellers by defining a list of parameters that are needed to model livestock health and disease, and the impact of health conditions on GHG emissions. The summary presented here provides a brief overview of ongoing work, which the L2.1/L2.2 partners, with support from the Global Research Alliance Animal Health Network (GRA AHN), is currently developing into a paper for publication in a peer reviewed journal.
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Leolini, L., Moriondo, M., De Cortazar-Atauri, I., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Nendel, C., Roggero, P. P., et al. (2017). Modelling different cropping systems (Vol. 10).
Abstract: Grapevine is a worldwide valuable crop characterized by a high economic importance for the production of high quality wines. However, the impact of climate change on the narrow climate niches in which grapevine is currently cultivated constitute a great risk for future suitability of grapevine. In this context, grape simulation models are considered promising tools for their contribution to investigate plant behavior in different environments. In this study, six models developed for simulating grapevine growth and development were tested by focusing on their performances in simulating main grapevine processes under two calibration levels: minimum and full calibration. This would help to evaluate major limitations/strength points of these models, especially in the view of their application to climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Preliminary results from two models (GrapeModel and STICS) showed contrasting abilities in reproducing the observed data depending on the site, the year and the target variable considered. These results suggest that a limited dataset for model calibration would lead to poor simulation outputs. However, a more complete interpretation and detailed analysis of the results will be provided when considering the other models simulations.
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Biewald, A., Sinabell, F., Lotze-Campen, H., Zimmermann, A., & Lehtonen, H. (2017). Global Representative Agricultural Pathways for Europe (Vol. 10).
Abstract: Agricultural elements have been covered in the scenario process on shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) incompletely and pathways have not been specified for the future development of the European Union. We will therefore devise a general framework on European Representative Agricultural Pathways (EU-RAPs), where we cover different aspects of agricultural development, as for example European and domestic agricultural and environmental policies, or different livestock and crop management systems, and describe future developments of the confederation of the countries of the European Union. For the agricultural elements we distinguish between elements that can be derived from the definitions in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, as for example irrigation efficiencies which are linked to technological development, and elements that have to be newly devised such as the development of the Common Agricultural Policy. For the future of the European Union we develop five different worlds which correspond to the SSPs. Finally both frameworks are combined.
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Janssen, S. (2017). Open data journal as a publishing and data sharing mechanism (Vol. 10).
Abstract: This deliverable lays out the work as done as part of MACSUR CropM on data publishing, with the focus on improving data sharing and discovery and have shared data curation for future use. As part of the first phase MACSUR, The Open Data Journal for Agricultural Research (www.odjar.org) was started and documented in Deliverable C2.2 as part of Crop M. Odjar.org mainly focuses on long term data archival and citation of data sets, as input and outputs to the modelling work, as part of MACSUR, lead by Wageningen UR This deliverable is a short update on the process of creating such a data journal by demonstrating a set of articles published through the journal, some of which are based on MACSUR results, as well as related networks. The deliverable does not further explain what the journal is, as this is part of the previous deliverable.
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Jancic, M. (2016). Climate change adaptation in maize production in Serbia (Vol. 9 C6 -).
Abstract: Climate change is noticed and well established phenomenon, described as change in the statistical properties of the climate system, considered over long period of time, regardless of cause (Houghton, 1996). This change has been monitored on global (Rosenzweig et al., 1994; Harrison et al., 1995; Wolf et al., 1995; Watson et al., 1996; Downing et al., 2000; Sathaye et al., 1997; Sirotenko et al., 1997) and regional scale (Alexandrov et al., 2002; Lalic et al., 2012; Vučetić, 2011) by researchers, organizations and part of various programmes (IPCC, UNESCO Climate Change Initiative). In a same time, it was analysed change in agroclimatic indices, soil and water balance, crop development and yield, that quantify climate change impact on agricultural production. In recent regional studies and research projects (COST 734, 2008; ADAGIO, 2009), it was estimated and quantified climate change impact on yield and development in crop production of Central and Eastern European countries and Mediterranean region. The research showed a decrease in yield in several major crops, important in national food production and part of economy. A high variability in yield from year to year and decrease in yield was showed for most cereals.
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