| Records |
| Author |
Bassu, S.; Brisson, N.; Durand, J.-L.; Boote, K.; Lizaso, J.; Jones, J.W.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Adam, M.; Baron, C.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Boogaard, H.; Conijn, S.; Corbeels, M.; Deryng, D.; De Sanctis, G.; Gayler, S.; Grassini, P.; Hatfield, J.; Hoek, S.; Izaurralde, C.; Jongschaap, R.; Kemanian, A.R.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kim, S.-H.; Kumar, N.S.; Makowski, D.; Müller, C.; Nendel, C.; Priesack, E.; Pravia, M.V.; Sau, F.; Shcherbak, I.; Tao, F.; Teixeira, E.; Timlin, D.; Waha, K. |
| Title |
How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
| Volume |
20 |
Issue |
7 |
Pages |
2301-2320 |
Keywords  |
Carbon Dioxide/metabolism; *Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural/growth & development/metabolism; Geography; Models, Biological; Temperature; Water/*metabolism; Zea mays/*growth & development/*metabolism; AgMIP; [Co2]; climate; maize; model intercomparison; simulation; uncertainty |
| Abstract |
Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2 ], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(-1) per °C. Doubling [CO2 ] from 360 to 720 μmol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2 ] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2 ] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information. |
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English |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1354-1013 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4510 |
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| Author |
Ma, S.; Lardy, R.; Graux, A.-I.; Ben Touhami, H.; Klumpp, K.; Martin, R.; Bellocchi, G. |
| Title |
Regional-scale analysis of carbon and water cycles on managed grassland systems |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
| Volume |
72 |
Issue |
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Pages |
356-371 |
| Keywords |
carbon flux; eddy flux measurements; model evaluation; pasture simulation model (pasim); water balance; pasture simulation-model; nitrous-oxide emissions; primary productivity npp; comparing global-models; net ecosystem exchange; greenhouse-gas balance; climate-change; agricultural systems; co2 exchange; european grasslands |
| Abstract |
Predicting regional and global carbon (C) and water dynamics on grasslands has become of major interest, as grasslands are one of the most widespread vegetation types worldwide, providing a number of ecosystem services (such as forage production and C storage). The present study is a contribution to a regional-scale analysis of the C and water cycles on managed grasslands. The mechanistic biogeochemical model PaSim (Pasture Simulation model) was evaluated at 12 grassland sites in Europe. A new parameterization was obtained on a common set of eco-physiological parameters, which represented an improvement of previous parameterization schemes (essentially obtained via calibration at specific sites). We found that C and water fluxes estimated with the parameter set are in good agreement with observations. The model with the new parameters estimated that European grassland are a sink of C with 213 g C m(-2) yr(-1), which is close to the observed net ecosystem exchange (NEE) flux of the studied sites (185 g C m(-2) yr(-1) on average). The estimated yearly average gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RECO) for all of the study sites are 1220 and 1006 g C m(-2) yr(-1), respectively, in agreement with observed average GPP (1230 g C m(-2) yr(-1)) and RECO (1046 g C m(-2) yr(-1)). For both variables aggregated on a weekly basis, the root mean square error (RMSE) was similar to 5-16 g C week(-1) across the study sites, while the goodness of fit (R-2) was similar to 0.4-0.9. For evapotranspiration (ET), the average value of simulated ET (415 mmyr(-1)) for all sites and years is close to the average value of the observed ET (451 mm yr(-1)) by flux towers (on a weekly basis, RMSE similar to 2-8 mm week(-1); R-2 = 0.3-0.9). However, further model development is needed to better represent soil water dynamics under dry conditions and soil temperature in winter. A quantification of the uncertainties introduced by spatially generalized parameter values in C and water exchange estimates is also necessary. In addition, some uncertainties in the input management data call for the need to improve the quality of the observational system. |
| Address |
2015-10-09 |
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English |
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| ISSN |
1364-8152 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4695 |
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| Author |
Sándor, R.; Barcza, Z.; Hidy, D.; Lellei-Kovács, E.; Ma, S.; Bellocchi, G. |
| Title |
Modelling of grassland fluxes in Europe: evaluation of two biogeochemical models |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. |
| Volume |
215 |
Issue |
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Pages |
1-19 |
| Keywords |
carbon-water fluxes; climate change; grasslands; model comparison; net ecosystem exchange; terrestrial carbon balance; pasture simulation-model; climate-change; nitrous-oxide; land-use; co2; photosynthesis; responses; water |
| Abstract |
Two independently developed simulation models – the grassland-specific PaSim and the biome-generic Biome-BGC MuSo (BBGC MuSo) – linking climate, soil, vegetation and management to ecosystem biogeochemical cycles were compared in a simulation of carbon (C) and water fluxes. The results were assessed against eddy-covariance flux data from five observational grassland sites representing a range of conditions in Europe: Grillenburg in Germany, Laqueuille in France with both extensive and intensive management, Monte Bondone in Italy and Oensingen in Switzerland. Model comparison (after calibration) gave substantial agreement, the performances being marginal to acceptable for weekly-aggregated gross primary production and ecosystem respiration (R-2 similar to 0.66 – 0.91), weekly evapotranspiration (R-2 similar to 0.78 – 0.94), soil water content in the topsoil (R-2 similar to 0.1 -0.7) and soil temperature (R-2 similar to 0.88 – 0.96). The bias was limited to the range -13 to 9 g C m(-2) week(-1) for C fluxes (-11 to 8 g C m(-2) week(-1) in case of BBGC MuSo, and -13 to 9 g C m(-2) week(-1) in case of PaSim) and -4 to 6 mm week for water fluxes (with BBGC MuSo providing somewhat higher estimates than PaSim), but some higher relative root mean square errors indicate low accuracy for prediction, especially for net ecosystem exchange The sensitivity of simulated outputs to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature and precipitation indicate, with certain agreement between the two models, that C outcomes are dominated by [CO2] and temperature gradients, and are less due to precipitation. ET rates decrease with increasing [CO2] in PaSim (consistent with experimental knowledge), while lack of appropriate stomatal response could be a limit in BBGC MuSo responsiveness. Results of the study indicate that some of the errors might be related to the improper representation of soil water content and soil temperature. Improvement is needed in the model representations of soil processes (especially soil water balance) that strongly influence the biogeochemical cycles of managed and unmanaged grasslands. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| Address |
2016-10-31 |
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English |
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0167-8809 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4808 |
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| Author |
Zhai, R.; Tao, F. |
| Title |
Contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change in seven typical catchments across China |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Science of the Total Environment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Sci. Tot. Environ. |
| Volume |
605 |
Issue |
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Pages |
219-229 |
| Keywords |
Catchments; Detection; Attribution; Runoff; VIC; Water resource; Weihe River-Basin; Hydrologic Response; Temporal-Changes; Loess Plateau; United-States; Yellow-River; Streamflow; Impacts; Variability; Model |
| Abstract |
Climate change and human activities are two major factors affecting water resource change. It is important to understand the roles of the major factors in affecting runoff change in different basins for watershed management. Here, we investigated the trends in climate and runoff in seven typical catchments in seven basins across China from 1961 to 2014. Then we attributed the runoff change to climate change and human activities in each catchment and in three time periods (1980s, 1990s and 2000s), using the VIC model and long-term runoff observation data. During 1961-2014, temperature increased significantly, while the trends in precipitation were insignificant in most of the catchments and inconsistent among the catchments. The runoff in most of the catchments showed a decreasing trend except the Yingluoxia catchment in the northwestern China. The contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change varied in different catchments and time periods. In the 1980s, climate change contributed more to runoff change than human activities, which was 84%, 59%,-66%,-50%, 59%, 94%, and -59% in the Nianzishan, Yingluoxia, Xiahui, Yangjiaping, Sanjiangkou, Xixian, and Changle catchment, respectively. After that, human activities had played a more essential role in runoff change. In the 1990s and 2000s, human activities contributed more to runoff change than in the 1980s. The contribution by human activities accounted for 84%,- 68%, and 67% in the Yingluoxia, Xiahui, and Sanjiangkou catchment, respectively, in the 1990s; and -96%,-67%,-94%, and -142% in the Nianzishan, Yangjiaping, Xixian, and Changle catchment, respectively, in the 2000s. It is also noted that after 2000 human activities caused decrease in runoff in all catchments except the Yingluoxia. Our findings highlight that the effects of human activities, such as increase in water withdrawal, land use/cover change, operation of dams and reservoirs, should be well managed. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| Address |
2017-09-14 |
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English |
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0048-9697 |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5177 |
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| Author |
Shrestha, S.; Abdalla, M.; Hennessy, T.; Forristal, D.; Jones, M.B. |
| Title |
Irish farms under climate change – is there a regional variation on farm responses? |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Agricultural Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Agric. Sci. |
| Volume |
153 |
Issue |
03 |
Pages |
385-398 |
| Keywords |
change impacts; elevated co2; potential impacts; maize production; united-states; winter-wheat; plant-growth; adaptation; ireland; yield |
| Abstract |
The current paper aims to determine regional impacts of climate change on Irish farms examining the variation in farm responses. A set of crop growth models were used to determine crop and grass yields under a baseline scenario and a future climate scenario. These crop and grass yields were used along with farm-level data taken from the Irish National Farm Survey in an optimizing farm-level (farm-level linear programming) model, which maximizes farm profits under limiting resources. A change in farm net margins under the climate change scenario compared to the baseline scenario was taken as a measure to determine the effect of climate change on farms. The growth models suggested a decrease in cereal crop yields (up to 9%) but substantial increase in yields of forage maize (up to 97%) and grass (up to 56%) in all regions. Farms in the border, midlands and south-east regions suffered, whereas farms in all other regions generally fared better under the climate change scenario used in the current study. The results suggest that there is a regional variability between farms in their responses to the climate change scenario. Although substituting concentrate feed with grass feeds is the main adaptation on all livestock farms, the extent of such substitution differs between farms in different regions. For example, large dairy farms in the south-east region adopted total substitution of concentrate feed while similar dairy farms in the south-west region opted to replace only 0.30 of concentrate feed. Farms in most of the regions benefitted from increasing stocking rate, except for sheep farms in the border and dairy farms in the south-east regions. The tillage farms in the mid-east region responded to the climate change scenario by shifting arable production to beef production on farms. |
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English |
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0021-8596 1469-5146 |
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CropM, TradeM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4542 |
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