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Kipling, R. P., Topp, C. F. E., Bannink, A., Bartley, D. J., Blanco-Penedo, I., Cortignani, R., et al. (2019). To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers. Env. Model. Softw., 120, Unsp 104492.
Abstract: Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.
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Zhang, S., Tao, F., & Zhang, Z. (2016). Changes in extreme temperatures and their impacts on rice yields in southern China from 1981 to 2009. Field Crops Research, 189, 43–50.
Abstract: Extreme temperature impacts on field crop are of key concern and increasingly assessed, however the studies have seldom taken into account the automatic adaptations such as shifts in planting dates, phenological dynamics and cultivars. In this present study, trial data on rice phenology, agro-meteorological hazards and yields during 1981-2009 at 120 national agro-meteorological experiment stations were used. The detailed data provide us a unique opportunity to quantify extreme temperature impacts on rice yield more precisely and in a setting with automatic adaptations. In this study, changes in an accumulated thermal index (growing degree day, GDD), a high temperature stress index (>35 degrees C high temperature degree day, HDD), and a cold stress index (<20 degrees C cold degree day, CDD), were firstly investigated. Then, their impacts on rice yield were further quantified by a multivariable analysis. The results showed that in the past three decades, for early rice, late rice and single rice in western part, and single rice in other parts of the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, respectively, rice yield increased by 5.83%, 1.71%, 8.73% and 3.49% due to increase in GDD. Rice yield was generally more sensitive to high temperature stress than to cold temperature stress. It decreased by 0.14%, 0.32%, 0.34% and 0.14% due to increase in HDD, by contrast increased by 1.61%, 0.26%, 0.16% and 0.01% due to decrease in CDD, respectively. In addition, decreases in solar radiation reduced rice yield by 0.96%, 0.13%, 9.34% and 6.02%. In the past three decades, the positive impacts of increase in GDD and the negative impacts of decrease in solar radiation played dominant roles in determining overall climate impacts on yield. However, with climate warming in future, the positive impacts of increase in GDD and decrease in CDD will be offset by increase in HDD, resulting in overall negative climate impacts on yield. Our findings highlight the risk of heat stress on rice yield and the importance of developing integrated adaptation strategies to cope with heat stress.
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Bai, H., & Tao, F. (2017). Sustainable intensification options to improve yield potential and ecoefficiency for rice-wheat rotation system in China. Field Crops Research, 211, 89–105.
Abstract: Agricultural production systems are facing the challenges of increasing food production while reducing environmental cost, particularly in China. To improve yield potential and eco-efficiency simultaneously for the rice-wheat rotation system in China, we investigated changes in potential yields and yield gaps based on the field experiment data from 1981 to 2009 at four representative agro-meteorological experiment stations, along with the Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) rice-wheat model. We further optimized crop cultivar and sowing/transplanting date, and investigated crop yield, water and nitrogen use efficiency, and environment impact of the rice-wheat rotation system in response to water and nitrogen supply. We found that the yield gaps between potential yields and farmer’s yields were about 8101 kg/ha or 45.3% of the potential yield, which had been shrinking from 1981 to 2009. To improve yield potentials and eco-efficiency, the cultivars of rice and wheat that properly increase both radiation use efficiency and grain weight are promising. Rice cultivars breeding need to maintain the length of panicle development and reproductive phase. High-yielding wheat cultivars are characterized by medium vernalization sensitivity, low photoperiod sensitivity and short length of floral initiation phase. Proper shift in sowing date can alleviate the negative effect of climate risk. Intermittent irrigation scheme (irrigate until surface soil saturated when average water content of surface soil is < 50% of saturated water content) for rice, together with nitrogen application rate of 390-420 kg N/ha (180-210 kg N/ha for rice and 210 kg N/ha for wheat), is suggested for the rice-wheat rotation system to maintain high yield with high resource use efficiency. This suggested nitrogen application rates are lower than those currently used by many local farmers. Our findings are useful to improve yield potential and eco-efficiency for the rice-wheat rotation system in China. Furthermore, this study demonstrates an effective approach with crop modelling to design fanning system for sustainable intensification, which can be adapted to other farming systems and regions.
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Xiao, D. P., & Tao, F. L. (2016). Contributions of cultivar shift, management practice and climate change to maize yield in North China Plain in 1981-2009. International Journal of Biometeorology, 60(7), 1111–1122.
Abstract: The impact of climate change on crop yield is compounded by cultivar shifts and agronomic management practices. To determine the relative contributions of climate change, cultivar shift, and management practice to changes in maize (Zea mays L.) yield in the past three decades, detailed field data for 1981-2009 from four representative experimental stations in North China Plain (NCP) were analyzed via model simulation. The four representative experimental stations are geographically and climatologically different, represent the typical cropping system in the study area, and have more complete weather/crop records for the period of 1981-2009. The results showed that while the shift from traditional to modern cultivar increased yield by 23.9-40.3 %, new fertilizer management increased yield by 3.3-8.6 %. However, the trends in climate variables for 1981-2009 reduced maize yield by 15-30 % in the study area. Among the main climate variables, solar radiation had the largest effect on maize yield, followed by temperature and then precipitation. While a significant decline in solar radiation in 1981-2009 (maybe due to air pollution) reduced yield by 12-24 %, a significant increase in temperature reduced yield by 3-9 %. In contrast, a non-significant increase in precipitation during the maize growth period increased yield by 0.9-3 % at three of the four investigated stations. However, a decline in precipitation reduced yield by 3 % in the remaining station. The study revealed that although the shift from traditional to modern cultivars and agronomic management practices contributed most to the increase in maize yield, the negative impact of climate change was large enough to offset 46-67 % of the trend in the observed yields in the past three decades in NCP. The reduction in solar radiation, especially in the most critical period of maize growth, limited the process of photosynthesis and thereby further reduced maize yield.
Keywords: Adaptation; Agronomic practice; Maize yield; Negative impact; Climate; change; model; variability; performance; simulation; province; apsim; gaps
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Tao, F., Zhang, Z., Zhang, S., & Rötter, R. P. (2016). Variability in crop yields associated with climate anomalies in China over the past three decades. Reg Environ Change, 16(6), 1715–1723.
Abstract: We used simple and explicit methods, as well as improved datasets for climate, crop phenology and yields, to address the association between variability in crop yields and climate anomalies in China from 1980 to 2008. We identified the most favourable and unfavourable climate conditions and the optimum temperatures for crop productivity in different regions of China. We found that the simultaneous occurrence of high temperatures, low precipitation and high solar radiation was unfavourable for wheat, maize and soybean productivity in large portions of northern, northwestern and northeastern China; this was because of droughts induced by warming or an increase in solar radiation. These climate anomalies could cause yield losses of up to 50 % for wheat, maize and soybeans in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. High precipitation and low solar radiation were unfavourable for crop productivity throughout southeastern China and could cause yield losses of approximately 20 % for rice and 50 % for wheat and maize. High temperatures were unfavourable for rice productivity in southwestern China because they induced heat stress, which could cause rice yield losses of approximately 20 %. In contrast, high temperatures and low precipitation were favourable for rice productivity in northeastern and eastern China. We found that the optimum temperatures for high yields were crop specific and had an explicit spatial pattern. These findings improve our understanding of the impacts of extreme climate events on agricultural production in different regions of China.
Keywords: Adaptation; Climate change; Climate extremes; Drought; Impacts and vulnerability
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