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Author Milford, A.B.; Le Mouel, C.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S.
Title Drivers of meat consumption Type Journal Article
Year 2019 Publication Appetite Abbreviated Journal Appetite
Volume 141 Issue Pages Unsp 104313
Keywords (down) Meat consumption; Nutrition transition; Climate change mitigation; Cross-country analysis; nutrition transition; food; sustainability; globalization; countries; future; health; income; price
Abstract Increasing global levels of meat consumption are a threat to the environment and to human health. To identify measures that may change consumption patterns towards more plant-based foods, it is necessary to improve our understanding of the causes behind the demand for meat. In this paper we use data from 137 different countries to identify and assess factors that influence meat consumption at the national level using a cross-country multivariate regression analysis. We specify either total meat or ruminant meat as the dependent variable and we consider a broad range of potential drivers of meat consumption. The combination of explanatory variables we use is new for this type of analysis. In addition, we estimate the relative importance of the different drivers. We find that income per capita followed by rate of urbanisation are the two most important drivers of total meat consumption per capita. Income per capita and natural endowment factors are major drivers of ruminant meat consumption per capita. Other drivers are Western culture, Muslim religion, female labour participation, economic and social globalisation and meat prices. The main identified drivers of meat demand are difficult to influence through direct policy intervention. Thus, acting indirectly on consumers’ preferences and consumption habits (for instance through information, education policy and increased availability of ready-made plant based products) could be of key importance for mitigating the rise of meat consumption per capita all over the world.
Address 2020-02-14
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0195-6663 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5224
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Author Eyshi Rezaei, E.; Webber, H.; Gaiser, T.; Naab, J.; Ewert, F.
Title Heat stress in cereals: Mechanisms and modelling Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication European Journal of Agronomy Abbreviated Journal European Journal of Agronomy
Volume 64 Issue Pages 98-113
Keywords (down) high temperature; heat stress; cereal yield; climate change impact; crop modelling; high-temperature stress; tropical maize hybrids; triticum-aestivum l; high-yielding rice; induced spikelet sterility; stem reserve mobilization; climate-change impacts; oryza-sativa l.; grain-yield; kernel set
Abstract Increased climate variability and higher mean temperatures are expected across many world regions, both of which will contribute to more frequent extreme high temperatures events. Empirical evidence increasingly shows that short episodes of high temperature experienced around flowering can have large negative impacts on cereal grain yields, a phenomenon increasingly referred to as heat stress. Crop models are currently the best tools available to investigate how crops will grow under future climatic conditions, though the need to include heat stress effects has been recognized only relatively recently. We reviewed literature on both how key crop physiological processes and the observed yields under production conditions are impacted by high temperatures occurring particularly in the flowering and grain filling phases for wheat, maize and rice. This state of the art in crop response to heat stress was then contrasted with generic approaches to simulate the impacts of high temperatures in crop growth models. We found that the observed impacts of heat stress on crop yield are the end result of the integration of many processes, not all of which will be affected by a “high temperature” regime. This complexity confirms an important role for crop models in systematizing the effects of high temperatures on many processes under a range of environments and realizations of crop phenology. Four generic approaches to simulate high temperature impacts on yield were identified: (1) empirical reduction of final yield, (2) empirical reduction in daily increment in harvest index, (3) empirical reduction in grain number, and (4) semi-deterministic models of sink and source limitation. Consideration of canopy temperature is suggested as a promising approach to concurrently account for heat and drought stress, which are likely to occur simultaneously. Improving crop models’ response to high temperature impacts on cereal yields will require experimental data representative of field production and should be designed to connect what is already known about physiological responses and observed yield impacts. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Address 2016-06-01
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1161-0301 ISBN Medium Review
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4741
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Author Gutierrez, L.; Piras, F.; Roggero, P.P.
Title A global vector autoregression model for the analysis of wheat export prices Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication American Journal of Agricultural Economics Abbreviated Journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics
Volume 97 Issue 5 Pages 1494-1511
Keywords (down) Global dynamic models; price analysis; wheat market; lagged dependent-variables; commodity-markets; error-correction; food-prices; unit-root; regressors; tests; cointegration; dynamics; time
Abstract Food commodity price fluctuations have an important impact on poverty and food insecurity across the world. Conventional models have not provided a complete picture of recent price spikes in agricultural commodity markets, and there is an urgent need for appropriate policy responses. Perhaps new approaches are needed to better understand international spill-overs, the feedback between the real and the financial sectors, as well as the link between food and energy prices. In this article, we present the results from a new worldwide dynamic model that provides the short and long-run impulse responses of the international wheat price to various real and financial shocks.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0002-9092 1467-8276 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4658
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Author Liu, X.; Lehtonen, H.; Purola, T.; Pavlova, Y.; Rötter, R.; Palosuo, T.
Title Dynamic economic modelling of crop rotations with farm management practices under future pest pressure Type Journal Article
Year 2016 Publication Agricultural Systems Abbreviated Journal Agricultural Systems
Volume 144 Issue Pages 65-76
Keywords (down) Farm management; Dynamic optimization; Crop rotation; Risk aversion; Climate change; Prices; climate-change; sequester carbon; changing climate; food security; challenge; Finland; ensembles; systems; europe; tool
Abstract Agricultural practice is facing multiple challenges under volatile commodity markets, inevitable climate change, mounting pest pressure and various other environment-related constraints. The objective of this research is to present a dynamic optimization model of crop rotations and farm management and show its suitability for economic analysis over a 30 year time period. In this model, we include management practices such as fertilization, fungicide treatment and liming, and apply it in a region in Southwestern Finland. Results show that (i) growing pest pressure favours the cultivation of wheat-oats and wheat-oilseeds combinations, while (ii) market prices largely determine the crops in the rotation plan and the specific management practices adopted. The flexibility of our model can also be utilized in evaluating the value of other management options such as new cultivars under different projections of future climate and market conditions.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0308521x ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, TradeM, ftnotmacsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4719
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Author Zhang, S.; Tao, F.; Zhang, Z.
Title Uncertainty from model structure is larger than that from model parameters in simulating rice phenology in China Type Journal Article
Year 2017 Publication European Journal of Agronomy Abbreviated Journal Europ. J. Agron.
Volume 87 Issue Pages 30-39
Keywords (down) Crop model, Extreme weather, Impacts, Rice development rate, Uncertainty; Climate-Change; Growth Duration; Crop Model; Ceres-Rice; Wheat; Temperature; Impact; Yield; Optimization; Performance
Abstract Rice models have been widely used in simulating and predicting rice phenology in contrasting climate zones, however the uncertainties from model structure (different equations or models) and/or model parameters were rarely investigated. Here, five rice phenological models/modules (Le., CERES-Rice, ORYZA2000, RCM, Beta Model and SIMRIW) were applied to simulate rice phenology at 23 experimental stations from 1992 to 2009 in two major rice cultivation regions of China: the northeastern China and the southwestern China. To investigate the uncertainties from model biophysical parameters, each model was run with randomly perturbed 50 sets of parameters. The results showed that the median of ensemble simulations were better than the simulation by most models. Models couldn’t simulate well in some specific years despite of parameters optimization, suggesting model structure limit model performance in some cases. The models adopting accumulative thermal time function (e.g., CERES-Rice and ORYZA2000) had better performance in the southwestern China, in contrast, those adopting exponential function (e.g., Beta model and RCM model) had better performance in the northeastern China. In northeastern China, the contribution of model structure and model parameters to model total variance was, respectively, about 55.90% and 44.10% in simulating heading date, and about 75.43% and 24.57% in simulating maturity date. In the southwestern China, the contribution of model structure and model parameters to model total variance was, respectively, about 79.97% and 27.03% in simulating heading date, about 92.15% and 7.85% in simulating maturity date. Uncertainty from model structure was the most relevant source. The results highlight that the temperature response functions of rice development rate under extreme climate conditions should be improved based on environment-controlled experimental data.
Address 2017-08-07
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1161-0301 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5170
Permanent link to this record