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Author |
Trnka, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Title |
Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of the Royal Society Interface |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. R. Soc. Interface |
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Volume |
12 |
Issue |
112 |
Pages |
20150721 |
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Keywords  |
climate change; extreme events; food security; winter wheat |
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Abstract |
Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions. |
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2016-10-31 |
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1742-5689 1742-5662 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4819 |
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Author |
Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C. |
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Title |
Site-specific impacts of climate change on wheat production across regions of Germany using different CO2 response functions |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume |
52 |
Issue |
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Pages |
22-32 |
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Keywords |
climate change; co2 effect; crop yield; water use efficiency; groundwater; modeling nitrogen dynamics; winter-wheat; carbon-dioxide; assessing uncertainties; agricultural crops; potential impact; enrichment face; elevated co2; soil; simulation |
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Abstract |
Impact of climate change on crop growth, groundwater recharge and nitrogen leaching in winter wheat production in Germany was assessed using the agro-ecosystem model HERMES with a downscaled (WETTREG) climate change scenario A1B from the ECHAM5 global circulation model. Three alternative algorithms describing the impact of atmospheric CO2 concentration on crop growth (a simple Farquhar-type algorithm, a combined light-use efficiency – maximum assimilation approach and a simple scaling of the maximum assimilation rate) in combination with a Penman-Monteith approach which includes a simple stomata conduction model for evapotranspiration under changing CO2 concentrations were compared within the framework of the HERMES model. The effect of differences in regional climate change, site conditions and different CO2 algorithms on winter wheat yield, groundwater recharge and nitrogen leaching was assessed in 22 regional simulation case studies across Germany. Results indicate that the effects of climate change on wheat production will vary across Germany due to different regional expressions of climate change projection. Predicted yield changes between the reference period (1961-1990) and a future period (2021-2050) range from -0.4 t ha(-1), -0.8 t ha(-1) and -0.6 t ha(-1) at sites in southern Germany to +0.8 t ha(-1), +0.6 t ha(-1) and +0.8 t ha(-1) at coastal regions for the three CO2 algorithms, respectively. On average across all regions, a relative yield change of +0.9%, +3.0%, and +6.0%, respectively, was predicted for Germany. In contrast, a decrease of -11.6% was predicted without the consideration of a CO2 effect. However, simulated yield changes differed even within regions as site conditions had a strong influence on crop growth. Particularly, groundwater-affected sites showed a lower vulnerability to increasing drought risk. Groundwater recharge was estimated to change correspondingly to changes in precipitation. The consideration of the CO2 effect on transpiration in the model led to a prediction of higher rates of annual deep percolation (+16 mm on average across all sites), which was due to higher water-use efficiency of the crops. In contrast to groundwater recharge, simulated nitrogen leaching varied with the choice of the photosynthesis algorithm, predicting a slight reduction in most of the areas. The results underline the necessity of high-resolution data for model-based regional climate change impact assessment and development of adaptation measures. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4527 |
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Refsgaard, J.C.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Drews, M.; Halsnaes, K.; Jeppesen, E.; Madsen, H.; Markandya, A.; Olesen, J.E.; Porter, J.R.; Christensen, J.H. |
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Title |
The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies – a Danish water management example |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
Publication |
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change |
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18 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
337-359 |
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Keywords |
Climate change; Adaptation; Uncertainty; Risk; Water sectors; Multi-disciplinary; change impacts; global change; winter-wheat; models; scenarios; ensembles; denmark; vulnerability; community; knowledge |
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Abstract |
We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level and decision making: (i) epistemic uncertainties can be reduced by gaining more knowledge; (ii) uncertainties related to ambiguity can be reduced by dialogue and knowledge sharing between the different stakeholders; and (iii) aleatory uncertainty is, by its nature, non-reducible. The uncertainty cascade includes many sources and their propagation through technical and socio-economic models may add substantially to prediction uncertainties, but they may also cancel each other. Thus, even large uncertainties may have small consequences for decision making, because multiple sources of information provide sufficient knowledge to justify action in climate change adaptation. |
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1381-2386 1573-1596 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4613 |
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Shrestha, S.; Abdalla, M.; Hennessy, T.; Forristal, D.; Jones, M.B. |
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Title |
Irish farms under climate change – is there a regional variation on farm responses? |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
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Journal of Agricultural Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Agric. Sci. |
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Volume |
153 |
Issue |
03 |
Pages |
385-398 |
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Keywords |
change impacts; elevated co2; potential impacts; maize production; united-states; winter-wheat; plant-growth; adaptation; ireland; yield |
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Abstract |
The current paper aims to determine regional impacts of climate change on Irish farms examining the variation in farm responses. A set of crop growth models were used to determine crop and grass yields under a baseline scenario and a future climate scenario. These crop and grass yields were used along with farm-level data taken from the Irish National Farm Survey in an optimizing farm-level (farm-level linear programming) model, which maximizes farm profits under limiting resources. A change in farm net margins under the climate change scenario compared to the baseline scenario was taken as a measure to determine the effect of climate change on farms. The growth models suggested a decrease in cereal crop yields (up to 9%) but substantial increase in yields of forage maize (up to 97%) and grass (up to 56%) in all regions. Farms in the border, midlands and south-east regions suffered, whereas farms in all other regions generally fared better under the climate change scenario used in the current study. The results suggest that there is a regional variability between farms in their responses to the climate change scenario. Although substituting concentrate feed with grass feeds is the main adaptation on all livestock farms, the extent of such substitution differs between farms in different regions. For example, large dairy farms in the south-east region adopted total substitution of concentrate feed while similar dairy farms in the south-west region opted to replace only 0.30 of concentrate feed. Farms in most of the regions benefitted from increasing stocking rate, except for sheep farms in the border and dairy farms in the south-east regions. The tillage farms in the mid-east region responded to the climate change scenario by shifting arable production to beef production on farms. |
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0021-8596 1469-5146 |
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CropM, TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4542 |
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Özkan, Ş.; Hill, J.; Cullen, B. |
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Title |
Effect of climate variability on pasture-based dairy feeding systems in south-east Australia |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Animal Production Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Animal Production Science |
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55 |
Issue |
9 |
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1106-1116 |
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Keywords |
carry-forward surplus; conserved-hay; probability; winter deficit; grown forage consumption; new-zealand; nutritive characteristics; interannual variation; botanical composition; herbage accumulation; crop; systems; cows; management; profit |
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The Australian dairy industry relies primarily on pasture for its feed supply. However, the variability in climate affects plant growth, leading to uncertainty in dryland pasture supply. This paper models the impact of climate variability on pasture production and examines the potential of two pasture-based dairy feeding systems: (1) to experience winter deficits; (2) to carry forward the conserved pasture surpluses as silage for future use; and (3) to conserve pasture surpluses as hay. The two dairy feeding systems examined were a traditional perennial ryegrass-based feeding system (ryegrass max. – RM) and a system that incorporated double cropping into the perennial ryegrass pasture base (complementary forage – CF). The conditional probability of the RM and CF systems to generate pasture deficits in winter were 94% and 96%, respectively. Both systems could carry forward the surplus silage into the following lactation almost once in every 4-5 years with the RM system performing slightly better than the CF system. The proportions of the grain-based concentrates fed in the two systems were 25% and 27% for the RM and CF systems, respectively. This study suggests that double-cropping systems have the potential to provide high-quality feed to support the feed gaps when pasture is not available due to increased variability in climatic conditions. |
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2015-09-23 |
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1836-5787 |
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LiveM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4689 |
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